What’s happened: There was a notable de-escalation in southern Lebanon yesterday, following two days of incidents which nearly brought the June ceasefire to a breaking point.

• The Israeli air strikes on Monday and Tuesday were in or near the Shiite town of Nabatieh, with the deadliest occurring in the nearby village Kfar Roumanne, where Lebanese officials reported twelve killed in an air strike described by Israel as targeting a Hezbollah weapons transport.
• The Israeli air strikes were in response to Hezbollah drone attacks on IDF positions earlier this week, in violation of the ceasefire in place since June 19.
• Lebanese officials quoted anonymously in the media described the Hezbollah drone attack as a deliberate provocation by Hezbollah in an attempt to provoke an Israeli response and extricate itself from the closing noose around it. The Israeli daily Yediot Ahronot published an extensive interview with an unnamed senior Lebanese official on its front page this morning reiterating this point.
  • Elsewhere in the interview, the same senior official from Lebanon made repeated references to the prospect of reaching a full peace treaty with Israel at some point in the future. “The Lebanese people now dream of peace with Israel,” he was quoted as saying. “This hope began when Israel killed Nasrallah. Hezbollah is Lebanon’s cancer, but in order for it to succeed, we need your help. Israel must promise us that there won’t be an Israeli occupation in Lebanon.”
  • Regarding Hezbollah disarmament, he said, “It’s clear to us that only you can do the job, but do it properly. You need to declare that when Hezbollah is disarmed, Israel will make a complete withdrawal. Then peace will be possible between our countries.”
• At the same time, Lebanese officials speaking publicly directed their ire more at Israel than at Hezbollah, with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun calling the Israeli air strikes a “dangerous escalation.”

Context: According to both Lebanese and Israeli observers, Hezbollah sought to escalate the fighting at the beginning of the week in response to the significant strategic setback it absorbed on — and under — the Ali Taher Ridge, overlooking Nabatieh.

• IDF forces had besieged the massive underground facility inside the ridge all summer, with large numbers of Hezbollah fighters apparently holed up inside. The facility, containing command centres, weapons depots, and living facilities and supplies for extended deployments, had been constructed over the course of two decades by Hezbollah’s Badr Unit with financing from the Islamic regime in Iran, according to official Israeli sources.
• Late last week, the IDF announced that it had achieved “operational control” of the ridge and its underground facilities. Prime Minister Netanyahu followed on the IDF’s announcement saying that “a great many terrorists were eliminated there,” but gave no specific figures, and neither did the IDF. Pictures of the operation, carried out by the IDF’s 36th Division, were also not forthcoming for the time being.
• Israeli officials hinted that once the facility under Ali Taher was destroyed, it would be more likely that Israel could continue withdrawing its forces from southern Lebanon. This is a notable development as Israel officials had been publicly expressing deep disappointment with the performance of the Lebanese Armed Forces in the small “pilot zones” which the IDF handed over to the LAF in southern Lebanon in late July. Three pilot zones were established six weeks ago, in Zawtar al-Gharbieh, Froun, and Srifa, as explicit prototypes for further Israeli withdrawals. In all three, according to Israel, the LAF did not effectively carry out full disarmaments of Hezbollah. In the Yediot interview referred to above, the senior Lebanese official effectively conceded that Israel’s disappointment was justified, but blamed the LAF’s general weakness for the problem.
• Diplomatic efforts continue, mostly mediated by the US, to reach a more robust Israel-Lebanon agreement that would see a full withdrawal and, at a minimum, some kind of long-term non-belligerency pact between the two states if not a full peace treaty. The US sent its ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa for a short visit to Israel last week just before the most recent escalation to convey messages between the two governments.
• It is likely that Issa’s brief visit to Israel was also connected to a deal that was quietly negotiated between Israel and Lebanon regarding the release of prisoners held by Israel in exchange for Lebanese help locating the remains of Jewish community leaders who were kidnapped and murdered in Lebanon in the 1980’s.
  • Israel released five civilian detainees, three Lebanese citizens and two Syrians, and handed them over to the Red Cross on the border at Rosh Hanikra – Naqoura.
  • Eleven communal leaders of Lebanon’s tiny Jewish community were kidnapped and murdered in 1984-87, and the bodies of seven of them have never been recovered.
  • The agreement was promoted by US officials as a confidence-building gesture for both parties.
• The topic of the Israel-Lebanon problem was also a major concern at the fourth MEAD Conference underway this week in Washington. MEAD (Middle East American Dialogue) brings together representative from 24 countries, mostly in the middle east, for Chatham House-style talks and includes Israel as well as several countries which don’t maintain formal diplomatic relations with it. The MEAD conference was apparently where the Yedioth interview with the senior Lebanese official took place.

Looking ahead: For now, it appears that spectre of a major escalation has passed. The Lebanese government is keen to keep the pressure on Hezbollah, let Israel do the heavy lifting of disarming Hezbollah where the Iran-backed terrorist organisation is most firmly entrenched, and then accept responsibility for more pilot zones where and when the required effort to keep Hezbollah out will be significantly less.

• The next diplomatic milestone will be not in Washington but in Rome, where Lebanese and Israeli officials are due to meet for direct talks on September 15 and 16.
• The IDF is on a heighted state of alert across all fronts as the Jewish High Holidays begin tomorrow evening.  

What’s happened: The IDF announced on Thursday that they have now cleared and neutralised the two underground tunnels in the Ali al-Taher Ridge area in the southern Lebanon.

• According to the IDF, “The underground infrastructure sites contained command centres, weapons storage rooms, generator rooms, living quarters, showers, and a kitchen, which enabled the terrorists to manage combat and remain underground for extended periods of time. The infrastructure is a strategic underground network that was built over two decades and funded and planned by the Iranian terror regime.”
• Also on Thursday Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office announced that Israel will be releasing today five Lebanese citizens who were detained in southern Lebanon.
• According to the PMO, the decision to release them followed, “significant activity” by both Israel and Lebanon in recent months to “locate and return the bodies of the leaders of Lebanon’s Jewish community, who had been abducted and by terrorist organisations in the mid-1980s.”
• Earlier this week Prime Minister Netanyahu hosted a meeting with the US Ambassadors to Israel and Lebanon. The latter, Michel Issa has been deeply engaged in the direct Israel-Lebanon talks mediated by Washington.
• On Tuesday evening Hezbollah fired two explosive drones towards IDF troops operating in the area of the Ali Taher ridge. The soldiers successfully shot down one of the drones, whilst the second one crashed, no soldiers were injured. In response the IDF said it struck Hezbollah infrastructure in the Nabatieh area.

Context: The tense standoff with Hezbollah fighters trapped in tunnels under Ali Taher ridge had been the central focus of IDF operations in southern Lebanon since the ceasefire was agreed four months ago.

• Over the last few weeks it was thought that dozens of Hezbollah fighters had been trapped underground. Following the IDF announcement Prime Minister Netanyahu declared, “Today we can already say it: We eliminated a great many terrorists there.” Though some are thought to have escaped.
• According to a military official, “Hezbollah’s “Badr” Unit constructed these underground tunnel routes with joint funding and planning by the Iranians. The two underground routes were used by the unit’s terrorists to manage missile, rocket and drone arrays; conduct combat against IDF soldiers; and carry out terror attacks against Israeli civilians over the past several decades.”
• Over the last three years this underground complex was used continuously by Hezbollah.
• The IDF will now begin to destroy and incapacitate the tunnels after which they will adjust their defensive posture on the ridge.  
• So far the IDF has not released any footage of the captured tunnels. One explanation is to not further provoke the Iranians who had threatened a response if the ridge was attacked. It had been suggested that Iranian IRGC personnel were also trapped in the tunnel, but this does not seem to be the case.       
• The IDF has implemented new defensive measures to counter the threat of drones, which caused at least five fatalities earlier this year, this includes defensive nets and methods of interception, along with the integration of several new tools that have since become operational, but the IDF are yet to reveal. In addition troops are drilled to be ever vigilant over IEDs in the vicinity and other means of attack.
• There had been hope that the pilot programme envisioned in the Israel – Lebanon agreement (whereby the IDF would withdrawal and hand-over control to the Lebanese Armed Forces) would be further advanced by now. Israeli defence officials say that the LAF has faced real difficulties and has failed to act to achieve the objectives. Akin to previous efforts, the LAF troops have refrained from conducting searches of private homes and terrorist infrastructure in the villages. Instead, they have opted to operate only in open and public areas.
• Beyond operational difficulties, there are also oversight issues. It is understood that there was a proposal to have Italian military forces supervise the process, but that plan has yet to be implemented.  
• This was the context of the meeting earlier in the week with the US ambassadors. Israel is hoping US pressure on the Lebanese government and military will force the parties to move forward with an agreed-upon enforcement mechanism.
• The IDF has now been operating in southern Lebanon (with varying degrees of intensity) for almost three years. In that time they have dramatically degraded Hezbollah’s capabilities. A new report by the Alma Research and Education Center indicates a profound shift in Hezbollah’s recent  behaviour, which has adapted itself to the new reality. After the threat of invading the Galilee was dealt a fatal blow and the Radwan Force’s infrastructure was destroyed, Hezbollah abandoned broad plans and shifted to decentralized guerrilla operations by small teams, in a format similar to that used in the Gaza Strip. However, they continue to gather intelligence about IDF troops, studying their methods of operation, mapping their locations and taking notes on their work methods in preparation for a scenario in which the fighting is resumed in the format of infiltrations, ambushes, firing explosive drones and laying clusters of improvised explosive devices.

Looking ahead: The Northern Command is currently preparing for the upcoming Jewish holidays and the start of winter. These preparations have included drills, clearing roads and  preparing for combat under extreme weather conditions.

• Israeli and Lebanese diplomats are expected to meet again soon in Rome for an eighth round of direct talks.
• To a large degree quiet on Israel’s northern border remains a direct function of the balance of deterrence against Iran. Defence officials believe that if hostilities between Washington and Tehran escalate further and if Israel is drawn into the fighting, this will immediately affect the Lebanese theatres as well.

What’s happened: IDF troops on a special mission in Lebanon found and recovered the remains of First Sgt. Yehuda Katz, the last IDF soldier who has been missing-in-action ever since the 1982 battle of Sultan Yaakoub in the first Lebanon War.

• The IDF informed Katz’s family this morning.

Context: In 2019, the Syrian opposition released a document from 1984 indicating that Katz had been buried by the Syrian army alongside Zachary Baumel and Zvi Feldman, two other Israeli soldiers who were killed and went missing in the same battle.

• Baumel’s remains were returned to Israel in 2019 with assistance from Russia.In May 2025, Feldman’s remains were recovered in a special joint operation in Syria by the IDF and the Mossad.
• The battle of Sultan Yaakoub was fought against the Syrian army on June 11, 1982, on the sixth day of the first Lebanon War. Twenty-two IDF soldiers were killed in the battle, more than 30 were wounded and two soldiers were captured alive and were held as POWs until they were returned to Israel at a later date. Three of the soldiers—Katz, Baumel and Feldman—were formally declared missing-in-action.
• There remain two more IDF soldiers classified as missing in action:
  • Ron Arad, an Israeli Air Force navigator. On October 16, 1986, his aircraft was damaged during a mission over Lebanon. He ejected and was captured by the Shiite Amal militia. Israel received information about him for a period, but contact eventually disappeared, and his fate and whereabouts remain unknown.
  • Guy Hever, an IDF soldier who disappeared on August 17, 1997, after leaving his base in the Golan Heights. He was 20 years old. No confirmed evidence has established what happened to him, and the IDF continues to classify him as missing.

Looking ahead:  Katz’s remains have now been brought back to Israel for burial and closure for his family.

What’s happened: Progress has been reported on the Lebanese army’s deployment in southern Lebanon.

• On Friday, Lebanese media reported that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) had redeployed troops to the towns of Froun and Burj Qalaouiyah. They are located close to the yellow line, Wadi Saluki and the Litani River.
• As they are technically outside of the IDF’s security zone, no IDF soldiers withdrew from the area in order for the Lebanese army to enter. Israeli forces are currently stationed close by, but slightly further south in the Zatar al-Sharqiya area, and will be required to withdraw from there as the deal progresses.
• In parallel, Lebanese President Aoun arrived in Washington and met Secretary of State Rubio on Sunday. The Lebanese Embassy in Washington said the meeting would deal with bilateral US-Lebanese relations, regional security, and continued American support for Lebanon’s sovereignty, stability, territorial integrity, and state institutions.
• Following the meeting Rubio praised Aoun and the courage of the Lebanese government for their, “determined effort to reclaim Lebanon’s sovereignty, disarm Hezbollah and dismantle its terrorist infrastructure, and move towards peace.”
• Over the weekend IDF soldiers identified a Hezbollah drone in the area of Tebnit. According to the IDF, “Following the identification, the Israeli Air Force conducted searches in the area and identified a Hezbollah terrorist cell that had been operating drones and taking cover near the Security Zone and IDF soldiers. Shortly after, the IDF struck the terrorists in order to remove the threat posed to the IDF soldiers operating nearby. The terrorists’ actions constitute a violation of the ceasefire understandings.”
• Also on Saturday, a Lebanese Army vehicle drove over an explosive device in the area of Al-Mansouri, within the Security Zone in southern Lebanon. As a result, a Lebanese Army soldier was killed, and two additional soldiers were injured. Following a review, the IDF stressed that its soldiers were not recently in that area and determined that “the explosive device did not belong to the IDF and was most likely placed in the area by the Hezbollah terrorist organisation.” The IDF added that “the Lebanese Army vehicle entered the Security Zone without prior coordination with the IDF, as required according to the existing coordination mechanism.”
• Elsewhere in the region, the US has struck targets in Iran for a ninth consecutive evening. On Sunday, Iran fired four missiles at Jordan, with Jordanian officials saying that US air defence systems intercepted three missiles, while the fourth landed in an open area.
• Israeli officials have warned that Iranian missiles fired on Jordan might miss and land in Israel.
• US CENTCOM announced that two US servicemen were killed in Jordan and that the remains of a third person had been found. In a separate incident an American soldier was killed in northern Iraq while handling an Iranian drone that had been shot down.

Context: Aoun is the first Lebanese president to visit to Washington since Michel Suleiman was received by President Obama in 2009.

• For Aoun it is vital to lock in US commitment and engagement into the political and security process within Lebanon.
• Aoun received his invitation from the White House following the signing of the framework agreement with Israel. It had been suggested that a trilateral meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu was also on the agenda, but this appears premature for now.    
• According to the terms of the agreement, the LAF will gradually assume full and effective security responsibility in the pilot areas, which will serve as a mechanism for the phased and verified redeployment of the IDF and the deployment of the LAF.
• Aoun is expected to ask the US administration for clear guarantees that Israel will continue to withdraw, and the US will step up their support for the LAF. At the same time, Washington expects Beirut to move forward with moves to confiscate Hezbollah’s weapons and to assert state security control in the south.
• Hezbollah for its part has rejected the deal and pledged to continue its “resistance.”  
• As part of the Israel Lebanon agreement secured last month, both countries would aspire to reach a full peace agreement, but the first stage agreed was a phased withdrawal of the IDF, starting with two “pilot zones.”
• Last week the sides held talks in Rome, facilitated by the US. Part of the discussions focused on how to verify that pilot zones under Lebanese army control are free of Hezbollah weapons and fighters.
• Verification remains a crucial component of this agreement, particularly in light of previous failed efforts. It was suggested that the Italians could play a role here, which from Israel’s perspective constitutes a better option than the UN mechanism that so often turned a blind eye on Hezbollah violations.
• Israel remains insistent that any redeployment meets their security concerns.
• Meanwhile the IDF says that there is extensive Hezbollah infrastructure that still needs to be dismantled and is known to exist in several places in southern Lebanon, in particular along the Ali Taher ridge, where it is thought they are still a number of Hezbollah fighters trapped underground.

Looking ahead: With the World Cup over, Israel’s security establishment is braced for further escalations between Iran and the US whilst preparing for various scenarios that could draw Israel into the fighting.

• The IDF is preparing to announce the second pilot zone in Lebanon that they will withdraw from. Additional pilot zones are expected to be discussed soon and will be determined by mutual consent.
• Talks through the Trilateral Framework are expected to continue. The next stage includes technical discussions focused on implementing all elements of the agreement with the goal of reaching a comprehensive peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon.
• President Aoun is scheduled to meet President Trump in the White House on Tuesday.

What’s happened: The IDF destroyed a massive tunnel complex in southwestern Lebanon yesterday that, among other things, was used s a production and launch facility for Hezbollah’s deadly unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and had come to be known by Israeli soldiers as the “Ben Gurion Airport for drones.”

• Hundreds of tons of explosives were used to demolish the facility. Authorities in Israel warned northern residents that they might hear a loud noise and feel the earth shake momentarily, but that this was not an earthquake.
• The tunnel facility was 25 metres deep and more than 200 metres in length. It was heavily reinforced and included multiple blast doors to contain damage from  Israeli air strike. Dozens of UAVs were discovered in the tunnels before their destruction. Hezbollah’s use of fibre-optic UAVs has been particularly deadly for the IDF in the fighting this year, which began on March 2 and continued even after a nominal ceasefire went into effect on April 16.
• The main entrance to the tunnel was located in the centre of the village Majdal Zoun, nestled between the village school and mosque. Majdal Zoun, less than 6 kilometres from the border with Israel, sits atop the so-called Shiite Ridge in southern Lebanon.
• Referring to the ongoing developments in Lebanon, Defence Minister Yisrael Katz said in a press event yesterday that Israel had no territorial claims on Lebanon, but that he would not allow the IDF to “withdraw even one millimetre” without the Lebanese Army fulfilling its commitments to disarming Hezbollah and dismantling its infrastructure. For now, according to Katz, Israel was not planning on any further withdrawals beyond the first two “pilot zones” mapped out in the unpublished security annex to the Israel-Lebanon Framework Agreement, signed last week.
• Elsewhere in the same press event, Katz discussed a large offensive operation against Hezbollah that had to be cancelled due to US pressure. The planned operation consisted of massive air strikes that, according to Katz, would have destroyed Hezbollah. With this operation vetoed due to US concerns about maintaining the ceasefire with Iran, the IDF chose instead to focus on deepening its land operation in southern Lebanon.
• Katz also referred to the possibility of further Israeli action against Iran, either with or without the United States. “Israel’s position is clear,” he said. “There isn’t a reality in which Israel will allow missile fire on its territory.”
• Fighting was reported in Abdin in southwestern Syria, near the point where the borders of Israel, Syria, and Jordan meet. There were other reported incidents of gunfire around Israeli outposts in the buffer zone Israel has held in southwestern Syria since the collapse of the Assad regime in December 2024.

Context: By mutual agreement, the security annex to the Israel-Lebanon Framework Agreement was not made public. Yesterday, a reporter for Asharq Bloomberg released what she claimed was a leaked text of the annex, and it has widely been regarded as authentic. No Lebanese, American, or Israeli officials have denied its authenticity.

• The annex has six points, and it goes into some detail about the “pilot zones” method for staged Israeli withdrawals. It calls on Israel and Lebanon to establish a Military Coordination Group for Lebanon (MCG4L) to oversee the logistics and implementation of the pilot zones.
• A designated pilot zone will be evacuated by the IDF and handed over to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), who will be responsible for “clearance, taking legal measures against all non-state armed personnel engaging in unauthorised activity, and destroy or render inoperable associated infrastructure, including but not limited to weapons, weapons caches, tunnels, and command centres, by those non-state armed groups.”
• A verification method is employed, overseen by both Lebanon and Israel, together with the United States, and any further redeployment is conditioned on fulfilment of the conditions in each pilot zone.
• This entire mechanism is a massive departure from previous ceasefires following previous rounds of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, including those in 1993, 1996, 2006, and 2024. It nowhere mentions the UN or UNIFIL and does not assign either body any responsibility. It implicitly endorses a continued Israeli military presence wherever the LAF is unable to dismantle Hezbollah. It includes a staged and verifiable mechanism for clearing southern Lebanon of Hezbollah arms and infrastructure, rather than just declaring the exercise of full Lebanese sovereignty over its territory as an aspiration. And, together with published Framework Agreement, it brings Lebanon closer to full recognition of Israel than any previous arrangement.

Looking ahead: Pressure is mounting on all sides to move forward to the next stages of the Comprehensive Agreement which ended the Gaza War in October last year. Israel’s public position is that it cannot move on to the next stages unless the commitments to disarm Hamas are carried out.

• According to Israeli media reports, however, the Trump administration submitted to Israel a document laying out a set of demands for Israeli actions on Gaza even in the absence of disarmament.
• These include allowing large-scale infrastructure work, allowing Palestinians to be relocated to designated areas currently under Israeli control, allowing construction for the facilities that are to house the “technocratic” governing committee, known as the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, and the international armed force (ISF) that is supposed to oversee the next stage of implementation.
• Neither has yet entered Gaza, and in principle, both are only to commence work once disarmament has been agreed to. The entry of either would severely limit Israel’s ability to renew military action in Gaza, and the threat of renewed military action is the only leverage Israel has over Hamas right now as it resists carrying out its own obligations under the Comprehensive Agreement.
• In meetings with officials from the Board of Peace and even, according to media reports, directly with at least one US official, Hamas has refused to accept any kind of disarmament as called for in the ceasefire agreement from last October.
• An official IDF intelligence assessment, leaked to Israeli media, indicates that Hamas is preparing for another round of fighting in Gaza. The terrorist organisation has consolidated its governing apparatus over the parts of the Gaza Strip not held by the IDF, and it has, according to military intelligence, been manufacturing IED’s and anti-tank rockets in Gaza while smuggling drones and communication equipment from Egypt.

What’s happened: Israel and Lebanon have signed a framework agreement for a cessation of fighting and roadmap to peace.

• Among the 14 points, the agreement calls for:
  • Mutual recognition between Israel and Lebanon.
  • Restoring Lebanon’s sovereignty over all its territory, including by disarming Hezbollah and dismantling its infrastructure.
  • Direct, immediate dialogue will begin between Lebanon and Israel through designated channels.
  • Lebanon, “explicitly commits to prevent reconstruction funds from flowing to non-state armed groups and connected entities.”
  • The parties to cease acting against each other in the international political and legal arenas.
  • Work to locate the remains of missing persons (possibly a reference to IDF serviceman Ron Arad) and the release of prisoners.
• Defence Minister Katz called the signing of the document a “historic event and an important diplomatic and security achievement for Israel.”
• Katz emphasised that, “Israel is not withdrawing from Lebanon and is maintaining the security zone, including Beaufort. Israel will not redeploy in Lebanon and will not withdraw as long as Hezbollah is not disarmed throughout Lebanon and the safety of the northern residents is not ensured….If Iran tries to attack Israel in order to prevent the implementation of the agreement—we will act against it with great force.”
• The agreement also received backing in Lebanon. The prominent Sunni leader, Lebanese parliament member Fouad Makhzoumi, wrote, “For the first time in Lebanon’s history, Lebanon and Israel have signed an official trilateral framework.” He termed it “a historic milestone and a decisive step on the path to achieving a just and sustainable peace with Israel, to resolving longstanding issues through diplomacy, to strengthening the authority of the Lebanese state, to ensuring the state’s exclusive right to bear arms, and to ending the existence of Hezbollah’s weapons and those of all militias, thus creating the necessary conditions for security, stability, and prosperity.”
• Meanwhile, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem announced that the government in Beirut had “stabbed the resistance in the back,” and that the agreement “is null and void.” Hezbollah member of the Lebanese parliament, Hussein al-Hajj Hassan, said, “This is not an agreement. This is a surrender. We do not recognise the agreement. It will not be implemented.”
• In parallel to the diplomatic agreement, IDF operations in southern Lebanon continue. On Sunday evening the Prime Minister and Defence Minister announced that the IDF had destroyed underground terrorist infrastructure in the area of the village of Majdal Zoun in southern Lebanon. The tunnel was over 200 metres long and more than 25 metres deep, contained hundreds of weapons and several launch silos intended to target the territory of the State of Israel and its citizens.
• Netanyahu and Katz added that Israel updated the United States and the US representative in Lebanon in advance regarding the destruction of the infrastructure.
• Discussing the war in general at a press conference after the signing, Netanyahu said, “Hezbollah had 150,000 missiles and rockets, and we eliminated about 90 percent of this vast arsenal. We astonished them with the pagers, we eliminated Nasrallah, and we eliminated the commanders of the Radwan Force. In the last two weeks alone, we eliminated over 200 terrorists, and since the beginning of the war, over 9,000 Hezbollah terrorists.”

Context: The agreement enshrines popular sentiments held by the majority of both Israelis and Lebanese, such as the necessity of guaranteeing the safety of the residents of northern Israel, and southern Lebanon and their shared aspirations for a peaceful border.

• Israel is hoping that the provisions in this new agreement override the components relating to Lebanon that appeared in the US-Iran MOU. Unlike the MOU, Iran is not party to this deal, and neither is Hezbollah a signatory.    
• At the very least, this agreement should serve to counterbalance the Lebanon component of the Iranian-US MOU and may neutralise the influence of the Iranian, Qatari, Pakistani monitoring cell over the ceasefire, even rendering it redundant.
• Another positive sign is the angry reactions among Hezbollah supporters. Hezbollah would prefer the implementation of the US-Iran MOU instead.  
• The agreement does not call for an immediate IDF redeployment and in fact sets no time limit. Instead it places the burden of proof on the LAF to effectively show they can take over locations when the IDF withdraws and ensure Hezbollah does not return.        
• Analysts have noted that this agreement is structured in a similar pattern to the US brokered agreement for Gaza (and Iran). Similar to that deal which is stuck translating the necessity to disarm Hamas, so too, have the LAF in the past promised to root out Hezbollah but have so far failed to deliver.
• The agreement makes no mention of the Palestinian issue. Traditionally, Lebanese governments conditioned a peace deal with Israel on progress toward the two-state solution in the context of the 2002 Saudi peace initiative.

Looking ahead: As in any agreement, the test will come in translating the principles on paper to implementation on the ground. Several previous agreements, going back to 2006, have spoken about the need to remove Hezbollah, weapons, fighters and infrastructure from southern Lebanon and empower the LAF, so far with only limited results.

• According to the agreement, “the two countries will work to establish working groups to draft the full comprehensive peace and security agreement.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu noted, “Israel and Lebanon have agreed on two adjacent areas near the Yellow Line, recommended by the IDF, where there will be a pilot programme for disarming Hezbollah and transferring the territory to the control of the Lebanese army.”
• However, in other areas, the PM pledged “IDF commanders and fighters will remain in the security zone in southern Lebanon and will continue to destroy terrorist infrastructure, remove threats to northern communities, and safeguard the security of Israel’s citizens.”
• Israel remains coordinated with the US over the Iranian threat. Over the weekend, Admiral Brad Cooper, Commander of US CENTCOM once more visited Israel and held talks with IDF Chief of Staff Zamir. The two military leaders discussed plans to be implemented should fighting with Iran resume.

What’s happened: The US State Department hosted the latest round of talks, led by the respective ambassadors from Israel and Lebanon.

• According to Israeli media reports, and contrary to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s previous commitments, Israel is preparing to make a partial withdrawal from southern Lebanon.
• A senior Israeli official told Channel 13 News, “We conquered territories in recent days for the purpose of negotiations in order to withdraw from them.” Adding, “We will withdraw from a small parcel of territory in southern Lebanon, a small percentage of the territory…We need to let the US try their pilot programme.”
• Elsewhere, according to Israel Hayom, Netanyahu sent the US president a direct message, saying that he would not be able to accept dictates regarding a troop withdrawal from Lebanon. The White House would be better served by not making demands of that kind so as to avert a conflict. This message was conveyed yesterday via Israeli Ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter.
• Ambassador Leiter himself related to the process that began in Washington and is now also part of the agenda in the wider US-Iran talks. He is quoted as saying, “We sat in the same car and travelled to the same destination, with the United States serving as the locomotive. The train was heading in a very clear direction: full peace between the countries, Iran and its malign influence out of Lebanon, the disarmament of Hezbollah, and peace and security for Lebanon and Israel. Today, this train is in danger of derailing. I hope we can get it back on track.”
• According to Leiter, “The basic premise was that Iran was not involved, and the main discussion is about Lebanon and Hezbollah — not about the extent to which Iran can restrain Hezbollah…That is not Iran’s role. Its role is to get out of Lebanon. The role of the Lebanese government is to exercise its sovereignty. Sovereignty means that Iran will no longer be involved… in Lebanon.”
• Also yesterday, Lebanese President Aoun spoke out against both Israel’s presence in south Lebanon and in a reference to Iran “other foreign interference.” (Lebanese officials rarely call out Iran by name).

Context: There currently appear to be four elements of the Israeli-Lebanon diplomatic process. The two formal tracks in Washington, one political and second security, a separate dialogue between Israel and the US, and the new mediation mechanism of the US along with Iran, Pakistan and Qatar, which Israel is not included in.

• Israel is highly concerned that the talks between Iran and the US in Switzerland will have direct repercussions on the Lebanese track.  Vice President JD Vance has said that very good progress had been made on the deconfliction mechanism between Israel and Hezbollah, and that Hezbollah would be part of the dialogue.  
• The new coordination mechanism is different from the mechanism that was formed following the November 2024 ceasefire in which Israel, the Lebanese government, France, and the US were partners. This time, according to Vance, Hezbollah – through Iran – is effectively party to the talks.
• Israeli officials reject the framing of deconfliction. As Ambassador clarified, “Israel is not in conflict with Lebanon. Therefore, deconfliction is not the issue. All that is needed is coordination with Lebanon… The only issue is Hezbollah. Hezbollah must be defeated and removed from the equation. Instead, there is a danger that Hezbollah has received a boost. It certainly feels stronger and bolder.”
• Leiter also warned that, Iran is expected to benefit from a flow of funds under the MOU, asking how “we ensure that these funds do not find their way to Hezbollah? If we cannot guarantee that, then all the words we agree to here will make no difference, because Hezbollah will simply rebuild itself.”
• There remains a high degree of concern that in the meantime the US has imposed restrictions on the IDF and on the Israeli government.
• Israeli officials maintain that troops are free to act inside the yellow line security zone where they continue to decommission Hezbollah infrastructure and counter immediate threats, but are forbidden to operate in more distant areas, such as Beirut and Tyre.
• In one incident on Tuesday the IDF said, “soldiers identified four Hezbollah terrorists riding a bulldozer and a motorcycle who had crossed into the security zone and approached the soldiers, posing an immediate threat. Following the identification, the soldiers conducted warning fire. After the terrorists continued to approach and failed to comply with the soldiers’ calls, additional fire was conducted in order to remove the threat. Hits were identified.”
• Despite these claims, former Prime Minister Bennett said he had spoken to soldiers and commanders who had fought in Lebanon and who reported that they have seen Hezbollah terrorists re-establishing themselves, repairing infrastructure, arming up, and returning to activity, and Israeli soldiers are forbidden from opening fire on them.
• In addition, they have reported seeing Hezbollah terrorists observing IDF soldiers with binoculars, and they are not allowed to shoot. He added that “When Netanyahu and Israel Katz announced… that the IDF has freedom of action in Lebanon—they didn’t tell the truth…The truth is that our boys’ hands are tied in Lebanon. This is the situation on the ground right at this moment. This is abandonment. There’s no such thing as sending our boys against Hezbollah terrorists with their hands tied! Release now, at this very moment, the hands of our soldiers!”

Looking ahead: The talks are scheduled to continue today on the security track at the Pentagon.

• The focus is expected to focus on the details of an Israeli withdrawal from part of southern Lebanon currently held by the IDF. As part of the pilot plan, the US will train Lebanese Armed Forces, who will take over areas relinquished by the IDF and ensure no Hezbollah presence returns.  
• US pressure on Netanyahu to have the IDF withdraw from parts of southern Lebanon could intensify with time, but at this stage a full withdrawal is all but impossible from Netanyahu’s perspective.