In this episode, we share a recording of a BICOM media briefing led by Richard Pater with Lt. Col. (res.) Sarit Zehavi, marking one year since Operation Northern Arrows in Lebanon. Sarit delivered a detailed assessment of Hezbollah’s capacity and capabilities, Israel’s campaign to degrade the organisation, and the challenges of the post-ceasefire environment.
Lt. Col. (res.) Sarit Zehavi is the founder and president of the Alma Research and Education Center, with 15 years of experience as an IDF intelligence officer.
Transcript
(This transcript has been automatically generated by AI — please excuse any potential errors.)
00:00:00:00 – 00:00:22:01
Welcome to the latest bike on briefing. I’m Richard Pater, the Director of BICOM. This briefing is focused on marking the year anniversary since Operation Northern Arrows, which, if you recall, began with the audacious beeper and walkie talkie attack following. Then the decapitation of the Hezbollah leadership and then a brief limited ground operation into southern Lebanon.
00:00:22:03 – 00:00:42:05
To discuss this, I’m delighted to welcome back, Lieutenant Colonel (Res.) Sarit Zehavi. Kind of reserves. Sorry. It’s a heavy sorry. Thank you very much indeed for joining us today and for a little bit of background. So Wheaton’s the founder and president of Alma, which is a nonprofit and independent research and education centre specialising in Israel’s security challenges in the northern border.
00:00:42:07 – 00:01:06:12
Before that, she served over 15 years as an intelligence officer with the IDF, focused on northern Command and for full that full disclosure. And Michael was privileged to have been working with, with Sarit since since her time in uniform and can endorse, Center Excellence Center in the North, providing really great, resource for intelligence and analysis on the northern border.
00:01:06:14 – 00:01:26:09
So I’ll hand over to you now. So perhaps if you want to, in your opening comments, kind of relates in kind of the highlights of the and the kind of the most profound, aspects of the war of the operation that a year ago and then discuss perhaps Hezbollah’s current capacity and its relationship into relationship with the new Lebanese government.
00:01:26:15 – 00:01:58:19
And then we’ll open it up for questions from everyone. So sorry. Thank you. And over to you. Thank you very much. I want to start actually forming this with a sense of, of personal, point of view because I live nine kilometers from the Lebanese border. And that morning in October, eight, and when she started the shooting and way before in October 7th, with everything that was going on in the South, I was positive that we are going to have an invasion from the North as well.
00:01:58:21 – 00:02:25:19
And I evacuated my kids. And actually, since that day in October 8th, for 14 months, I lived under fire and everything. I could see everything from my balcony. I could hear all the gas, the 24 seven. And we also have had some hits, in my hometown. And my daughter hardly went to school. So it was many, many months of, of no routine.
00:02:25:19 – 00:02:37:02
And that was pretty much a different person than what I am today. Speaking to you. Well, basically, calm down, comparing to what it used to be nine months ago.
00:02:37:02 – 00:02:44:10
This morning of October 8th, many people that are living up north and next to the border actually thought, like me.
00:02:44:12 – 00:03:11:06
And, didn’t wait for any government orders, and they, evacuated, from the north. What you can see in my map now is the 43 communities on the Israeli side of the border that were evacuated. And as I’ve said it, first independently and then by government orders, it’s about 60,000 Israelis. Today, I can say that more than 80% came back backed, there.
00:03:11:11 – 00:03:44:00
And communities which the numbers are varied from community to community. There are communities which are almost empty, their communities that are almost dead. And for returning of the of the residents. I’m talking about a little bit more about the situation of the people here today. If I’m going a little bit to statistics, you can see that, for many, many months, it was a pretty stable war of attrition with hundreds of attacks every month.
00:03:44:02 – 00:04:04:23
While, of course, you see a raise, during the IDF offensive in September, eventually we ended up in 46 civilians and 80 soldiers that were killed in the northern front of Israel during the war. I want to say something about the types of weapons. As you can see, she’s very used. Mostly rockets. But not only rockets.
00:04:04:23 – 00:04:35:13
The rockets are inaccurate. They can be intercepted by random, in large numbers. But, the the fact that they’re inaccurate enabled Hezbollah to say that they are launching to an army bases. But kilometers away, rockets landed, rockets landed in our communities or the main roads. By the way, main roads were not secure. It was a huge problem here because Iron Dome doesn’t intercept rockets.
00:04:35:13 – 00:05:07:24
It’s all about to foreign open areas and main roads in the Galilee. There’s open areas. We didn’t even hear the sirens in some of those places. And we were supposed to keep routine and go to work and actually. And each time you you’re going to buy milk in some of those communities which are very small, you’re risking your life going through those open areas, the anti-tank missiles that you can see, in brown, in, in my graph here are very, very accurate, are quite the opposite, are very, very accurate.
00:05:08:01 – 00:05:41:19
For very short distances, we used mostly against the communities that were evacuated, even though they were used against some of the civilians. This stayed or foreign workers or workers that were farmers into cultivate in the fields. Every launch is a hit because Iron Dome cannot intercept them. And they are really a problem also with the discussion of whether people can come back because we’re not only afraid from the infiltration, they were also afraid from those anti-tank missiles, the drones.
00:05:41:21 – 00:06:01:17
You saw it clearly in a lot, just in the, in the past few days. Right away I, my my nephew was like 100m from where it is. We were all in a lot during the holiday. It is a problem. They fly very low and that way, it’s really difficult to trace them. We suffered from that in the North.
00:06:01:19 – 00:06:32:09
And many of them actually heat or heat. For example, in the area they hit, buildings of, I don’t know, six, eight floors because they fly very low. And that way they hit civilian places. Only once, the, offensive, the IDF offensive started. The IDF actually admitted that from the beginning of the war, there were special forces, operations very, very close to defense itself.
00:06:32:11 – 00:07:10:01
While in those operation, IDF raised the preparedness, the preparedness of Hezbollah, for for the for launching the invasion plan. And I want to say something about, this invasion plan, which you can see, in the video here, this is a video that was published by police, but, a decade ago, in Hezbollah, in Lebanese TV station that is affiliated with Queensborough and then under the title The Offensive plan, to take over the Galilee with 5000 of an affiliate of fighters.
00:07:10:03 – 00:07:34:05
The when I saw this video again in October 8th, after Hezbollah opened fire against these, I, this is what Hamas actually executed. It’s step by step, the same as what Hamas had done. The English translation here is, was made by us in the Ottoman Santa. And you can see clearly that the target is the the civilian, communities.
00:07:34:07 – 00:07:54:09
And the idea is to take over those communities and also to, to take civilians to become human shields. It is mentioned in the, in the plan here, to block the main roads and to make sure that rescue forces cannot arrive and also to invade from various areas along the border line. And I’m not going to show you the whole video.
00:07:54:09 – 00:08:20:10
It’s a few minutes video, but you can see, jumping into the end of it. You can see, how it looks like this is exactly what Hamas said. Then, Hamas adopted Hezbollah’s plan. I want to say something about that. But I didn’t give up its plan to, invade or infiltrate into Israel throughout the war.
00:08:20:12 – 00:08:52:00
This was negotiated and discussed between, inside the leadership of Hezbollah throughout the war. And I will give you two examples that can demonstrate what I’m saying. Just a few days ago, Hezbollah published a conversation between, Ibrahim Mackey was the head of operations, and she’s and and didn’t assign self. And they were discussing, how exactly to invade whether it should be an infiltration.
00:08:52:02 – 00:09:21:21
And we don’t know what the exact date of this, of this conversation, but we understand that it was during the war. So he’s. But I was fully prepared. The forces were fully prepared on the border line during the war to launch it. The second example is the fact that the same guy, Ibrahim AQ, was killed by the IDF in September 20th, along with 14 commandos of Radwan brigades of the elite unit of his brother that was supposed to launch the invasion.
00:09:21:21 – 00:09:55:13
They were discussing something over there. We don’t know exactly which option they discussed. Were there a full invasion or just infiltration from a few places? But the option, was there. And I think that in the sight of, made a mistake and a slight, wanted to preserve is achievement of evacuation. And and if you like, withdrawal of Israel from its north from the five kilometers next to the border.
00:09:55:15 – 00:10:31:01
And he thought this would be enough for a great achievement in this war. And that’s why he shouldn’t launch his right to armed forces. Not everybody in Hezbollah agreed with him. Ibrahim Aquil, as I’ve said, is a good example. Put in in the chat now a link to the piece that we just published, around that, I think that pretty much from, the summer of 2024, we started to see how this man is trying to push the evacuation area further south.
00:10:31:01 – 00:10:59:10
How do I conclude that if I’m going back to statistics, I can see that from June 2024, there is a raise, a dramatic raise, if you like, in the amount of attacks against areas that are not evacuated. I like as a researcher, nobody would have noticed that unless you live here. And since I live here, I told my staff something different is happening.
00:10:59:12 – 00:11:29:01
Please give me the numbers and we so that much more is being launched to areas that are not evacuated. And that’s why I had more sirens in my home town and also a heat in my hometown. Eventually it was kind of a gradual escalation, and part of it was the rockets that fell in the roofs down and Israel declared, that is, it is going for an offensive, to bring back the residents of the North.
00:11:29:01 – 00:12:01:09
And the goals of these offensive were very different from the goals in Gaza, for instance. And you can see them here, very clearly. The idea was to actually remove the strategic threat, of Hezbollah, either with the rockets or with the fire, if you like, or with the idea of invasion. And I can say that the beepers attack, was the opening, opening day of this campaign.
00:12:01:11 – 00:12:33:23
But I think that during this campaign, Israel actually took off most of the centers of power of Hezbollah. So the pagers attack, took off the capability of Hezbollah to communicate. There was nobody to give orders. All they were afraid to give orders, to from being revealed. I think this neutralized the capability to give the order to launch, rockets to Tel Aviv or to the invasion to the Galilee.
00:12:34:00 – 00:13:01:05
I think it also neutralized the commanders from the field commanders in app. And, today, when Lebanon is publishing the amount of of dead and wounded, we understand how accurate and how important was this pagers attack the historic meaning of this attack. But this, of course, was not the only reason why. But I was dramatically weakened. Also, the killing of the leadership.
00:13:01:07 – 00:13:26:11
Nasrallah is a key figure. Hizbollah is in the Silent Valley. But now we can discuss this question. But in a sense, he was dead. And number two leader after, community and the Muslim Shiite axis. And we also a few days later killed the one who was supposed to be his successor, Hashem Safia. Then there are now memorials for these two personalities, in Lebanon.
00:13:26:13 – 00:13:56:02
The third is the elimination of 80% of the rockets and fire capabilities of Chris Van at. But 80% means that they still have a few, thousands of rockets. I can tell you that until the last day of the war, until the cease fire in the past, in the last three months, during the idea for offensive in Lebanon is to launch an average of 100 rocket today, sometimes more, sometimes less, but about 100 rockets a day.
00:13:56:04 – 00:14:23:01
And I believe they still have, much of that. Yet it looks like that most of the advanced weapons, was eliminated, so I’m not sure they can launch to evacuate weapons and things like that. The fourth is the damage to, income, to the sources of income of Hezbollah, mainly the energy infrastructure and also the attack against its banks called Hassan.
00:14:23:03 – 00:14:51:03
Yet, I think this is a constant, campaign that, a little bit neglected today. And I think we should go back to this campaign in the end of November 2024. We have a cease fire. Unfortunately, this fire is, relying on 1701 United Nations Security Council, 1701 from 20 years ago. 19 years ago, actually, that ended the previous conflict.
00:14:51:05 – 00:15:17:03
And the idea of 17. Oh one is that the disarmament of Hezbollah will be first and foremost in south of the Litani River. While there is no deadline for the disarmament of that. Unfortunately, until today, nine months since the cease fire is. But I was not disarm in South Lebanon and South event, and there is no deadline for the disarmament of Hezbollah.
00:15:17:03 – 00:16:01:22
There is some kind of a plan that was approved by the Lebanese government. But, we didn’t see any deadline for that, and we didn’t even see, benchmarks of, how long it’s going to take in this place or how long or to this weapon, something that can give us something to say. Okay. We we understand the scene that’s happening IDF right after, the offensive and during the offensive published a lot of evidence of what it had found inside, the Lebanese houses, inside the children’s bedrooms, and also in the open areas where Unifil was supposed to operate and find all those weapons.
00:16:01:22 – 00:16:36:17
I’m showing you only really a tip of the eyes, part of an exhibition. Photos that I took when I visited this exhibition of the IDF, of weapons that were pulled out of Lebanon. You can see all these boxes in the picture are full of weapons. And all of this was, either used or prepared for be to be used like the helmets and the vests, in a scenario or of invasion.
00:16:36:19 – 00:17:08:11
Look, for many Israelis like me, the fact that the ceasefire is based on 1701 was, another nightmare, a feeling that we’ve been there, done that. We are back in 2006, Hezbollah will be focusing on reconstruction of its military capabilities. Israel’s hands will be tied from preventing that. And the Lebanese government will continue to play games, which it is.
00:17:08:13 – 00:17:38:00
But actually, two players changed here, which is Israel. It’s a different policy today. And the American government that had a signed letter, that actually gave us, the support in the acting against those violations. And when I’m saying violations, I mean, the reconstruction of the military deployment of Hezbollah in South Lebanon and elsewhere, this is very important.
00:17:38:02 – 00:18:13:04
The new cease fire is not only solely based on 1701. It also established a mechanism that involves, hands on France and the United States. This means that there is a better dialog than all or most dialog, between the parties on what’s going on. The Lebanese government is busy with a lot of statements and resolutions and a lot of things that that, that, they can say that they are doing something.
00:18:13:04 – 00:18:49:01
But when you get to the details, we don’t see enough. For example, and pictures were published of the disarmament of Palestinian refugee camps. We didn’t see the same pictures of trucks loaded with ammunition, published around the weapons of Hezbollah. And even with regard to the Palestinian refugee camps, the amount of weapons that was taken out in ten trucks is very, very far from the reality, from the true amount of weapons that is stored in those places.
00:18:49:03 – 00:19:13:14
And again, we are nine months into the process. Is back from its part, lost, as I’ve said, a lot of things during the campaign, it didn’t lose one thing very, very important. It didn’t lose the motivation for what they call resistance motivation to fight Israel. It didn’t lose its loyalty to its identity or it is to the weapon.
00:19:13:16 – 00:19:46:01
It didn’t lose its identity, which is the loyalty to the supreme leader of Iran, which is the, distribution of the Islamic revolution values. This is what Hezbollah is. And in this respect, it didn’t change. It’s very comfortable for me to say that Hezbollah is very busy today in the reconstruction and by the way, especially the military reconstruction, much more than the civilian one with a lot of economic difficulties.
00:19:46:03 – 00:20:17:12
But I cannot overrule a scenario that there will be a terrorist attack from the Lebanese border, either launching of rockets or and infiltration of the August. Now, I want to give you some examples to this. Like I’m trying to to portray the, complicated picture here of the full, part of the cap, if you like, in the empty part of the cap, I open it that I’m not translating in Hebrew expression to a bad English.
00:20:17:14 – 00:20:42:19
But just to give you some examples, examples is behind the stands that all eyes out on south to the Litani River. And that’s why, a great dilemma, part of its military activity today is north of the Litani River. And this is an area where the Lebanese army is just a nonstarter. It is not doing anything against trees back in those places.
00:20:42:19 – 00:21:17:00
Remember, the idea is 1701 thousand trees. But I understand that, it is becoming more and more difficult to smuggle weapons from Syria. By the way, the Syrian new government is, fighting against those, smuggling efforts, again and again and again and publishing a lot of people around it, publishing what they find much more was published by the Syrian administration, then by, by the Lebanese army, for example.
00:21:17:02 – 00:21:45:09
But some of we do do pass and also Hezbollah understands that like Hamas in the past, if you like that, maybe it’s better to try to develop, infrastructures of manufacturing inside Lebanon. Just this morning, just before I came into this webinar, there was an IDF statement that a factory for manufacturing of accurate missiles was banned in the car.
00:21:45:11 – 00:22:12:03
In the car is the area, next to the border with Syria? This is very problematic. The fact that is doing that and the fact that these are honest with them, in the past, we so one of the very few Israeli attacks after the ceasefire in Beirut was against, an infrastructure of manufacturing of drones, for example.
00:22:12:05 – 00:22:41:22
She’s right, doesn’t have the capability to launch an invasion to the Galilee thanks to what the IDF had done during the offensive. But had one elite unit still exist, they’re rebuilding their capabilities again. Only a few weeks ago, IDF attacked training camps 051 brigades in the camp and attacked headquarters and attacked some other one, military operatives and some infrastructure is also, in South Lebanon.
00:22:41:24 – 00:23:13:16
Some of those military operatives, one, live in South Lebanon and they are trying to renew their military, military capabilities in those area. And basically, Hezbollah in the past nine months is going back to the same strategy that it used to have after 2006 of high mobility and high secrecy, by the way, a strategy that is pretty much abandoned in the past few years and before the war.
00:23:13:18 – 00:23:45:21
Hezbollah, as I’ve said, is busy in the military reconstruction. But at the same time, we see, I, we would I put it in and embedded all element integration between the military reconstruction and the civilian reconstruction, while the same, facilities, the same characters, the same, associations. Oh, assistance associations, doing both our busy with both.
00:23:45:23 – 00:24:05:18
This is not a new strategy of Hezbollah. This is something that they have been doing throughout the years, using civilian associations as a cover to their military, activities. And this is being done also today. And we published a lot of information around it. In the past months.
00:24:05:18 – 00:24:17:20
With the Lebanese Armed Forces, I know I’m aware of, of some statements that are coming out of Israel that the Lebanese Armed Forces in, in a different page.
00:24:17:22 – 00:24:39:07
And I’m sorry that I am not, a part of those statements. And I’ll tell you why. Because when you dig into the details, you don’t get any answers. I don’t get pictures like the one I’ve shown you of what the IDF took out of Lebanon. I don’t get any maps that tell me this is the area that was treated.
00:24:39:09 – 00:25:01:18
And he’s. No. He’s been in this area, though. No weapons in those areas. I don’t get what the types of weapons that the Lebanese army found. I don’t get an answer to my question. What is happening with those weapons that were found? Because in the past, Lebanese Armed Forces, you know, they took the weapons and they brought it back that evening to rest.
00:25:01:20 – 00:25:38:02
But we’ve seen this happening in the past. We do know that there are commanders in the Lebanese Armed Forces that are collaborating actively with these. By now. We publish their names and they are still there. So I have too many questions and very little answers about the weapons. And I just want to remind everybody. IDF maneuvered boots on the ground only in the areas which are close to the border, like seven kilometers from the border, eight kilometers from the border that the Litani River, this area, that 1701 I’m speaks about is 27km from the border.
00:25:38:04 – 00:25:54:07
So there is an area of, I don’t know, a 20 square square kilometers that nobody treated. And I don’t know what the Lebanese army is doing there because there is no information about it.
00:25:54:09 – 00:26:38:20
Because of all those problems that I just mentioned, Israel is doing a few things. And I want to focus on two, one, the Israeli attacks. We are talking about a ceasefire to be honest, it’s not really a ceasefire. Every day there are attacks, especially airstrikes. But not only against those infrastructures of Hezbollah. If it’s weapon warehouses, training camps, headquarters, manufacturing facilities, rocket storage is more than 560 airstrikes and a little bit of, ground special operations, is happening every day to the people on both sides of the border.
00:26:38:20 – 00:26:59:20
This means that there is no routine. Like, I’ll give you an example from our side of the border. It’s an area that’s supposed to be touristic. And, who wants to be a tourist? Well, you hear the blasts every day. Like I see the the notifications of the municipalities in the Galilee. And I also sometimes hear the bus from my house.
00:26:59:22 – 00:27:29:14
It’s every day. Every day we get the notification from the municipalities, the blast that you hear now, IDF operation in Lebanon against is that every day. The second thing that the Israelis doing is with the issue of regional, this means that IDF forces were supposed to fully regrow Lebanon, up to 60 days from the cease fire.
00:27:29:14 – 00:27:54:03
Of course, much of that it’s past. And we decided to stay. We decided to stay in Five Hills. Now, the green dots on my map represent those five hills, except they are much, much bigger than the size of those five hills. In reality now, very, very small, very small hills. The camps. Oh. It’s not even camps.
00:27:54:03 – 00:28:26:07
These positions, less than the size of a company, in those places. And they are very, very close to the border, and they are on areas which are controlling. And the communities on the Israeli side, you can see in white is basically what you can see when you stand on top. These are two pictures that I took, standing just below those hills inside Israel, inside the community.
00:28:26:09 – 00:28:36:06
The pictures were taken of the two most western, positions of IDF on top of the hill. Can you see my clicker?
00:28:36:08 – 00:29:06:16
I hope you get on top of the hill over here. That’s on the right side of the upper picture. That’s the IDF position and the containers that you can see on the bottom. It’s actually part of a mushroom factory, an Israeli mushroom factory. You can see the wall of the border, in between. And this is, by the way, a UN position, which is the only building that is still standing on this hill, because all other buildings that we are on the scene before the war were used for Hezbollah military activities.
00:29:06:18 – 00:29:33:13
The other picture, you can see the Israeli flag, that’s the wall here. And it’s actually kind of an enclave that goes down the hill, very close, like 500m from the community name to me. And, it is watching the whole area. Why am I showing you the terrain? Because there is a connection between terrain and security.
00:29:33:15 – 00:29:59:05
The terrain in northern Israel, South Lebanon, is not easy to secure. You cannot see for a distance. If you stand on top of the hill, it gives you an advantage. This is highly important. And second is psychology. Eventually, the women that are seeing the Israeli flag on top of the hill, right outside of their windows, a little bit more trust that they can come back and leaving their homes.
00:29:59:07 – 00:30:23:17
And those women and now one of them, remember everything that happened in October 7th to our sisters in the South. We go to sleep with those pictures. And that’s why it’s so important to make sure that there is not only security, there is also a sense of security. We need them both and if we will see his banner flags or onion flags as we used to see until October 6th.
00:30:23:19 – 00:30:32:06
On the other side of the border, there is no security, there is no sense of security.
00:30:32:08 – 00:30:59:22
Today I talked about the American policy. There is really, consistent American impression on the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah. And there was an historic decision of the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah. And the Lebanese army presented a plan to disarm Hezbollah. Except as of said in the plan, no deadline was published and there is no transparency.
00:30:59:24 – 00:31:31:16
The reports, by definition, will remain secrets of the progress of the disarmament of Hezbollah, which is clearly a problem. We didn’t see systematic disarmament of Hezbollah in Lebanon until today by the Lebanese Armed Forces. Yet I was saying throughout my presentation that there is a difficulty of Hezbollah to reconstruct, and I think that the difficulty and I was from a few reasons.
00:31:31:16 – 00:32:04:06
One of them is, is the Lebanese government and the American pressure, no doubt. But another one is Syria, which I already talked about. Another one is what happened in Iran, because Iran is having a lot of difficulties today and it affects Hezbollah. We’ve seen some cutting of the budgets of Hezbollah right after the war against Iran. We’ve seen that Hezbollah stopped the payments to its own people, by its banks, called Hassan, right after, the campaign against Iran.
00:32:04:07 – 00:32:40:02
And there is, difficulty with the cash flow of Hezbollah. And the third reason in Israel, with everything that Israel is doing that I’ve already talked about. So maybe here I should address the small question of what’s the problem? Like, okay, Hezbollah is weaker. The leadership is not as charismatic as it used to be. And, the disarmament is even if the Lebanese army is not completely on board, IDF is doing what it has to do.
00:32:40:04 – 00:33:06:06
What what are we afraid of? Why are we worried? And when I’m saying we I don’t speak only on Israelis in general, but I want to focus on the Israelis that are living up north. And, I think that we are worried that when we we look towards the next years, everything will be forgotten. Hezbollah is still a prominent force in Lebanon.
00:33:06:07 – 00:33:47:16
You cannot ignore that in is keeping its civilian infrastructures, is keeping its banks. They were not closed. Unfortunately, it is keeping its schools. It is keeping its student organizations. It’s, women’s organizations, sports, context. We published around it. You can see all the indoctrination process and and and project of the Islamic revolution, values of the hate to Israel and Western values, of the dependency of its own base within the services that Hezbollah is giving it.
00:33:47:18 – 00:34:23:22
All of that still exist with all the difficulties I’ve mentioned, it still exists. And as long as the Lebanese state doesn’t replace the services that are given by Hezbollah, Hezbollah will be able in the future, while we will all fall asleep to regain the weapons as well. And this is what we are all worried about. Eventually, we want to see a situation of a sovereign state of Lebanon that can provide services to its people, and that has one army, not to.
00:34:23:24 – 00:34:54:11
I also suggest not to listen to me. I’m sorry for saying that, Richard, but I do suggest not to listen to me, but to listen to the Lebanese, to listen to the Lebanese, the entire, objecting Hezbollah inside Lebanon. These are voices of people that are truly risking their lives to make their voices heard. And that is saying very, very clearly the things that is the true danger to Lebanon.
00:34:54:11 – 00:35:20:16
And this time we should not give up on this armament of Hezbollah. And this is what they are saying, not what I’m saying. And I do believe that now it’s the golden opportunity. The bottom line is that I is in a difficult situation. Down different efforts to disarm it. But actually Israel is the main effort, and now it’s the golden opportunity.
00:35:20:19 – 00:35:43:05
And it’s a golden opportunity for Israelis. And it’s a golden opportunity for Lebanese much more than for Israel. And I want to talk about different scenarios that were brought up. And I want to I want to talk about, the process. And I think that it’s not a process of a year or two. It’s a process of a generation.
00:35:43:05 – 00:36:16:00
Once we understand that, because to rebuild services of a country and to rebuild schools and to change what people believe in, and there is a prominent amount of Lebanese, they do believe in the ideology of Hezbollah. This is a change that will happen, during many years in order to get to there, as I’ve said, we should act against the civilian infrastructures, the cash flow and the disarmament working in all three directions.
00:36:16:02 – 00:36:29:09
Peace agreements. It’s very sexy to talk about peace agreements. And many people believe that only Israel will do this, this and that. There will be a peace agreement.
00:36:29:11 – 00:37:00:14
As long as Hezbollah is still a prominent force in Lebanon, I don’t see how we are going to have a peace agreement because Hezbollah is planting the narrative among the Lebanese that Israel is an enemy that wants to take over Lebanon, even though there is no issue. Territorial issue between Israel and Lebanon. The territorial disputes between Israel and Lebanon are completely solvable.
00:37:00:16 – 00:37:27:08
It’s not the issue. It’s not Lebanon is not the core of the Jewish nation. We don’t have any interest in staying there except for security. And, moreover, for my generation, people at my age, between 40 to 50 are the people who remember the Israeli, presence in Lebanon during the 80s and the 90s. We don’t like being there.
00:37:27:14 – 00:37:48:02
We don’t want to be there, and we don’t want to be in those five places. We don’t want to have a security belt, but we do want security for us, it’s a high price to pay. Having those five places which we understand we have to pay today, if in the future we will not have to pay, we will not pay, will be there.
00:37:48:04 – 00:37:54:23
Yes, that’s true. Thank you.
00:37:55:00 – 00:38:28:02
So all those demands of Israel just give up on territorial issues for peace agreements. It cannot work like this. Israel will not give up its security because as I’ve said, all territorial issues are around security for it. Temporary quietness. And we have seen this is the main lessons we have learned from October 7th, that as long as there is no root treatment in those terrorist organizations, this is temporary quietness.
00:38:28:04 – 00:39:01:12
We can have territorial and concessions full through, federal change in the security situation. We will not go back to a situation that Hezbollah is on our friends again. It’s just not going to happen anymore. And I hope that my government now, it doesn’t matter which government will use ahead, will not give up on our security. So we can we can have negotiations.
00:39:06:09 – 00:39:35:18
Cornerstones for having negotiations to start to talk about peace, all the security arrangements like what we see is now probably going to happen with Syria is meetings between Israelis and Lebanese. And the problem is that today in Lebanon, it’s you cannot meet Israelis. Neither in zoom. Now, face to face. If you do that, you are risking to be jailed.
00:39:35:20 – 00:40:06:07
The it’s a strict law that is being enforced by Lebanese authorities in a way that doesn’t enable any meetings, without risking lives of Lebanese. And I think this is not a one step in the right direction is to to stop them, to stop the strict enforcement of these in Lebanon.
00:40:06:09 – 00:40:34:17
Another problematic scenario which people think is very, magic scenario is to have these but, integrated into the Lebanese Armed Forces. This is not a solution. This will create a bigger problem because as you see in the Middle East, in Syria and in Iraq, the same process may happen in Lebanon that Hezbollah will not integrate into the Lebanese Armed Forces.
00:40:34:17 – 00:41:01:02
It will swallow the Lebanese Armed Forces, and it will become the Lebanese Armed Forces in a different name. And this means that if is well, I will join as an integral unit to the Lebanese Armed Forces. You will still have a situation that there are commanders and soldiers in the Lebanese Armed Forces that are not subordinate to the Lebanese government, but subordinate to Iran.
00:41:01:04 – 00:41:34:03
And of course, we don’t want that to happen. To bring Hezbollah into the Lebanese Armed Forces means to take its weapons and to spread the soldiers and commanders completely, and to make sure that those who are not released, but, are still holding the key positions in the Lebanese Armed Forces and are still keeping are still being the majority, which I’m not sure that they in the Lebanese Armed Forces, this is very important to bear in mind, because for me, this is the worst case scenario.
00:41:34:05 – 00:41:40:23
This would mean that Hezbollah took over Lebanon, you know, officially.
00:41:41:00 – 00:42:09:23
The bottom line is that any solution is a solution for the long run, and it’s in integration between investment in education and the civil services in the to to create an alternative to the Muslim Shiites of Lebanon with, rehabilitation without the involvement of but I itself making sure that every penny that is going into Lebanon is not ending up in the constructors in the hands of the constructors that are loyal to Hezbollah.
00:42:10:00 – 00:42:41:02
And I want to say to explain what I’m saying, the advisor for the Lebanese president for the reconstruction of Lebanon is affiliated with Hezbollah. He was the minister of transportation, meaning he was responsible for Hariri airport before the war. And today he is the advisor for the Lebanese president for the reconstruction of Lebanon. We should make sure that the money is not going to the wrong hands.
00:42:41:04 – 00:43:07:03
And of course, stopping the cash flow and the disarmament of weapons. All of that together may bring us to the result that we are all talking about, which is a different prospect. And two Lebanese and two Israelis. And I think I can stop here and open it for a question. Brilliant. So thank you very much indeed for such a comprehensive, briefing.
00:43:07:05 – 00:43:39:20
And if anyone has any questions, please raise a hand, either virtual or real. And we’ll come to you. I’ll ask the first question. Perhaps, you know, you touched on it, but the kind of in a pre October 7th world, Israel was very much concerned about the campaign between the wars and the idea of Hezbollah opening up another front in southern Syria with the takeover, if, of, of of Syria and al-Qaida, obviously, they have a shared enemy with, with Shiite, extremism and the Iranian proxies there.
00:43:39:24 – 00:44:06:18
But how much does that exist and how much is from Hezbollah either giving up or retaining its, it’s desired campaign to open up that second front in southern Syria as well. Now, this is a as we speak, this is happening like, only in the past few weeks, IDF published a few daily cells that were arrested. By IDF forces that are now in Syria.
00:44:06:20 – 00:44:30:04
They’re always cells, not of a or ISIS I’m talking about. They’re always cells of the Muslim Shiite axis. This is still happening, as I’ve mentioned. Also, the smuggling of weapons, the border between Lebanon and Syria is a border of 400km. And in most places there is no fence, it’s just terrain. And again, it’s a complicated terrain, but it’s terrain.
00:44:30:06 – 00:44:57:12
So it’s also, a challenge. I am not saying that everything is. It used to be, of course, that the new government in Syria doesn’t want to see Iran taking over. And now violent clashes between, the Iranian, militias and but, one of them is clean the border in Syria and the Syrian new government, of course, it is more and much more difficult than it used to be.
00:44:57:15 – 00:45:17:21
Syria is no longer part of the Muslim Shiite axis of Iran, but at the same time, it didn’t end completely. And Israel is fighting this in this respect. There is a joint interest between Israel and the new administration in Syria, which I think is the part of their base for the agreement that everybody’s talking about now.
00:45:17:21 – 00:45:39:14
Anyone else have a question? I’ve got one more, if that’s okay, and then anyone else, please feel free to hand up and jump in. Again, you touched on it before about the role of, of Unifil, kind of one of the main, significant changes as I see it from 1701 to this current agreement. One is the kind of thing that lets you mentioned that gives Israel freedom of action.
00:45:39:16 – 00:46:05:24
And now that it’s, it’s Centcom that is the arbitrator of this as a, as opposed to Unifil. But if I’m not mistaken, we still saw Unifil, mandate extended, at least temporarily. But what you see is there is that prospect some kind of will be is it realistic to see them collapsed and if I can I just the second element of the question, the you highlighted the concern of the left, the Lebanese Armed Forces and the potential infiltration of Hezbollah.
00:46:06:04 – 00:46:28:03
But at least according to Israeli official sources, they see the lack as a as a trustworthy body or a body worthy of of, of investment. In fact, for the international community, instead of Unifil. Do you share that assessment? And, where do you see that relationship going to start? From your second question, of course, that eventually you need to create something.
00:46:28:03 – 00:46:48:05
Okay. With that, with all my, criticism on the Lebanese Armed Forces, it is clear that, the state needs an army, and it is clear that, if the West will not support the Lebanese Armed Forces. So maybe Russia and Iran will support it, which this is also a process that I don’t want to see happening.
00:46:48:07 – 00:47:19:10
And that’s why I, I do think that, that the assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces should continue. And Lebanese Armed Forces, yes, we should demanded to replace Unifil because eventually what you need while Unifil is there, it is. It’s a good excuse not to do anything. But at the same time, I think that that what the international community missed also before the war is the question of what exactly to provide to the Lebanese Armed Forces.
00:47:19:12 – 00:47:52:10
And, for what what you return, what do you get in exam? And these are the benchmarks that I’ve mentioned. Like if you build a plan of benchmarks that you say, when the Lebanese Armed Forces will disarm this town, it will get this amount of money. When you say, for instance, we will invest in the salaries of the Lebanese Armed Forces rather than in anti-tank missiles like what France had done, and give them anti-tank missiles, which I don’t really understand against those tanks.
00:47:52:12 – 00:48:16:03
This is something that can create a competition between being drafted to Hezbollah will be interrupted to the Lebanese armed Forces. So I do believe that there are things to be done with regard to Unifil. I can tell you I was the last Israeli advocate in 2014, and I was to say that Unifil should be smaller, but not completely eliminated and not eliminated.
00:48:16:05 – 00:48:46:12
And Council, I was wrong. I was wrong because what was revealed during the war is that Unifil was not ineffective. It was damaging the mission of 1701 because it didn’t report. It didn’t even report the military capabilities, of course, but on south of the Litani River, even though it is clear to everybody that Unifil knew what’s happening, like it was just below their notes.
00:48:46:18 – 00:49:09:16
We published a video and I’m just while I’m speaking, put in here in the chat, a link to a Google drive where you can find the video that I that they showed and many more. And one of them is the training of Hezbollah next to Unifil position, the same one that I’ve shown you on. They own uniforms with flags, with weapons.
00:49:09:18 – 00:49:40:21
This is April 2023. Unifil did nothing about it. So I think the day should be gone. I am sorry that the resolution from, the end of August actually extended the mandate for a year and a half more instead of ending it completely. And I truly hope that the basic principle of the resolution to end demand that will be stronger than that extension of a year and a half, and eventually we will see the end of this mandate.
00:49:40:21 – 00:49:50:07
And yes, the, taking the resources towards the Lebanese Armed Forces instead of doing anything.
00:49:50:09 – 00:50:01:09
Thank you. Okay, one at a time for one last question. If anyone wants, please speak now. Otherwise we will, wrap it up.
00:50:01:11 – 00:50:22:12
Okay, well, I think you’ve answered everyone’s question, so sorry. Thank you very much indeed for such a comprehensive briefing and kind of highlighting the complexities as well is such an important aspect of it. As I began with, I can fully, recommend looking at, at Alma’s, website for more information. Obviously, stay tuned to become for for more briefings as well.
00:50:22:12 – 00:50:24:08
Coming up, thank you.