In this episode, recorded during a media briefing, Richard Pater speaks with Bridget Toomey about the Iraqi militia ecosystem under the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) umbrella and the Houthis of Yemen. Toomey assesses their military capabilities and the implications for Israel, US forces, and regional stability. The discussion also examines what Iraqi militias, and the Houthis might do in the event of a direct confrontation with Iran.
Bridget Toomey is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, focusing on Iranian proxies, specifically Iraqi militias and the Houthis. Prior to joining FDD, she was a Fulbright Fellow in Israel where she completed an M.A. in security and diplomacy at Tel Aviv University.
Transcript
(This transcript has been automatically generated by AI — please excuse any potential errors.)
00:00:07:05 – 00:00:42:16
Richard Pater
Hello and welcome to the BICOM briefing and podcast recording. I’m Richard Pater, the director of BICOM, and today is the 26th of February. Today’s briefing is a continuation of our series of briefings focused on different countries in the region and their relationship and approach to Israel. Today, our focus is on the militias of Iraq and Yemen. Our guest is Bridget Toomey, a research analyst at the PhD, the Foundation of Defense of Democracies, based in Washington, DC, where she focuses on the Iranian proxies, specifically the Iraq militias and the Houthis in Yemen.
00:00:42:18 – 00:00:53:20
Richard Pater
Bridget, thank you very much indeed for joining us. Perhaps we can start and you can give us an overview of the current strength and military capacity of both the militias in Iraq and the Hutus in Yemen.
00:00:53:22 – 00:01:18:19
Bridget Toomey
The militias in Iraq really structured more as a network. They operate under the umbrella of what’s called the Popular Mobilization Forces or hostile Chavi, which is a government, an official Iraqi security institution, traces its roots to the fight against ISIS when the Iraqi government wanted to, really legitimize these forces that were eager to counter ISIS.
00:01:18:21 – 00:01:45:15
Bridget Toomey
Now, these militias, the largest militias in Shelby are Iran backed proxies, six of which are U.S. designated terrorist organizations. However, there are some smaller groups that are not they’re not Shia or they’re not as closely aligned with Iran. The estimates are that they claimed 238,000 fighters. It’s much more likely that the Iran backed militias are in the range of 80 to 100,000.
00:01:45:17 – 00:02:08:00
Bridget Toomey
Nobody’s certain. But those are kind of the real the realistic estimates that I’ve heard. And these forces field a range of weapons and capabilities. They have Iranian supplied drones and missiles. Their drones are kind of what they’re most well-known for using in addition to, of course, they’re behind IED attacks that killed hundreds of American service members in Iraq.
00:02:08:00 – 00:02:39:19
Bridget Toomey
But of concern to Israel and the United States now would be their drone capabilities. They’re known for targeting both Israel and US forces in the region. Over the first year plus of the war in Gaza, they targeted US forces in the region. Ultimately, they stood down after killing service members in Jordan. The US government struck them and made it very clear to the Iraqi government that there would be more serious consequences if they continued to harass US forces.
00:02:39:21 – 00:03:05:04
Bridget Toomey
But they continue to attack Israel for a long time after. And then during the 12 Day War, they were, noticeably absent from the fight, when Iran was being struck by Israel and then by the United States. However, they likely conducted a handful of, well, we’re unclaimed drone attacks in Iraq and in the Kurdistan region.
00:03:05:06 – 00:03:27:00
Bridget Toomey
They view the Kurdistan region, my suspicion towards closer ties to Washington, and they will attack economic infrastructure or other sites in that area when they, you know, when they when they want to, when they feel that there is a threat or that the KRG might be enabling activity that is contrary to their interests and Iranian interests.
00:03:27:02 – 00:03:59:01
Bridget Toomey
So, the, the main threat posed by these militias is really their drones and their missile capabilities. The US was previously concerned, of course, about, forces in Iraq and their safety. We’ve now withdrawn all forces to the KRG area and then Syria. These could still be targeted by Iraqi militias. And we also have the embassy in Baghdad, which they, they would be eager to harass or attack, as they have in the past.
00:03:59:03 – 00:04:23:02
Bridget Toomey
The some of the militias at the moment have been leading a vocal campaign in support of Iran, as well as a US campaign to sign up for suicide operations. This is, I think, unlikely to manifest in a suicide attack campaign, but they’ve been, you know, riling up some of their members and their followers for weeks now.
00:04:23:04 – 00:04:55:18
Bridget Toomey
So, it wouldn’t be surprising if this manifests in, a couple of attacks or some more one-off activity, but their style would likely be these, these drone attacks at US interests in the region and returning to fighting against Israel. On the Houthi front, the Houthis maintain the capabilities that they had, you know, when they were targeting Israel and commercial shipping before, it’s the number of weapons in their arsenal is uncertain.
00:04:55:20 – 00:05:25:04
Bridget Toomey
However, they they’ve gone to great lengths to ensure that their procurement systems are still in place, both smuggling from Iran as well as, they’re developing their domestic production networks. So that looks like importing commercially available equipment, particularly for drones. It’s a little they don’t seem to have the capacity to domestically manufacture missiles at the moment. They’re still reliant on Iran for that, for key components.
00:05:25:06 – 00:05:51:11
Bridget Toomey
But for drone systems, they can commercially procure and import, the necessary parts and then assemble in, in Yemen. And that makes it much more difficult to stop as the Yemeni border Patrol, whomever is at whichever smuggling station has a hard time identifying dual use components and stopping the import of lots of, smaller commercial deliveries.
00:05:51:13 – 00:06:16:03
Bridget Toomey
So, the Houthis continue to have an arsenal of anti-ship systems, as well as ballistic missiles and drones capable of reaching Israel, which also means they’re capable of reaching many US assets in the region, particularly in the Gulf area. And those would be, you know, weapons they would be likely eager to use in the event of any conflict with Iran.
00:06:16:05 – 00:06:41:13
Richard Pater
So that was that was going to be my follow up questioning. What if we can just game it out in the scenario? How much do you think, in both countries are the forces likely to come to the aid of Iran in the event of an attack? And what would that look like in terms of either attacking Israeli or Israel or US assets or coming to help defend the, defend the Iranian regime in the case of the Iraqi militias.
00:06:41:15 – 00:07:04:05
Bridget Toomey
So, in the Iraqi militias particularly, I think this is the more interesting situation, because the backing up a little bit, Iran’s influence in Iraq is not purely the militias. They’ve infiltrated the government and the economy to the point that they effectively have almost a shadow state. They’re there. And Iran is extremely reliant on Iraq for economic purposes.
00:07:04:05 – 00:07:27:24
Bridget Toomey
They’re crucial in there, oil smuggling. They exploit the cash-based economy in Iraq to get access to dollars. So, the Iraqi militias have, a lot playing into their calculus. Now because it’s also a militia network. You have a range of how eager some are to fight and how much. Some have become kind of ingrained in the political system.
00:07:28:01 – 00:07:58:24
Bridget Toomey
And I don’t view ingraining them in the political system as moderating them. It just provides them multiple areas to, to aid Iran. And that they factor that in when making decisions. That being said, I think Iran, you know, is concerned that it may face a really existential threat, not just a temporary medical military threat. And in the event of an existential threat, you’ll see the many Iraqi militias come swiftly to their aid.
00:07:59:01 – 00:08:21:14
Bridget Toomey
And I think that would look like attacking US forces in the region. They’ve long employed their militias to harass the US presence with the hopes that it, you know, incurs a cost and force it to pull back. We did see during the recent protests, the Iranian regime likely imported a couple thousand Iraqi fighters to put down the protest.
00:08:21:14 – 00:08:53:05
Bridget Toomey
There’s been reports for years of their militias being in Iran. Whenever the people rise up, and these fighters, some go to school there, they’re getting training in Iran. So, it’s never been clear, you know, are these Iraqis, Hezbollah fighters, etc. in Iran? And that’s why they’re participating in this, or were they imported? But reports from the past, a month to months at this point say that they were seeing, you know, at border points going into the country.
00:08:53:07 – 00:09:17:06
Bridget Toomey
So, they’re definitely using these Iraqi militias for their easy access to Iran and their ability to support Iranian forces. And I think they would, you know, look to, to capitalize on that show that they face an existential threat from the US and from Israel. The Houthis, on the other hand, are I, I describe them as one of the most trigger happy of Iran groups.
00:09:17:08 – 00:09:54:04
Bridget Toomey
I think they would be very likely to jump into the fighting. And I think they would, they might do so by closing the Red Sea again. The they realize how much kind of power and influence that capability gives them, and they’re eager to use it for their own purposes or at the behest of Iran. I think they would also like to try, using their some of their anti-ship capabilities, which they’ve been really practicing and, refining over the past almost two and a half years now.
00:09:54:06 – 00:10:06:19
Bridget Toomey
Of course, most U.S assets are out of their reach, but, to any extent possible, they would be looking to, to support Iran in that way as well.
00:10:06:21 – 00:10:32:21
Richard Pater
So, if we can just focus back on the militias of Iraq, could you give us an idea of the geographical spread? I mean, is there relevance in terms of the border between Iran and Iraq, that they would play a role? And perhaps you could also say a little bit more about their relationship between the, the Iraqi government and the role of the Iraqi government and the and the military there, and their relationship with the militias.
00:10:32:23 – 00:11:02:03
Bridget Toomey
So geographically, they, you know, they’re more concentrated in some of the Shia portions of Iraq. But they do, they use the border with Iran as, smuggling territory. You know, however, they’re certainly they’re eager to use it. They also have a presence on the Syrian border in their capacity with the, the PMF, and in other areas.
00:11:02:03 – 00:11:33:05
Bridget Toomey
And, you know, they, they conduct, counterterrorism missions. They do some of this what would be state military activity in their PMF roles? And that’s, you know, one point of concern is that that has, caused a lot of sectarian issues in their behaviour towards Sunni components of the Iraqi society and others. But there are, so I don’t PMF that is a big part of their role with the government, but not exclusively at the moment.
00:11:33:05 – 00:12:04:14
Bridget Toomey
Iraq is forming the next government. So, they there there’s specific, dynamics they’ll play is a little bit in flux. But they have, you know, many of the major militias have parallel political parties. And in this past election, the November 11th election, the Shia political parties performed extremely well. And the third strongest performing political party was actually the wing of one of these designated terrorist organizations.
00:12:04:14 – 00:12:33:09
Bridget Toomey
So not only do the Shia parties do well, the militia parties did well. And also, and given their strong performance, these Shia political parties form a coalition. It’s called the Coordination Framework. It led the last government. It’s expressed its intent to lead this next government. And at the moment they are figuring out their prime ministerial candidate, which will really be indicative of how the government is going to approach and work with these militias within.
00:12:33:14 – 00:12:56:06
Bridget Toomey
I described as within a range of, you know, least bad options because this whole government is going to be led by this coordination framework, it looks like. And within that, you’re never going to find someone who is, you know, eager to go after the militias or Iranian influence. But there are kind of degrees to which someone will be willing to partner with the United States.
00:12:56:07 – 00:13:26:20
Bridget Toomey
With the West in, you know, and some on the margins to some extent. At the moment, they have nominated the former prime minister, Nouri al Maliki, to be or selected him to be their candidate. The United States has rejected his, his candidacy and given the Iraqi leadership, I believe, until tomorrow, to withdraw it. They have not been able to reach a consensus about what to do in this.
00:13:26:22 – 00:14:13:19
Bridget Toomey
So, he is still their candidate. But things are not really moving forward. They’re at a bit of a standstill. But this government formation really does involve the militias. You’ll see militia leaders, you know, sitting at the table with a coordination framework, leadership meetings, and it enabled them to their previous, influence and likely on going into it has enabled the militias and their partners to really put people in just about every government department at different areas, for all sorts of purposes, ranging from positions in oil related ministries and departments that enable them to profit, to exploit the oil sector to some have, you know, work their way into the Ministry of
00:14:13:19 – 00:14:43:19
Bridget Toomey
Education. Some militias have presence in the Ministry of Agriculture, which enables them to ensure that any land decisions are favourable to them. And so, the political influence of these militias, it’s you really can’t overstate how much this, affects the economic prospects and the power of these militias. It’s also given them cover for the past.
00:14:43:21 – 00:14:56:08
Bridget Toomey
You know, how many years, political cover to kind of make sure that the pressure Washington might put on militias is a little bit mitigated by, by a favourable leadership in Baghdad.
00:14:56:10 – 00:15:15:08
Richard Pater
Thanks. You mentioned, just in passing Syria before, I wondered how much of a role the Iraqi militias are playing in the within the within the context of the, the ungoverned areas in Syria and how the change of regime in Syria is affecting their relationship with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
00:15:15:10 – 00:15:47:01
Bridget Toomey
So, the, the, the change of the regime in Syria, was thought to maybe close or, you know, hope that it would close some of these smuggling routes to Hezbollah. It’s pretty apparent that they’re still on and they’re still able to move, but with, you know, a little bit less freedom. It also forced some of those Iraqi militias that had a stronger or a larger presence in Syria, some of these militias in the 20 tens, in the Syrian civil war were really created.
00:15:47:06 – 00:16:16:18
Bridget Toomey
Some of the smaller ones were created to fight in Syria. They branched off from some of the more established Iraqi ones for the purpose of sending partners to the Assad regime in Syria. Those are large, you know, have been forced to come back to Iraq and the militias, the PMF has taken a big role in, border security and a range of issues having to do with the concerns about Syria and, any instability going over from there.
00:16:16:24 – 00:16:53:19
Bridget Toomey
And the Iran backed militias within the PMF were at the forefront of that, which has, you know, raised concerns on both sides as they, the Iraqis understandably view have some concerns about, instability in Syria, ISIS, a range of issues. At the same time, the Sunni community in Iraq has concerns that the Shiites, the Iraqi militias, would, use this as an excuse, as the sectarian issues in Iraq are still, still ongoing, that tension is still there.
00:16:54:00 – 00:16:58:12
Bridget Toomey
And it can contribute to, unrest or instability.
00:16:58:14 – 00:17:01:18
Richard Pater
And specifically, about their relationship with Hezbollah.
00:17:01:20 – 00:17:27:07
Bridget Toomey
They still have an ongoing relationship with Hezbollah. These militias, all of Iran’s network really manages to continue working together. The who, these Hezbollah and the Iraqi militias are all and still, you know, cooperating. So, learning lessons from each other, the who these are actually back in Iraq, teaching some of what they’ve learned and there, they’re supporting Hezbollah as well.
00:17:27:13 – 00:17:52:21
Bridget Toomey
The Iraqi militias sons are also very important for on as a rebuilds its network since these militias, not only do they have this economic access through the government, but they also receive salaries and payments through the PMF from the Iraqi government. So, they, you know, have their own sources of income that can then be redistributed and have historically been redistributed throughout Iran’s network.
00:17:52:23 – 00:18:14:10
Richard Pater
And what can you what more can you tell us about the smuggling routes or about what the kind of the, the mechanism of what the, of what the smuggling, pertains to at the moment and how much of the of talk about Iraq into, into Syria, how much of the regime of the Syrian regime are able to put up border controls and checkpoints and, and counter that efforts?
00:18:14:12 – 00:18:44:06
Bridget Toomey
The Iraqi smugglers, what they’ve kind of said is they don’t have problems with this. They’ve been able to get what they want to get through. I do think the regime in Syria would like to the government would like to see that closed and ended. But at the moment it does not seem like they have the capacity to stop these Iraqi rocky smuggling networks, Iranian smuggling networks, across their territory.
00:18:44:11 – 00:19:07:21
Richard Pater
And just if we can turn our attention back to the hooch here in Yemen, maybe you can give us an update as well. On what? The current, into fighting of the Civil War in, in, in Yemen looks like, between that, between the Hutus and the and the government and the row that we’ve, we’ve heard in the media recently, relatively recently of the, the country roles that both the, the Saudis and the Emirati is applying there.
00:19:07:23 – 00:19:43:17
Bridget Toomey
I’ll start the, the political section first. The Yemeni government is kind of getting its feet under it a little bit at the moment. As you mentioned, the Saudi Emirati rules have completely shifted. The Emirati are largely out of out of Yemen at the moment. In December or early January, their partners, the local the southern secessionists advanced all the way to the eastern border with Oman, seeking to kind of reclaim what used to be South Yemen, and take steps towards.
00:19:43:17 – 00:20:09:18
Bridget Toomey
They did take steps towards seceding. Ultimately, that was a grave miscalculation on their part, I think partly due to a mix of factors, but I don’t think they anticipated the extent to which Saudi Arabia was interested in Yemen and was interested in maintaining, its spheres of influence in Yemen. So ultimately, Saudi Arabia pushed those forces back.
00:20:09:23 – 00:20:35:17
Bridget Toomey
And I really out, that political entity that was driving that has been dissolved by Saudi Arabia. It still has some, you know, remnants that are working that are ongoing. And the southern secessionist sentiment is certainly still there. But in this kind of realignment of, of influence in, in Yemen, the Saudis have really taken over the entire country.
00:20:35:17 – 00:21:02:05
Bridget Toomey
They’re now working with the government, they’re working with the southern secessionists, and there, they’ve established a new a new government. It’s, the Yemen has the Presidential Leadership Council, which is an executive body, an eight-man executive body. And then under that, you also have the prime minister and the cabinet that he runs. So, they created a new cabinet, new prime minister and new military structures.
00:21:02:05 – 00:21:32:03
Bridget Toomey
They’re hoping to integrate the military into a unified chain of command. They’re in the very early stages of looking at that. They I’m, you know, at this point, they haven’t really even taken concrete steps to doing it and not, say, certain hurdles along the way as many of these, particularly along the North-South divide, some forces will not want to be subordinate to, commander certain commanders, so they’ll face challenges in that.
00:21:32:05 – 00:22:00:03
Bridget Toomey
But they’re hoping to bring a more unified structure to the Yemeni military, which would be beneficial in the fight against the Who. These, in recent weeks, the Houthis were quieter, particularly as there is, you know, unfolding events in the South. I think they were, you know, looking to see what would happen. And they’ve also been focused on rearming and ensuring control within their territory.
00:22:00:05 – 00:22:34:17
Bridget Toomey
They were extremely shaken by the successful Israeli airstrikes, particularly ones that killed their minister of defence, government officials. They were concerned by how Israel managed to get that intelligence and execute such targeted strike. So, they’ve been engaged in a serious domestic intelligence crackdown, but a policing crackdown, intelligence efforts to make sure, that they didn’t have any, any leaks, but they were extremely paranoid in how they go about this.
00:22:34:17 – 00:22:58:22
Bridget Toomey
So, so a lot of it, you know, of course, was innocent people that they were cracking down on. It looks right now like they are preparing, for some sort of, activity that some Yemeni reporters have been noting, medical preparations, preparations for large numbers, perhaps large number of casualties. The medical centres have been put on alert.
00:22:58:24 – 00:23:28:10
Bridget Toomey
It looks like preparations have been made for, shelters. According to some of the local sources. And then they’ve been moving troops around to different, internal fronts. So, the medical preparations could be for internal conflict, or it could be for, you know, anticipating American or Israeli action. These would be Iran and the who these, the internal movements are based on the Civil War.
00:23:28:10 – 00:23:53:07
Bridget Toomey
They’re fighting against the Yemeni government. They’re moving mostly to two areas that they’ve been they’ve been focused on in the past. They control most of the Red Sea coast, but they’d like to continue moving down the Red Sea coast, take more of it. And then the Red Sea coast also has, pretty strong coalition of anti-EU forces that they’ve been concerned about in the past.
00:23:53:09 – 00:24:20:15
Bridget Toomey
These forces have also had some, some, very effective counter smuggling missions in the past year. So not only are they concerned about having these forces on their border, but they’d also like to get rid of any impediments to their smuggling routes. The second area that there have been reported clashes recently is, a central government called Marib, which has extensive oil reserves.
00:24:20:17 – 00:24:44:14
Bridget Toomey
Could be a wealth of resources if that’s able to be extracted and sold. And who these at the moment are a little bit cash strapped. So, they have been eager for years to move into that territory and be able to take those resources. Which is kind of why those are two of the main, main next places for, for them to look to expand.
00:24:44:16 – 00:25:14:02
Bridget Toomey
And reports that they’re increasing clashes and troop movements are certainly interesting. And kind of a we’ll wait and see whether that manifests into, into a larger offensive or if this is kind of some of their they’re constantly skirmishes, clashes at the, the front lines and there. So, it’s, it’s uncertain if that will manifest into, into an expansion campaign, particularly at a time when they might face, airstrikes.
00:25:14:04 – 00:25:35:17
Richard Pater
And how much of both the, the Iraqi militias and the Hutus kind of solely reliant, I suppose, economically, primarily on Iran, that, the I mean, I don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, but a, a, a weakened Iranian regime. How much does that pose an existential threat to the who’s and the, and the Iraqi militias, if they would just cut off the supplies.
00:25:35:19 – 00:26:05:07
Bridget Toomey
You know, I don’t think that it would pose necessarily an existential threat to either. Unfortunately, it would certainly transform how, in particular, the Iraqi militias have to behave. And these groups have ingrained themselves so deeply in the Iraqi state and economy that they can provide some of their own resources. However, Baghdad would come under extreme pressure to do something about the militia issue.
00:26:05:09 – 00:26:36:09
Bridget Toomey
But I do think you have a lot of kind of long-time militia members, leaders there that are able to protect themselves within the Iraqi system. So, they would no longer pose the kind of threat that they do now. And their weapons pipeline in Iraq would dry up a little bit, but they still have access to Iraqi systems, and they still have access to money through the Iraqi economy, and their exploitation there.
00:26:36:09 – 00:27:01:05
Bridget Toomey
So, I think it would take it would still take concerted, pressure from the United States and from the West on the Iraqi government to really do something about this issue. It would be easier to accomplish that without Iran putting pressure on the UN, Baghdad, in the opposite direction. But it would not be, they wouldn’t just wither on the vine without Iran.
00:27:01:07 – 00:27:29:10
Bridget Toomey
The Houthis are another case. This is, you know, an indigenous Yemeni movement that started when it started. It really didn’t have much Iranian support. The they’ve always had a relationship with Iran, the who, the leadership. Even before this was a strong movement. The family was going to Iran for religious instruction and others. So, I don’t want to say they were ever completely divorced from Iran.
00:27:29:10 – 00:27:53:24
Bridget Toomey
But when the political and the military, their guerrilla warfare in the early 2000s against the Yemeni government, they were not, you know, doing that at Iranian direction or getting Iranian support. The first reports of military support from the Iranians came in 2009. And then it’s believed that military support really started to flow to the Who. These in 2015, and they’ve been fighting since 2004.
00:27:54:01 – 00:28:20:09
Bridget Toomey
They formed as a political movement long before that. So, they have kind of a bit of a life of their own in Yemen, and they have their own now. They have, their own government that is semi functioning. And they’ve been working very hard to ensure that they have their own access to weapons. The, the Houthis arsenal and capabilities would certainly decrease.
00:28:20:09 – 00:28:53:19
Bridget Toomey
You would see their missiles in particular. They would, you know, be on a finite supply of the Iranian without continuous rolling smuggling. But they’ve been trained by Iranians to, to manufacture as well. So, they would be eager, particularly in the drone space, to keep their, their supply of, to keep the, you know, components incoming. And they would certainly have what they need to continue fighting in Yemen.
00:28:53:21 – 00:29:24:19
Bridget Toomey
Yemen has is notorious for its small arms market and the ability to get weapons there. They’re expanding into Africa to get, procurement networks and they smuggle out and smuggle in through Africa. So, the Houthis would certainly not disappear simply because the Iranians are no longer supporting them. Again, it would take, external support, I think, to Yemenis to drive them out.
00:29:24:21 – 00:29:43:07
Bridget Toomey
At the moment, I’m not sure that there’s much appetite on many sides to fight the who these from the Americans or from the Saudis. And it would really take strong backing from these partners to, to support the Yemenis in an effort to drive the these out.
00:29:43:09 – 00:30:05:13
Richard Pater
And I’m just curious if perhaps you could shed some light. At the end of last year, we saw the release of, Elizabeth Surkov, the Israeli researcher that was held for two and a half years by the, by the militias in, in Iraq. I don’t know if you know any more you can share with us about the background to her release and, and, and the context.
00:30:05:15 – 00:30:27:03
Bridget Toomey
Well, I’m not aware of anything outside from what kind of in the public, what she said and what others have said. But it does seem like there was, extensive pressure brought to bear, not just on the militias, but on the political level in Baghdad. That made it very clear that this needed to happen, or else they would start to face consequences.
00:30:27:03 – 00:31:01:01
Bridget Toomey
And this is really how the United States has managed to kind of accomplish anything regarding the militias, not anything. Sometimes they’re responsive to military power. But one of the most effective ways to get the Iran’s partners in Iraq to stop bad behaviour or to influence them is through this political level in Baghdad, who is concerned, in part because they are aware that many of the political leaders have likely engaged in designated or sanction activity, and they don’t want Washington looking too closely at that.
00:31:01:03 – 00:31:39:08
Bridget Toomey
They’re concerned about access to funds. They’re concerned about us ongoing military, economic, humanitarian support. Their oil reserves are in the New York Federal Reserve Bank. They don’t want not accounts for their oil funds account for 90% of their government budget. So, the United States has a lot of levers it can pull in Baghdad. And when it expresses a willingness to do that, generally the politicians in Iraq listen to an extent, it doesn’t mean that Washington always uses this influence or can always get what it wants.
00:31:39:08 – 00:31:51:00
Bridget Toomey
But it’s shown in the past, and I think this is one case where when Washington says that something really needs to happen or there will be consequences is the Baghdad is forced to listen.
00:31:51:05 – 00:32:08:04
Richard Pater
Thank you. And just one final question from me. Just based on based on your location in Washington and your access, hopefully soon to some tea leaves, I wondered if you could kind of give your best assessment of what you think is coming next with regard to, to us and a potential strike on it on Iran.
00:32:08:07 – 00:32:36:09
Bridget Toomey
I think it’s a little hard to make a definitive assessment right now. My, as far as I’m aware, I think the negotiations are still ongoing at the moment or they may still be on a they went on a break. I’m not quite certain if they’ve resumed what we’ve been on this call. But it doesn’t look like the Iranians are going to put together a deal that is, but amenable to, to President Trump.
00:32:36:09 – 00:32:53:21
Bridget Toomey
And I think in that case that he’s, he’s prepared to take military action. I think they would likely need to, to pull something together that is substantially different from what we’ve seen, or what we’ve seen indicated just to avoid a strike.
00:32:54:02 – 00:32:55:21
Richard Pater
That was brilliant. So, thank you very much.