In this episode, Richard Pater speaks with Dr Rémi Daniel about Turkey’s Middle East policy. Together, they unpack President Erdoğan’s grip on power, what Turkey is trying to achieve in Syria, and how does the Kurdish question affect Ankara’s cross-border posture? The conversation also looks at Turkey’s balancing act towards Iran and what Turkey’s policy on Gaza could mean for Israel.
Dr Rémi Daniel is a specialist on Turkish affairs at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, where he heads the European Research Program. He holds a PhD in International Relations from the Hebrew University and was a Mediterranean Dialogue Fellow at the NATO Defence College in Rome.
Transcript
(This transcript has been automatically generated by AI — please excuse any potential errors.)
00:00:06:24 – 00:00:19:11
Richard Pater
Hello and welcome to the BICOM Briefing and podcast recording. I’m Richard Pater, the Director of BICOM. And today is the 3rd of February. In this briefing we are focusing on Turkey and its role in the region and where it
00:00:19:11 – 00:00:32:11
Richard Pater
intersects with Israeli interests. In fact, we could say that Israeli and Turkish interests are envelopes around Israel from the West in the Mediterranean, where Israel’s allies, Greece and Cyprus have issues over,
00:00:32:14 – 00:00:45:05
Richard Pater
gas exploration and national and natural gas potential pipeline in the north and in Syria in the west with regard to Iran and specifically in the south with regard to Gaza as well.
00:00:45:07 – 00:01:07:02
Richard Pater
So, in today’s conversation, I’m delighted to be joined by Doctor Remi Daniel, who is at the INSS in Tel Aviv specializing in Turkish affairs. And he’s the head of the European Research Program. He holds a PhD in international relations from the Hebrew University and has an affiliation with NATO. As a former fellow of the Mediterranean Dialog program in Rome.
00:01:07:05 – 00:01:10:14
Richard Pater
Remi, thank you very much indeed for joining me.
00:01:10:16 – 00:01:12:20
Rémi Daniel
Thank you very much for the invitation.
00:01:12:22 – 00:01:18:07
Richard Pater
So perhaps before we dive into the foreign policy, I could ask you a just a question or two about,
00:01:18:10 – 00:01:32:14
Richard Pater
internal Turkish politics, the role of IRD again, I would say is a from here in Jerusalem and probably in the West, he is slightly caricatured as this, as this tough guy strongman image. But I wonder if you could, like, lift the veil.
00:01:32:20 – 00:01:42:00
Richard Pater
Just how powerful is he, how popularity and what’s his standing? Crucially, with the army and other secular institutions of the Turkish state.
00:01:42:02 – 00:02:09:05
Rémi Daniel
So, first of all, thank you very much again for the invitation. I think it is very important to have this these kinds of discussions about Turkey, also between Europeans and Israelis, because we are seeing something that is very interesting, although worrying is that for a long time, Israel was trying to convince Europeans about its position regarding Iran and the Iranian regime.
00:02:09:05 – 00:02:51:22
Rémi Daniel
It took a long time for the Europeans to recognize the danger and the threats posed by the Iranian regime. I think the two last two years have, changed things. And also, the less domestic developments in Iran. And as we are seeing more I to II Europeans and Israelis regarding Iran, now, we have a new, field of disagreement or a difference in assessment of the threat of the situation is Turkey, because Israeli, especially since October 7th, seeing more and more Turkey as a threat while Europeans, still trying to look at Turkey as a partner.
00:02:51:24 – 00:03:20:03
Rémi Daniel
And why am I saying that? Because I’ve actually started answering your question. I’m sorry. It takes a little time, but it is difficult to separate between the current domestic situation in Turkey and the general. International environment of the country. I think that what we’ve seen in the last five years is Turkey getting stronger in the world. And thus, the one getting stronger in Turkey.
00:03:20:05 – 00:03:45:06
Rémi Daniel
If you compare the situation, from five years ago, for example, with the five years ago, you see that Turkey was then isolated in the Middle East, perceived as a problematic actor. It has a lot of frictions with the Biden administration and Europeans. There were some embargoes by Europeans because of Turkey’s Middle Eastern policy. The war in Ukraine changed that.
00:03:45:12 – 00:04:29:22
Rémi Daniel
It made Turkey, being seen, as more and more a partner that Europeans could not, give up on. And even the Biden administration changed its position. Then you had October 7th, and then Turkey used it to get closer to Arab countries. And then you had Trump that actually, made very clear that he loved Erdogan without any consideration of the situation within Turkey and European countries, and got so stressed by Trump that they were ready to forgive everything, from Erdogan and hold on so that as a window of opportunity and is using it in its domestic policy, just we have to understand.
00:04:29:22 – 00:04:58:16
Rémi Daniel
But it’s going to be almost one year that the mayor of Istanbul, the, which was supposed to be the main candidate against Erdogan in the next election, sitting in jail since March, March 2025. And it’s no chance. The timing here is very clear. Erdogan understands that these Western partners that were the one reclaiming more democracy in Turkey when it was Biden and when the European Union was stronger.
00:04:58:18 – 00:05:22:16
Rémi Daniel
These Western partners have so many problems or, so different interests that they are not pushing, the one for democracy. So, we have if we are looking at the situation in Turkey, Turkey and on, it’s stronger than ever. Also, because for a long time you used to say about Turkey that elections were free, but not the moment the campaign was controlled by the government.
00:05:22:16 – 00:05:48:12
Rémi Daniel
At the end of the day, the election was, resting so bluntly. The head of the biggest city in is in the country, is signalling something different. Now, you were talking about counter policy. I would say very quickly. There are very few with very limited cover. People that looked at Turkey in the 1990s always looked at the Army as a as a counter power secular counterpart.
00:05:48:14 – 00:06:22:04
Rémi Daniel
You are not there anymore. First, everyone was able to get stronger, against the army, not fearing army intervention. Now he’s even changing the army so that the new generals that have risen in the last decades, are more aligned with its own view. The only thing that exists a little is sometimes the judiciary and one is still unable to get all the judiciary, decisions he wants against the opposition or regarding certain laws.
00:06:22:06 – 00:06:46:20
Rémi Daniel
But it is something very, very marginal in a situation in which everyone is really much in control of everything because of its international, strength. Now, a last point, very shortly, first talked about, the error of, the one, rising, you know, it looks a little he is younger than he looks, but he looks sometimes a little sick.
00:06:46:20 – 00:07:07:03
Rémi Daniel
And some people are thinking about the next one. This maybe it’s his weakness when we have a fight, around, the next, Turkish leader, maybe it will weaken him. But so far, we are in a time we must say, say that very clearly, that, the only stronger than ever.
00:07:07:05 – 00:07:29:09
Richard Pater
If we can now turn to the, I suppose the first theatre, closest to, Turkey, which, to the south, which is, which is Syria. What is Turkey’s endgame and how well-founded you think are Israeli concerns that they kind of with the, with the change of transition of the Syrian government, they’re swapping one Islamic hegemony of Iran for another one in the shape of Turkey.
00:07:29:14 – 00:07:33:09
Richard Pater
Is that an accurate picture?
00:07:33:11 – 00:07:58:00
Rémi Daniel
It is maybe a little exaggerated. First of all, Syria is something very specific in Turkish foreign policy. I mean, you cannot see what’s happening in Syria as a model for what could happen in other countries like Iraq, like Libya and or any other field in which Turkey, in this, efforts in military, because Syria, it’s a cross-border, it’s a plus.
00:07:58:01 – 00:08:21:08
Rémi Daniel
Neighbour frictions with Syria, started at the end of the Ottoman Empire. And immediately, with the establishment of the Turkish Republic, you have the Kurdish issue that Syria is just very much concentrated within itself. A lot, a lot of key issues of Turkish foreign policy. So, you cannot explain it even by saying it’s negative. It’s much more complicated than the Ottoman.
00:08:21:08 – 00:08:47:08
Rémi Daniel
What’s turkey is doing here? And I must also say that the Erdogan’s, policy for a long time was seen as a failure, even right before the end of the Assad regime, for a lot of Turks and, had entered, Syria with not a lot of effects. It had brought refugees in Turkey, terror attacks on Turkey, sold the Turkish army was the U.
00:08:47:09 – 00:09:15:13
Rémi Daniel
That’s a very strong control of the situation. And it created frictions with Russia and Iran. So, So Syria was not a success story for a long time. But then there was this key event that is the end of the Assad regime and the rise of, Jilani, you show depends how much we want to call him, which, by the way, was also in a certain way, surprise or for Turkey.
00:09:15:15 – 00:09:43:13
Rémi Daniel
And you see that Erdogan, has finally the success he was waiting for. There is also leveraging against his domestic, opposition, regarding, Iran and Turkey, I think the two things are important. So, first of all, the interest, the Turkish interests are mostly in the north of Syria, and it means that these are arenas in which Israel is less interested.
00:09:43:19 – 00:10:16:07
Rémi Daniel
So, the idea of sharing maybe influence zones between Turkey and Israel is possible. The second thing it is important to say is that Assad, is a complicated person and that there is real a competition to know who will be the most influential on him. Turkey has good cards because it sported, Sharia from the beginning. Even though there were groups that were closer to Ankara, the show and the leaders also boot on the ground and military material ready to be given.
00:10:16:07 – 00:10:52:02
Rémi Daniel
But for example, he doesn’t have a lot of money to invest there, which makes all the actors Saudi Arabia at the Emirates more relevant. So, the direction that a shuttle will take is, something that is still uncertain, and that could be maybe a little better than a stronger alignment with Turkey. And the last point, and I think if you if you looked and listened to Israeli media immediately after the end of the Assad regime, the fears regarding frictions like direct frictions between Turkey and Israel in Syria was very high.
00:10:52:04 – 00:11:22:02
Rémi Daniel
At the end of the day, there was some friction, but we find we found a modus vivendi, a way to deal with the situation, because Israel is interested in a small part of the south, and Turkey is interested in the north, because Israel’s position towards the actual regime change into something closer to the Turkey, original position, because we have some ways to talk with each other, but didn’t exist with Iran, security apparatus, Azerbaijan, Trump.
00:11:22:04 – 00:11:38:17
Rémi Daniel
We found a way to deal with the situation that and this way is holding has been holding more than a year now. So, I think it would be exaggerated to say Turkey is the new Iran even in Syria, although we will see the frictions between the two countries.
00:11:38:22 – 00:11:52:03
Richard Pater
Israel has long taken for granted, supremacy over the skies of Syria. Is that something that Turkey can live with, or is there an A would you think that’s an also a source of, tokenization?
00:11:52:05 – 00:12:20:07
Rémi Daniel
It is clearly a source of organization. Both actually, but it will also depend on a shadow regime. And then I show us position regarding that, because it’s actually, I do know that there are issues of Syrian sovereignty there. But it is, very clear that Turkey is looking on at all these issues of air control and, until Iran, missiles and things like that closely.
00:12:20:07 – 00:12:44:03
Rémi Daniel
It has also looked at what happened between Israel and Iran with a great deal of fear. What is true is that Turkish technology so far would not be enough to stop, the Israeli Air Force because Turkey is developing, its tools in this field, but it’s still, behind Russia, for example. And Russia was the one helping Assad.
00:12:44:03 – 00:13:06:06
Rémi Daniel
So, on this point of view, it’s a small improvement. But there is a king who is, in Ankara to limit the margin of manoeuvre of Israel in Syrian is some limited capacities. But if things continue as they are now, yes, this will be also one of the issues of frictions between the two countries.
00:13:06:08 – 00:13:23:10
Richard Pater
And with regard to northern Syria. And we’ve seen the latest developments in the Kurdish areas and the, the friction with the with the SDF. What’s the Turkish, stance there? And I suppose more broadly as an, as an Israeli analyst, what’s your assessment of, what’s going on there at the moment?
00:13:23:12 – 00:13:50:06
Rémi Daniel
So, I think in the context of the Syrian, developments, it’s very clear that, so, has said from the beginning that he wants to be the leader of Iran united Syria. He didn’t want Syria to be divided between communities. And he saw an opportunity and, used it just to centralize more the regime around himself.
00:13:50:08 – 00:14:26:14
Rémi Daniel
Regarding the Turkish position, it’s been very important to say that. But for Turkey, the SDF is just the continuation of the PKK of the Turkey occurred. So, terrorist organization operating in Turkey. So that’s based on this vision of the SDF as a terror group. Basically, against Turkey’s security interests that Turkey acted so far in northern Syria, including, entering with ground forces and occupying a large strip in northern Syria.
00:14:26:16 – 00:14:54:19
Rémi Daniel
What is interesting in this specific, context is that Turkey is and the Turkish government has started a little more than a year ago, a peace process with the Kurdish, terrorist groups, a very fragile one. And the issue and it’s one that was started on the balance of power very clearly that Ankara say you can make peace with us or we will continue to fight and defeat you.
00:14:54:21 – 00:15:28:05
Rémi Daniel
And it convinced part of the old leadership of the PKK to go along the situation in Syria could spill over on the situation in Turkey. And I think that we saw that very clearly in the 20 tens, when the Turkish government was already in a peace process with the Kurdish movements, and when there were fights in Kobani, and fears for, for the fate of, Syrian Kurds, the peace process exploded because of the solidarity between the Kurds on both sides of the border.
00:15:28:08 – 00:15:52:04
Rémi Daniel
And you are seeing exactly the same thing with the fears that al-Qaida is entering. The Kurdish region is now even worse, with the support of the Turkish government and maybe the Turkish army. We saw demonstrations, in Turkey against the peace process, against the government and in solidarity with the Syrian Kurds. So, on the one hand, once again, Erdogan is very strong.
00:15:52:04 – 00:16:17:02
Rémi Daniel
There is a window of opportunity that he wants to use everywhere, including against the Kurds or a weakened in Turkey, both in Syria, but maybe by overplaying his hands. It is maybe a joke, but I think, the peace process he started with the Kurds in Turkey. There is a very, very fine tuning here. And the other one is not always very good in fine tune.
00:16:17:04 – 00:16:21:03
Richard Pater
Noted. Thank you. If we can change the focus down to Iran,
00:16:21:06 – 00:16:31:03
Richard Pater
how would you assess current, Iranian Turkish relationship and what’s been the Turkish approach towards Iran’s nuclear program?
00:16:31:05 – 00:16:59:24
Rémi Daniel
So, Turkey, Turkish, Iranian relationships is something always in the middle. It’s never great and it’s never very good. It’s always, moving from rather good to right about with, with points of frictions that are existing. And then other important we could mention Azerbaijan and the Cocos when the Iranian, supported Armenia. And I also very afraid of there’s a major victory because there is a strong Azeri minority in Iran.
00:17:00:04 – 00:17:24:10
Rémi Daniel
Turkey is the main supporter of Azerbaijan. There is also a competition between the two countries, in northern Iraq, towards the Kurdish population, issues of water. There are also and you mentioned we mentioned in the middle of that, there’s also the competition in Syria. But at the end of the day, the end of the Assad regime is the Iranian defeat against, militias supported by Turkey.
00:17:24:10 – 00:17:58:22
Rémi Daniel
So, Turkey does not want Iran to become of, in the region. And that’s why Turkey, was and has always said it was against the nuclear Iran, although it always said also that the solution should be diplomatic in the framework of international organization. But this being said, it is also very clear that after the decade of the Arab Spring, the Turkish strategic vision of the Middle East is that it is a competition between Turkey, Israel and Europe.
00:17:58:24 – 00:18:28:17
Rémi Daniel
And in this global competition, in this regional competition, Turkey is always trying to find a balance between its two, competitors or rivals. And, and I it was very clear that after the 12-year war, when Israel had such an upper hand over Iran, the reaction of Turkey was to balance that, saying out of fear to be alone against the stronger Israel.
00:18:28:19 – 00:18:47:21
Rémi Daniel
Turkey started, going closer to Iran, to arrive to a regional balance that would be more balanced and so better for Turkish interests. And maybe I don’t know if you want to go to the reaction analysis of the Turkish reaction to the last development of Iran in Iran.
00:18:47:21 – 00:18:50:03
Richard Pater
But yes, sure. Go ahead please.
00:18:50:07 – 00:19:20:09
Rémi Daniel
So, so the, after having said that. So the fact that the turkey does not want a stronger, too strong Iran, but not too weak Iran, we have to add the issues that actually if the Turkish leader looks east and southeast, there are two big countries, the Syria, Iraq and Iran, and Iraq and Syria have been very problematic borders for Turkey in the last decades.
00:19:20:11 – 00:19:48:19
Rémi Daniel
With the Kurdish issue with the refugees coming mostly from Syria, with all the need for the Turkish army to be very, active there, and also with the economic, consequences of that. And let’s say that also that the Turkish economy is whether Iran has exactly all these elements and could become a third problematic border right at the time where Syria is getting better.
00:19:48:21 – 00:20:12:02
Rémi Daniel
So, Turks are very and the Turkish leaders are very afraid of a wave of refugees coming from Iran. If the regime falls and there is no control over the country, if the regime in Tehran falls, there is it’s almost sure that the Kurdish minority in Iran will try something and Turkey does not want that. There are also all these, economic considerations.
00:20:12:03 – 00:20:44:21
Rémi Daniel
So, it is very important for us beyond what I just said about the reflection on, regional balances and competition to have the stable Iran to avoid another problematic border with another crisis. After the very difficult decades that that Turkey has. And that’s why you see that actually the current situation of a weakened Iranian regime still holding the country, maybe the best scenario, sees from Ankara saying so, seen from.
00:20:44:21 – 00:20:53:12
Richard Pater
Uncut, right? Yeah, that makes sense. And in a general view, what’s your view of the, of what to expect from the talks? This week?
00:20:53:14 – 00:21:17:13
Rémi Daniel
I think actually that the, the question for more, experts on Iran and US both countries that are very, very difficult to see in the last month. But I think it is another example of the Turkish attempt to be to have a role as a regional player, something that we see in Syria that we see in Gaza.
00:21:17:13 – 00:21:44:24
Rémi Daniel
We’ve seen a lot of places. And the role of in the middle in a lot, a lot of cases, there is a lot of ambiguity in the Turkish position. You could say the same regarding train. You could say the same regarding a lot, a lot of issues that are of importance for European, Europeans and Americans. And in good conditions, Turkey use this ambiguity to present itself as a facilitator, as a mediator.
00:21:45:03 – 00:22:02:22
Rémi Daniel
And that’s what’s going on here. And it’s very interesting, I think. I think whatever the discussion, bring to the situation between Iran and the US, it’s already a diplomatic victory for Turkey that we have these discussions in Istanbul, right.
00:22:02:24 – 00:22:24:16
Richard Pater
And you mentioned just mentioned Gaza. I’d like to come on to that. I mean, we’ve seen, first of all, kind of when the, the formation of the international stabilization Force, the only country that is publicly endorsing sending troops is Turkey. And obviously that’s been vetoed by Israel, because of their affiliation with, with Hamas and the Muslim and the Muslim Brotherhood.
00:22:24:18 – 00:22:30:06
Richard Pater
But what do you think will happen there? Do you think there is a, a Turkish role there?
00:22:30:08 – 00:23:01:13
Rémi Daniel
First, it is important to underline that the once again, it’s a Turkish victory after a period of failure. Turkey from the beginning, from the beginning of the operations, in Gaza has tried to be relevant there. And for a lot it has done a lot of effort. It has sent a lot of aid to Gaza, for example, someone it was the country that was sending the highest, number of humanitarian aids to Gaza.
00:23:01:15 – 00:23:41:08
Rémi Daniel
And it was also it adopted a very extreme anti-Israeli position, hoping that countries would follow the countries that had, like Turkey, trade relations with Israel, who, it would stop them and things like that. And when you looked at the situation six months ago, it had not brought a lot to Turkey. Turkey was rather isolated. Israelis and Americans preferred working with the Egyptians, and Qatar is which is it shows how bad the situation was for Turkey and at the last moment, Trump just wrote Turkey in the ceasefire negotiation.
00:23:41:08 – 00:24:09:02
Rémi Daniel
And by the way, it may have been a very small thing to do to bring, Hamas to free the hostages. So, whatever I’m going to say now about Turkey and the ISF, it really may be the price that we had to pay as Israelis to see the hostages. That sounds like something that maybe, even the Israeli government was completely aware of when it accepted, the situation.
00:24:09:04 – 00:24:41:04
Rémi Daniel
But now, with this help of Turkey and with its role now Turkey finally got what it wanted. Recognized role in the future of Gaza. Now, regarding the presence of Turkish troops, the Israeli veto may be enough to prevent that, but the Turkish presence in Gaza will be in other forms in the support of you see already Turkish flags, although there were no Turks, the Turkish slugs in the works to clean the streets, from the destruction.
00:24:41:06 – 00:25:07:23
Rémi Daniel
You see Turkish aid sent to Gaza. There is, Turkish companies once again Turkish. The Turkish government has not a lot of money to send them, but there’s a lot of companies that could work in the reconstruction of Gaza. And more generally, I think the main problem is political, contrary to most of the countries in the world, including in the Middle East, Turkey does not see Hamas as a terrorist group.
00:25:08:01 – 00:25:43:03
Rémi Daniel
It’s this Hamas as a legitimate Palestinian actor, and it will make a lot of difficulties in the second phase of the ceasefire, which is the disarmament of Hamas. And what we see, although there was a little more optimistic, statement by, Fida and the Turkish Foreign minister a few days ago. But until then, what was also very worrying is that the tone of the Turkish government did not change after the ceasefire, still very strongly anti-Israeli, attacking the legitimacy of Israel.
00:25:43:05 – 00:26:02:21
Rémi Daniel
And we see the Turkey having Turkey so close to Israel on the key strategic issue for Israel with its current positioning that is not changing is a strategic challenge for Israel, even if we don’t see, at the end of the day, Turkish soldiers on Gaza.
00:26:02:23 – 00:26:09:19
Richard Pater
Thank you. And if we just close the circle geographically, can you tell us about an update on
00:26:09:19 – 00:26:26:23
Richard Pater
Egyptian ties and also perhaps how that relates to Israel’s other allies in the East? Med of Greece and Turkey over this proposed, pipeline from Egypt using Israeli natural gas from Egypt into Europe, though, through Greece, Greece waters.
00:26:26:23 – 00:26:27:13
Richard Pater
Is that.
00:26:27:18 – 00:26:32:13
Richard Pater
real? And does that affect, Egyptian, Turkish ties as well?
00:26:32:15 – 00:27:05:07
Rémi Daniel
So, if I take you back again five years ago and when Turkey was isolated, one reason for this situation is that after years of very assertive foreign policy, especially in the East Med Arca, had brought a lot of countries of the region together against its, on policy. And you had the East Mediterranean Gas Forum, for example, that brought together Jordan, Egypt, Israel and the Palestinian Authority, Cyprus, Greece and other European countries together.
00:27:05:13 – 00:27:34:03
Rémi Daniel
When the idea was really to contain Turkish expansionist or assertive policy. And, Burma, quote in a certain way, were also an alignment that had anti Turkish for dimension for part of its, of its members. The October 7th and the war in Gaza, changed a lot of things. And also, Turkey used it.
00:27:34:05 – 00:28:06:18
Rémi Daniel
It had started what he saw, it was isolated. It had started a series of normalization with Arab countries and with Israel. By the way, just want to remind you the photo of a seventh. We had a meeting between the London and New York and the visit of the Israeli, president. So, Turkey was then, you know, more conciliatory and, policy that had brought some fruit and in juice, actually the war in Gaza to tell Arab countries, you see, the bad guy here is not me, it’s Israel.
00:28:06:18 – 00:28:37:21
Rémi Daniel
Look, what is what’s going on in Gaza. And it’s true, we see the continuation of good relations between, Turkey and, of its Arab neighbours, even though the, the mistrust continue. And, you see, there was a talk about, triangular agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan. And the Saudis said, no, the Egyptians organized some, some, exercises, military exercises Turkey.
00:28:37:23 – 00:29:08:15
Rémi Daniel
But don’t want to go too far. So, we are still saying the better relations between Turkey and its Arab neighbours. But the situation is not perfect yet. And going back to the Ismail, the strengthening of Turkey that we saw last year because of what the reason I said in my first answer created worries in Israel. It’s created worries also in Greece and Cyprus, and they are the first one, I would say that came back to Israel.
00:29:08:21 – 00:29:36:18
Rémi Daniel
It’s very interesting as Turkey was, you know, on the side and then was talking only about Gaza. The Greek and Cypriot leaders had forgotten. Maybe that was the number of the of their Israeli counterpart in Jerusalem when Turkey came back in the region following the situation in Syria, following the situation, in the global arena, I think the situation in Gaza as a strong regional power, the balancing effect came back.
00:29:36:20 – 00:30:02:20
Rémi Daniel
Right now, it’s only regarding, going well with Cyprus and Greece. It’s based on the history. I would say that maybe Egypt, would be the next. And once again, Egyptians, they have also to take into account the situation in Gaza, which makes so far more difficult for them to be very openly in good relations with Israel.
00:30:02:22 – 00:30:27:04
Richard Pater
And one final area that we in, kind of in a postwar scenario, I wanted to just explore for a moment the bilateral ties between Israel and Turkey. And if they, I mean, in the past, you’ve alluded to it, you know, there were very strong commercial ties in a period, the gone era. It was kind of highlighted that, you know, a secular Jewish state in a secular Muslim state could even be close allies, even security partners.
00:30:27:08 – 00:30:38:19
Richard Pater
I understand that’s not realistic in the current environment. But can commercial ties, trade ties, be rebuilt at all? And kind of a rapprochement?
00:30:38:21 – 00:31:04:01
Rémi Daniel
But what is very interesting is that in his statement about the future of the Israeli Turkish relations that I mentioned earlier, be done, the Turkish foreign minister related only to that. The treaty said, maybe we could go back to trade with Israel, when there is a real ceasefire in Gaza and when, humanitarian aid can and to without problem.
00:31:04:03 – 00:31:39:16
Rémi Daniel
The definition that the Turks have a real ceasefire in Gaza may include things that Israel Israelis cannot agree with. So, so it’s but it’s interesting to see that the trade, as was the case when there were other political crises between the two countries, the trade remains maybe the last connecting and not between the two countries. The problem is and it’s and one final, one final thing about that and you can understand also because of the situation of the Turkish economy, the Turkish economy is rather it rather weakened.
00:31:39:18 – 00:32:18:11
Rémi Daniel
The Turkish economy needs dollars. And because of the balance of the trade between Israel and Turkey, actually Israel was giving a bringing to the Turkish economy a lot of the dollars needed. So, there are there are groups in Turkey that may be influential that turn that, in favour of going back to trade. But first of all, I think that the decision that was very, very immediate of the Turkish government to decide on an embargo with Israel made some Israeli tradesmen rethink their relations with Turkey.
00:32:18:11 – 00:32:54:13
Rémi Daniel
If Turkey is not a market that you can rely on, because the government can decide from one day to the other on an embargo, maybe it’s better to go to Egypt to go to other countries. And the second thing is that, you know, economists immediately after the decision, of Ankara to, the embargo decision, Israeli economists were very, very worried about the impact it would have on the inflation in Israel, on the prices of maybe some goods that would be difficult to be found.
00:32:54:15 – 00:33:08:18
Rémi Daniel
And the Israeli treatment found alternatives are the, buying from Turkey through third was all going to other, providers. So, I think the incentive also in the economic
00:33:08:23 – 00:33:24:23
Rémi Daniel
go to trade is maybe lower than before. So, trade is maybe the last, field in which we can be optimistic, even there, after the two very harsh years that we had, we shouldn’t be too optimistic.
00:33:25:00 – 00:33:33:09
Richard Pater
I understand. Well, thank you so much for that. I’m going to stop the recording now. But just to say thank you very much for sharing that analysis with us, it was terrific.
00:33:33:11 – 00:33:34:11
Rémi Daniel
Thank you. Thank you all.