In this episode, recorded during a media briefing, Richard Pater speaks with Dr. Eran Lerman, who assesses the achievements so far of the War with Iran, while examining the unresolved challenges around Iran’s nuclear programme and the strategic contest over control of the Strait of Hormuz. He also explores the role of the United States as an operational partner, the risks of escalation involving Hezbollah and the Gulf states, and the internal dynamics within Iran.
Dr. Col. (res.) Eran Lerman was Deputy Director for foreign policy and international affairs at Israel’s National Security Council. Prior to this he held senior posts in IDF Military Intelligence for over 20 years. He currently teaches Middle East studies at Shalem College in Jerusalem, and in post-graduate programmes at Tel Aviv University and the National Defence College.
Transcript
(This transcript has been automatically generated by AI — please excuse any potential errors.)
00:00:06:24 – 00:00:29:13
Richard Pater
Hello and welcome to this Bike on briefing and podcast recording. I’m Richard Pater, the director of BICOM and today is Wednesday the 18th of March. I’m delighted to introduce our guest today, Doctor Eran Lerman. Doctor Eran is an IDF colonel in reserves. He was Deputy Director of Israel’s National Security Council, as well as serving for over 20 years in IDF military intelligence.
00:00:29:18 – 00:00:51:15
Richard Pater
He currently teaches Middle East studies at Shoreline College and Jerusalem Post graduate programs in Tel Aviv and at the National Defense College. He’s also having a UK connection, as he gained his PhD from the London School of Economics, as well as a mid-career MBA from Harvard. Doctor Lerman perhaps you could start with just sharing us your assessment of the war.
00:00:51:15 – 00:00:56:07
Richard Pater
So far, it’s achievements compared to it. The objectives stated.
00:00:56:09 – 00:01:27:16
Eran Lerman
We are at a point in time in which some of the most stellar achievements of the war are already behind us, and the question marks are beginning to pile up as to what comes next in in professional terms. This has been almost year beyond expectations. The, the ability of the Israeli Air Force. Shoulder to shoulder with the Americans, which is in itself a remarkable development and totally unprecedented.
00:01:27:16 – 00:01:54:18
Eran Lerman
We’ve been helped by the Americans before. We never fought shoulder to shoulder as allies. I think the Americans have not had anything similar happening to them for some time already. Going back to 1901 and, and to some extent, to some extent 2003, but with not with the intensity and the, the level of cooperation that we see.
00:01:54:20 – 00:02:27:23
Eran Lerman
The results are that Iran has lost its ability to defend its own airspace. It lost much of its political leadership, including yesterday. Perhaps the most significant person left, in power after, how many was eliminated in the first seconds or minutes of the, of the operation, namely Ali Larijani and the degradation, although obviously not the full destruction of their capabilities in ballistic missiles and so on.
00:02:28:00 – 00:03:08:16
Eran Lerman
But we are coming to the point in which we have to ask ourselves certain questions about what the remaining purposes. First of all, the is the nuclear, file, which is, not entirely dealt with yet. There is this, pile of, enriched uranium to 60%, about 450 kilos of it. The Araghchi was bold enough to put this forward in his talks with Metcalfe, saying, you know, we are within reach of the bomb if we so wish, because we still have that.
00:03:08:16 – 00:04:04:06
Eran Lerman
But it’s not exactly true because the enrichment facilities have been decimated and therefore, the next step from 60% to 90% would require them to first rebuild their enrichment capability in order to be able to make that last short step to, enough fissile material for a number of bombs. But, nevertheless, it is of vital importance, to get to resolve this, issue, whether by, at the negotiating table, which apparently did not happen, or by force and force would mean essentially, penetrating by, probably, boots on the ground, special forces operation, restore what is left has been left of the storage facilities and is found a
00:04:04:06 – 00:04:39:22
Eran Lerman
very delicate matter, which is still, yet to happen, if at all, because it is a very tough decision to make. The second problem, which is as yet not fully resolved, is the Iranian ability or intention to hold the world economies hostage, generally speaking, through their grip on the Straits. Now, this can be dealt with, but, and then the Americans, I think, are making their own plans to do so.
00:04:39:24 – 00:05:06:02
Eran Lerman
Trump was clearly, interested in getting, broader support for this, given that the harm is, shared by the by Europe as well as East and East Asia. That has yet to materialize. The Iranians, acting still the Iranians, what’s left of the Iranian regime is still acting as if they are the masters of the situation.
00:05:06:04 – 00:05:33:07
Eran Lerman
They gave a dispensation to India, China and Pakistan, to, to carry their oil or the oil they need through the, through the streets. They are still acting as if they are masters of the street. That may not last for much longer, because the Americans are preparing options for this. And they’ve asked us also to do more, intelligence wise and operationally, in that direction.
00:05:33:07 – 00:06:24:03
Eran Lerman
But, still, what exactly is going to happen, whether we should see an American takeover of, Rock Island and, and other islands along the Iranian coast, blocking the ability of the Iranians to, to, or to perhaps shipping in the Straits is yet to be seen. Meanwhile, the acute phase of the oil shock has been, managed the release of, of, strategic reserves worldwide as well as the overall operationalization of the jumbo alternative through Saudi Arabia and other solution and have mitigated to some extent, not fully, but to some extent mitigated.
00:06:24:05 – 00:06:55:18
Eran Lerman
The impact of what the Iranians are trying to achieve. But by now, I would say that control of the Hormuz Straits has become, in some ways, the crux of this war. And that has yet to happen more broadly, of course, this war is neither Israel nor the United States defined regime change as a war goal as such, because that would have meant that we would have to continue to fight, a long war.
00:06:55:20 – 00:07:40:24
Eran Lerman
Forever and a forever war is the American, detractors like to call it, until the regime is overthrown. That’s not the case. Language Israel and the Trump administration are using refers to creating the conditions for the Iranian people to take their fate into their own hands. And that involves, degrading the command structure of the passage of the IRGC, of the, of the Iranian leadership, altogether and, and, weakening their ability to inflict on their people what they did in early January.
00:07:41:01 – 00:08:19:11
Eran Lerman
The problem is that this is this remains not only extremely uncertain. There are indications that what was a religious ayatollah regime is by now a fully brutal, murderous, regime of the IRGC and such a terror organization in everybody’s books, by the way, including all or most of Europe. But the IRGC, through Mujtaba, and the people surrounding him, now in full grip of, of the country, it’s a brutal situation.
00:08:19:11 – 00:08:56:04
Eran Lerman
It could change. They could it could disintegrate. And, we have still not seen action, but we might end up seeing action also from the minorities in Iran, ranging from the Azeris and Kurds in the north to the, to the Arabs, of the of the Hoosier state. No, regional as was, and, we also may see the discipline beginning to break within the repression, Iranian repression system, but it hasn’t happened yet.
00:08:56:06 – 00:09:25:14
Eran Lerman
And we need to steel ourselves to the possibility that it may not happen. And we shall, have to come to a stage in which we may accept, or force the Iranians to accept, a ceasefire and then settle down to strangle the, the regime by, by other means, essentially by economic means, because at the end of the day, it is no longer viable.
00:09:25:20 – 00:10:04:15
Eran Lerman
It’s no longer viable, as a ruling proposition, the Gulf Arabs. No, I think, while angry with to some extent with Israel and the United States for putting them in that situation, now increasingly, inclined who asked the Americans to still pursue this to the bitter end, for the simple reason that, and Iran, under the idea eventually Iran on the Mujtaba and the IRGC is even more of a problem than it than it was.
00:10:04:17 – 00:10:42:04
Eran Lerman
And, and, we may be looking at, at least I would say a few more weeks of, of, pressure aimed at, increasingly degrading Iranian abilities, taking out the taking away the control of the Hormuz Straits, if possible, taking out, the what’s left of the, enriched uranium stockpile and hoping, but not, but know we are not in a position to verify or certify, the collapse of the regime.
00:10:42:04 – 00:11:22:18
Eran Lerman
As such. Meanwhile, in Israel, we are taking civilian casualties. A couple in this, in the 70s was murdered in Ramat Gan. But overall, the effectiveness of the Iranian missile campaign, which has been, prolonged and intensive, has been more limited than it was in June. Clearly, the IDF and, and our American allies are, getting better at, as hunting launches, but nevertheless, it is not over yet.
00:11:22:20 – 00:12:18:23
Eran Lerman
Hezbollah in the north has joined in against the very core interests of the country in which they in which they live, Lebanon, which has no interest in this war as, such and is seeking an accommodation with Israel. And the Israelis has responded by, on one hand, moving our forces into Lebanon, into southern Lebanon to secure, a line, way as much as far as possible from, communities in the north which are not evacuated this time, but also, indicating a willingness to negotiate, with the Lebanese government to talk with the Lebanese government and at the highest relevant level, that’s the same as Netanyahu’s most trusted, person,
00:12:19:00 – 00:12:56:04
Eran Lerman
namely, Ron Dermer, assigned to this mission. I think on Trump’s side, his, his son in law, you know, his in-laws, sorry, the father of their son in law is involved and, and, of his daughter is the father of his daughter in law is involved. Sorry. And Joe had bullets and, the Lebanese government has openly, and I would say quite courageously spoken about, willing to sit with Israel.
00:12:56:06 – 00:13:35:20
Eran Lerman
This courage has yet to be translated into action to cut down Hezbollah. They have spoken about arresting 9000 for taking the country into a war without it, without authorization. Whether any of this would happen, is yet to be seen. But we have seen tectonic shifts in the political politics of Lebanon. We are seeing, degrading, but not yet collapse of the Iranian regime, the Israeli public at large, specifically in, in the Tel Aviv area will be called Gush Down the Drain.
00:13:35:22 – 00:13:54:00
Eran Lerman
And conservation, is sorely tested by a continuation of the missile campaign. And we are, I believe we are looking at a few more weeks in which some of the answers will be given.
00:13:54:02 – 00:14:02:11
Richard Pater
And thank you. If I can ask you first, how do you answer the allegations that Israel has dragged the US into this war?
00:14:02:13 – 00:14:34:13
Eran Lerman
They are about as very, as is veritable. If I look at Joe Kent as his claim that his wife died in a war manufactured by Israel, we did not manufacture Daesh. Unless you read the, I don’t want to use, unpleasant language. The validations of the likes of, Candace Owens and, and, and, Tucker Carlson, who isn’t a government agent and apparently also was willing to do some favours to the Iranians, which didn’t turn out very well.
00:14:34:15 – 00:15:06:07
Eran Lerman
So, this this person is clearly and is going back also to the, the famous infamous allegation that Israel was behind in the 2003 war in Iraq. Again, falsehood. I know that very well. The Sharon government very much wanted the US to stay focused on Iran as a challenge rather than on sit down. So, the whole thing is, is, just a screed.
00:15:06:09 – 00:15:30:04
Eran Lerman
Israel did not drag the United States into this. Israel made its own knowledge about what the Iranians were doing since June available to the Americans. Now, let me say something in a very general sense, and I’ve been saying this for the last on and off, mostly on for the last 20 years. This Iran is an international problem of the first order.
00:15:30:09 – 00:16:13:08
Eran Lerman
And it is not just our problem in the sense that unlike North Korea, if Iran would have broken the nuclear barrier, first of all, it would have made them, extremely powerful in in a region in which they have, significant allies and proxies, in a, in a way much the North Korea simply does not have. I mean, the little boy with his leather jacket has no support anywhere, not even in, in Europe, in, in Western academic circles, if I may be cynical for a moment, Iran is a different proposition.
00:16:13:08 – 00:16:54:22
Eran Lerman
Imagine a region led by a nuclear Iran into rebellion against the existing order. The second thing is that I like North Korea, which did not push, South Korea or Japan or Taiwan, into, into countering by their own nuclear project because they are already sheltering against China under the American wing. What would happen here is that if the U.S. and Israel fail to prevent Iran from having a bomb, Saudi Arabia would go and they would, you know, say, make, procurement in Pakistan, which maybe they’ve already done and deploy it.
00:16:54:24 – 00:17:33:04
Eran Lerman
Turkey, Egypt. We would that the entire dam of the NPT that was built painstakingly since the Cuban Missile Crisis would come down. So, the Iran is not an Israeli problem alone. It is an Israeli problem because they are committed to destruction. But it is not our problem alone. And therefore, the nuclear, the nuclear issue is always some, at the forefront for several American administrations, whether they try to deal with it through negotiations, by the way, preceded by brutal economic pressure.
00:17:33:06 – 00:18:04:17
Eran Lerman
Hillary built it. And if I may be blunt, John Kerry squandered it in, in in negotiations. It could have been much tougher. And then again, Biden tried to negotiate with the Iranians. They refused, essentially. And so did Trump. Not, if you if you, if you take, the, the accounts of, a week of and Kushner as to what transpired in the talks was on actually, you get the clear impression that the Iranians were simply playing for time.
00:18:04:19 – 00:18:34:10
Eran Lerman
So, this is not an Israeli instigation. Israel is a partner. Israel has done a lot to focus the world, attention to this problem. But the problem in itself is not something that needs to be resolved because Israel needs its resolve, but because it is a threat to the future of the of the regional and international order.
00:18:34:12 – 00:18:57:08
Richard Pater
And, and what do you make of the, of the UK position? I mean, I know that in your past roles at the National Security Council, you held high level, encounters, engagement with the UK officials. I just wondered if we could game out if you were in that position today. What would that conversation look like between yourself and, and British officials?
00:18:57:10 – 00:19:22:11
Eran Lerman
I appreciate I want to repeat what happened to me when they, UK and actually, at the time, it was a parliamentary vote. Walked off, the retaliation against Syria after the use of chemical weapons on the Syrian population. And I, I at the time I was still in government and called a good friend at the, the British Embassy.
00:19:22:13 – 00:20:13:00
Eran Lerman
And I asked, Peevishly if he would kindly remind me what the, G stands for in GB license plates. That wasn’t a great moment. And it isn’t a great movement. Not, whether you like the initiative or not, so much is now hanging in the balance. Including, by the way, a potentially fatal weakening of the Russian, Chinese, North Korean, Iranian, the drink, axis that, for, for Britain and for others in Europe to basically declare that they would sit this out, is as it is one is tolerance to Napoleon.
00:20:13:00 – 00:20:16:03
Eran Lerman
It’s worse than the crime. It’s a mistake.
00:20:16:05 – 00:20:46:23
Richard Pater
And just one, one last question for me before I open it up. We’ve seen kind of the, the, the, the Gulf countries come under enormous attack as well, primarily because the Iranians have such a plethora of, medium and short range, weapons. Do you see at any point, the Gulf states also kind of responding with, with offensive measures and kind of as a follow up, how much you see, kind of especially in the case of Qatar, that they will change their position in postwar with relation to Israel and, and the reformulation of their position.
00:20:47:04 – 00:21:16:20
Eran Lerman
I wouldn’t bet good money on the countries, being reformed. They are masters of manipulation. They their position is closely linked to that of Turkey. What is coming out of Turkey now is its vile anti-Semitic stuff. On the Ramadan television series and, and highly problematic language. But the countries and the Turks are going to have some role in the in Trump’s Gaza scheme.
00:21:16:20 – 00:21:53:02
Eran Lerman
So, they, I would say that they would try to, as usual, play both sides. As for the others in the Gulf, I would give credence to the reporting in the last few that I’ve seen in the last few days that, well, as I said, while angry and frustrated because this war was initiated without, letting them know in advance, without giving them the opportunity to prepare properly, and, and, perhaps with an overly optimistic assessment of whether Iran would retaliate against them or not.
00:21:53:04 – 00:22:22:24
Eran Lerman
The Gulf is now understanding the consequences. The Gulf let’s say both the Saudis and the Emiratis, certainly the Bahrainis who are under, an active Iranian threat of subversion, understand that if this war does not end with a clear and, and resounding defeat of the Iranian regime, whether they stay in power, greatly weakened or are actually overthrown.
00:22:23:01 – 00:22:48:24
Eran Lerman
If this does not happen, the level of risk to the future would be intolerable. So, they, I give credence to the report that they are encouraging Trump to continue, and they are doing what they can to mitigate the impact on the oil markets and for offensive operations. The Emiratis have shown themselves able of doing things here and there.
00:22:49:01 – 00:23:25:24
Eran Lerman
I don’t want to go into the question of whether they’ve done something already because they’ve reacted very angrily to leaks in Israel in this respect. But I would say that the Saudi record is somewhat less, stellar. Basically, their defence doctrine goes like this. We’re going to buy, a lot of, of first-rate, and extremely expensive American weapons so that if we come under attack, the Americans will come to save us so we can continue to buy extremely expensive American systems.
00:23:26:01 – 00:23:53:04
Eran Lerman
That has always been the case. And I don’t see this being, changed by much. Where they could make a difference is that if once the regime begins to weaken, if the minorities, it’s, go on to march, the Arabs would actually assist directly, the Arabs in who’s a stand who, very strategically positioned in Iran said, oil producing, energy producing areas.
00:23:53:06 – 00:23:55:09
Eran Lerman
But this has yet to happen.