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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated November 9, 2023

US and Israel strike Iranian proxies in Syria

Regional: Israeli and American forces reportedly carried out separate airstrikes on Iranian proxies in killing 12 fighters.

  • US officials said that two F-15 fighter jets dropped multiple bombs on a weapons storage facility near Maysulun in Deir el-Zour in eastern that was known to be used by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.
  • A senior US defence official said the strike was aimed at “disrupting and degrading the capabilities of groups directly responsible for attacking US forces in the region” by specifically targeting facilities associated with the Revolutionary Guard.
  • The Pentagon says 45 American troops have been injured in Iraq and in attacks by Iranian-backed militia during the past month. Of those, 32 were at al-Tanf garrison in southeastern Syria, with a mix of minor injuries and traumatic brain injuries, and 13 were at al-Asad air base in western Iraq.
  • US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said attacks against US troops must stop. “The President has no higher priority than the safety of US personnel, and he directed today’s action to make clear that the United States will defend itself, its personnel, and its interests”.
  • “If attacks by Iran’s proxies against US forces continue, we will not hesitate to take further necessary measures to protect our people,” Austin added.
  • The US has 900 troops in Syria, and 2,500 more in neighbouring Iraq. Since October 7, the US has sent warships and fighter aircraft to the region, including two aircraft carriers.
  • On 26 October, US forces attacked two facilities used by the IRGC and groups it backs.
  • Also Wednesday, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen said they shot down an American drone. “Our air defences were able to down an American MQ-9 while it was carrying out hostile surveillance and espionage activities in Yemeni territorial waters as part of American military support” for Israel.
  • In separate news, Syrian official news agency SANA said Israeli air strikes hit military sites in southern Syria, causing material damage.
  • Also yesterday, the IDF said jets struck a number of Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon in response to recent rocket and missile attacks on the border. Separately, the IDF says it struck a cell in southern Lebanon preparing to carry out an attack near the Biranit camp.

Gaza: IDF infantry, tank and special-ops units continued to operate in and around Gaza City.

  • IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said, “Hamas has lost control in the north. The Hamas leadership is cut off. They are sitting in bunkers, cut off. Cut off from the public, cut off from their terrorists who are fighting on the ground against our forces and being killed.”
  • The IDF announced that two soldiers from the Nahal Brigade’s 931st Battalion were killed yesterday, taking the number of soldiers killed in action during the ground campaign to 35.
  • The IDF says it has found and destroyed some 130 tunnel shafts in the Gaza Strip since the ground operation began last month, including one yesterday adjacent to a UNRWA school in the northern Gaza Strip.
  • Despite Hamas efforts to prevent them doing so, yesterday some 50,000 Gazans moved south as Israel extended the 10 am to 2 pm window to travel along the humanitarian corridor by an hour.
  • Speaking to the New York Times, Khalil al-Hayya, a member of Hamas’ politburo in Qatar dismissed the idea the group wanted to govern Gaza, and expressed support for endless conflict.
  • “Hamas’s goal is not to run Gaza and to bring it water and electricity and such,” says al-Hayya. “This battle was not because we wanted fuel or laborers,” he adds. “It did not seek to improve the situation in Gaza. This battle is to completely overthrow the situation.”
  • Hamas media consultant Taher El-Nounou told the paper. “I hope that the state of war with Israel will become permanent on all the borders, and that the Arab world will stand with us.”
  • A Hamas terrorist captured after the massacre on October 7 admitted that the group uses ambulances to evacuate fighters. “Al-Qassam have their own ambulances, some of which are located on military bases. The ambulances look like civilian ambulances so they don’t arouse suspicions and are not attacked by Israel,” said one of the captives during his interrogation. “During the fighting, the ambulances are used for things including evacuated wounded fighters. They are also used to deliver food, IEDs and weapons because it is a secure way to transfer those things.”

Hostages: Talks are reportedly underway for the release of a dozen hostages held by Hamas, including six Americans, in return for a three-day ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

  • A source close to Hamas said that “Talks revolve around the release of 12 hostages, half of them Americans, in exchange for a three-day humanitarian pause, to enable Hamas to release the hostages and to enable Egypt an extended [period of time] to deliver ,” the source claims.
  • Other reports suggest that Qatar is mediating negotiations between Israel and Hamas for the potential release of 10-15 hostages held in Gaza in exchange for a short ceasefire.
  • Families of the hostages said in response that “We will welcome the return of every hostage who is in Gaza. However, the Hostages and Missing Families Forum adheres to its position that any movement towards a ceasefire has to include the release of all of the hostages from Gaza.”
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “I’d like to put to rest all kinds of false rumors we’re hearing from all kinds of directions, and reiterate one clear thing: there will be no ceasefire without the release of our hostages.”

November 8, 2023

Israeli forces extended deeper into the Gaza Strip

What happened: As Israel’s ground manoeuvre enters its twelfth day today, the IDF continues to close in on Shati, in the central Gaza Strip, as well as on Shifa Hospital.

  • PM Netanyahu said yesterday that the IDF has reached deeper into Gaza than Hamas ever imagined. “In the south, the war is moving forward with force that Hamas has never seen… Gaza City is surrounded. We are operating within it, we are deepening the pressure on Hamas every hour, every day… Hamas is discovering that we are reaching places they thought we would never reach.”
  • As Israel continued its advance, thousands of Palestinian civilians moved southward in a convoy yesterday waving white flags – heeding multiple IDF calls to do so.
  • also continued to enter Gaza. Yesterday, 96 trucks carrying international were transferred to Gaza via the Rafah crossing. These included 15 carrying medical supplies, 31 carrying food, eight carrying water, and 19 carrying supplies for shelters.
  • As of yesterday, 665 trucks have entered Gaza, with deliveries of vital . This includes over 3,000 tons of food, over 1,720 tons of medical equipment, over 600 tons of equipment for temporary shelters, and over 1.15 million litres of water.
  • An IDF soldier was killed in fighting in the northern Gaza Strip yesterday, taking the total number of soldiers killed since the start of the ground offensive to 32.
  • During the fighting, IDF troops spotted a Hamas squad hiding in a mosque. They were killed with air support as soon as they left the mosque and headed for tunnel shafts. Hamas has fired anti-tank missiles at IDF troops from several civilian locations, including a hospital.
  • The IDF also reported that in the course of a raid on a school that had served as a base for rocket fire and other terrorist activity, troops from the 402nd Brigade killed a number of terrorists, and found several rocket launchers and a large trove of other weapons on school grounds.
  • The IDF this morning announced that an airstrike overnight killed Muhsin Abu Zina, “one of the leaders of weapons production” for Hamas who specialised in manufacturing “strategic weapons and rockets.”
  • In the north, more than 20 rockets were fired yesterday from Lebanon into Israel, as US diplomats continue to try to remove Hezbollah from the spiraling fight.
  • IAF jets demolished Hezbollah sites including a weapons warehouse, rocket fire installations, infrastructure for directing terror attacks and more.
  • Netanyahu warned Lebanon’s Hezbollah that it would be making the “greatest mistake of its life” if it opens a new full-on war front.
  • During a press conference in Beirut after meeting Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, US envoy Amos Hochstein said that “the United States does not want to see conflict in Gaza escalating and expanding into Lebanon. Restoring calm along the southern border is of utmost importance to the United States and it should be the highest priority for both Lebanon and Israel.”

Context: President Biden has reportedly urged Netanyahu to agree to a three-day pause in the fighting in Gaza to facilitate progress in releasing some of the hostages being held by Hamas.

  • According to the proposal on the table, Hamas will release 10-15 hostages and will use the three-day pause to verify the identity of all the hostages it and other groups in the Gaza Strip are holding, and will provide a list of their names.
  • Hamas issued a statement on Tuesday announcing that it had been prepared to release 12 foreign nationals who are being held hostage, but Israel stymied that.
  • Netanyahu does not trust Hamas to keep its word. In 2014, Hamas attacked IDF troops in Rafah during a 2014 humanitarian ceasefire, killing several soldiers and kidnapping Hadar Goldin. Netanyahu is also reportedly worried that Israel won’t be able to renew its war efforts after a significant lull in the fighting.
  • Israeli officials believe that Hamas holds roughly 180 hostages, Palestinian Islamic Jihad holds roughly 40 hostages, and another 20 hostages are being held by crime organisations, mainly in the southern Gaza Strip.
  • While Hamas’s ability to launch rockets on Israel has gradually diminished alongside the Israeli advance, sirens sounded yesterday in the Tel Aviv area and in Rishon Lezion, while today saw a rocket attack on the Kissufim area, adjacent to central Gaza.
  • The US continues to clarify its position on the ‘Day After’ the war.
  • State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said that the United States agrees “there is no returning to the October 6 status quo,” adding “generally speaking, we do not support the reoccupation of Gaza and neither does Israel…our viewpoint is that Palestinians must be at the forefront of these decisions and Gaza is Palestinian land and it will remain Palestinian land.”
  • She added “Israel and the region must be secure and Gaza should and can no longer be a base from which to launch terror attacks against the people of Israel or anyone else.”

Looking ahead: The coming days could prove to be decisive regarding the fight against Hamas and the American-Qatari effort to secure a hostage deal.

  • Some believe that beyond that point, Israel is unlikely to be able to withstand American pressure for a ceasefire, especially if a hostage deal is on the table.
  • Foreign Minister Cohen will head to Brussels tomorrow, along with families of Israeli hostages, where he will speak in front of the European parliament.

November 7, 2023

Netanyahu: No ceasefire without the release of hostages

  • Prime Minister Netanyahu told US network ABC News that Israel would remain in control “for an indefinite period [Israel] will have the overall security responsibility [of the Strip] because we’ve seen what happens when we don’t have it,” Netanyahu explained, “When we don’t have that security responsibility, what we have is the eruption of Hamas terror on a scale that we couldn’t imagine.”
  • Asked whether Israel will accede to US pressure to implement humanitarian pauses to allow the delivery of additional aid and for civilians to flee, Netanyahu said “there’ll be no cease-fire, general cease-fire, in Gaza without the release of our hostages.”
  • “As far as tactical little pauses, an hour here, an hour there. We’ve had them before, I suppose, will check the circumstances in order to enable goods, humanitarian goods to come in, or our hostages, individual hostages to leave. But I don’t think there’s going to be a general cease-fire.”
  • He added, “I think it will hamper the war effort. It’ll hamper our effort to get our hostages out because the only thing that works on these criminals in Hamas is the military pressure that we’re exerting.”
  • When asked if would take responsibility for the failures on October 7 Netanyahu replied, “of course” but that was “going to be resolved after the war.” Adding, “The first task of government is to protect the people and, clearly, we didn’t live up to that.”

Gaza Strip: IDF forces continue to advance into more neighbourhoods within Gaza City.

  • As they advanced troops documented a children’s scouts clubhouse also housed rocket launchers.
  • In a second location troops exposed a rocket launching site within the compound of a mosque which included an electricity cable running inside the mosque and more than 50 rockets that were ready for firing.
  • The IDF confirmed they killed another senior field commander, Wael Asefa, the head of Hamas’s Deir al-Balah Battalion. Asefa was one of the commanders responsible for sending Hamas “Nukhba” terrorists into Israeli on October 7th.
  • The IDF also confirmed they have taken control of another Hamas military stronghold in the northern Gaza Strip. The post was found to contain anti-tank missile launchers, weapons and intelligence materials.
  • Israel again opened a safe passage to allowing Gazan civilians to leave the north for the south. IDF soldiers checked IDs and made some arrests of known fighters among the civilians.
  • Defence Minister Gallant taunted the Hamas leader saying, “Sinwar is hiding in a bunker and is letting the field commanders die on the ground.”

The north: Around 30 rockets were fired from southern Lebanon at Israel’s northern communities in the space of an hour yesterday.

  • No Israeli injuries were reported, as sirens sounded in Nahariya, Acre, and several nearby towns in the Western Galilee and the Krayot areas.
  • Responsibility for 16 of the rockets was claimed by Hamas in southern Lebanon, who said it had fired at Nahariya, Haifa, and other towns.
  • The IDF responded with artillery fire on the sources of the rocket launches, later also targeting airstrikes on Hezbollah positions, including a site housing “technological assets,” a weapons depot, rocket launch positions and other infrastructure.
  • With the majority of the 20,000 residents of Kiryat Shmona already having fled south following previous rocket fire from Lebanon, Israeli authorities urged the remaining approximately 3,000 to evacuate.

West Bank: In a joint operation the Israeli security establishment carried out a targeted strike in Tulkarem against a vehicle with four terror suspects inside.

  • Among the four were both the local head of the Hamas military and the Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, (Fatah’s military wing).
  • According to the Shin Bet, they were responsible for dozens of past shooting attacks and had also been planning additional attacks, including planting explosives.
  • In the last month more than 1,350 wanted men have been arrested, over half were affiliated with Hamas.

Context: As the IDF advance inside the Gaza Strip the military echelon continue to ask for patience to carry out their mission.

  • The political leadership is inclined to support the military, but wary that international pressure will also increase.
  • Precise Palestinian casualty figures are difficult to reliably report, given that information on them comes from the Hamas-run Health Ministry. According to the ministry’s figures, over 10,000 Gazans have died since October 7th
  • Unlike Hezbollah, Hamas have not announced how many of their fighters have been killed, but Israeli estimates that over 3,000 fighters have been killed.
  • Compounding the issue, yesterday new footage emerged of combatants launching rockets in civilian clothes, another violation of international law.
  • It is estimated the IDF has killed around 15 battalion commanders, but targeting Hamas’ most senior leaders remains a high priority.
  • There is concern that some senior commanders could have fled south among the civilian population. There is also concern that there may still be underground tunnels running north to south underneath the bisected strip.
  • The IDF civilian crossing is the first time the Gazan civilian population have directly encountered IDF troops since Israel’s withdrawal in 2005.
  • In a further effort to rehabilitate the image of the Israeli military, yesterday Lt Gen. Halevi the IDF Chief of Staff spoke of unprecedented coordination between fighter jets and troops on the ground. In direct communication the fighter jets operated within 200 metres of ground forces striking a terror cell preparing an ambush in adjacent building 130 metres from ground troops.
  • Monday’s rocket fire from Lebanon came a day after an Israeli civilian was killed by an anti-tank guided missile, the second civilian killed on Israel’s side of the border in attacks by Hezbollah and Palestinian Lebanon-based terrorists since October 7. Six IDF soldiers have also been killed in the north.
  • Hezbollah targets are struck in response to rocket fire, regardless of whether they came from their sites or those of Palestinian terror groups operating in southern Lebanon. As the de facto ruling authority in the area, Hezbollah is considered responsible.
  • According to AFP calculations, at least 81 people on the Lebanese side of the border have been killed, including at least 63 Hezbollah members, eight Palestinian terrorists, a number of civilians, and one journalist.
  • In a speech last Friday, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah made clear that the October 7th attacks were planned entirely by Hamas.
  • Israeli military and intelligence continue to estimate that Nasrallah does not seek a major escalation on the northern border, but is planning for the worst-case scenario. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said Sunday that the military was “ready at any moment to go on the offence in the north.”
  • For the last month, at least 240 Israelis have remained hostages inside Gaza.

Looking ahead: Shifa Hospital in Gaza City remains a significant target, as it is considered to be one of Hamas’s major headquarters. Israel is anticipating a PR success when it can prove this decade-old claim.

  • There are plans to remove civilian patients from the hospital. One option is to evacuate them to a French naval hospital off the coast.
  • The UAE is also planning to set up a field hospital in southern Gaza.
  • Though no official policy on a post-Hamas Gaza has been declared, various scenarios have been speculated, including the Palestinian Authority assuming control with the support of regional and international actors.

November 6, 2023

Gaza City encircled by IDF ground forces

What’s happened: On the 31st day of the war, IDF troops in the Gaza Strip are now surrounding Gaza City.

  • IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Hagari said, “IDF troops… have reached as far as the beach in the southern part of Gaza City and they have encircled Gaza City. Essentially, today there is north Gaza and south Gaza.”
  • The IDF also confirmed it has struck 450 military targets belonging to Hamas in the last 24 hours.
  • Hagari also presented IDF video evidence of Hamas using an underground shaft in the grounds of Sheikh Hamad hospital. In a second clip, gunmen are seen shooting from the hospital.
  • As the IDF increases the pressure on Hamas, Hagari revealed the extensive efforts Israel has made to warn Gazan civilians to leave the combat zone via safe passage to the south.
    • The IDF dropped over 1.5 million leaflets over Gaza, over time colour coded to emphasise the immediacy of military ground operations.
    • They made over 19,500 phone calls warning of approaching battle.
    • Over 4.3 million text messages and almost 6 million voice recordings.
  • Relating to the hostages, Hagari emphasised they remain Israel’s top national priority. He said, “we, in the IDF and in the Shin Bet and in all the security agencies, haven’t forgotten. We are making efforts around the clock. We collect every piece of information, we seize every operational opportunity.”
  • Last night Hamas were still able to launch several rockets towards Tel Aviv and the centre of Israel.
  • In the north, Hezbollah fired two heavy waves of rocket fire towards the northern town of Kiryat Shmona. In the first wave one Israeli civilian was killed. In the second wave a house took a direct hit, but the man inside made it into his safe room and was unhurt.
  • Hezbollah claims the strikes on Kirya Shmona were in response to Israel striking a civilian vehicle in southern Lebanon. The IDF was targeting a terror cell, but are checking the details of the strike.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken continued his shuttle diplomacy and was in Baghdad yesterday, where he met with the Iraqi prime minister. Later the same day Prime Minster al-Sudani travelled to Tehran and met Iranian President Raisi, presumably to pass on a message from the US.
  • In parallel, the US has continued to augment its military deployment and last night sent a nuclear submarine to the region.

Context: It has taken just over a week for the IDF to surround Gaza City, which includes Hamas military strongholds and presumably the most senior commanders.

  • The operation is going to plan, though commanders stress they will need time to complete their objectives.
  • They now need to enter slowly and cautiously and target Hamas’s command and operational structure, much of which is underground.
  • The Sheikh Hamad hospital was built by Qatar. The release of the incriminating footage serves to prepare the international community for the next stage of fighting. It exposes how Hamas uses its own citizens as a human shield and why it will be necessary for Israeli forces to target the area. Thirdly, it is meant to highlight for Qatar how they have been manipulated by Hamas.
  • Hagari also presented IDF recordings of an intercepted phone call between Hamas officials discussing the appropriation of fuel reserves designated for another hospital.
  • Israel maintains that there will be no humanitarian ceasefire until progress is made regarding the hostages. This includes no supply of fuel, which would be usurped by Hamas and used to further their war effort.
  • However, it is possible they will agree to a pause, but will hope to make it conditional on progress for the release of hostages.
  • Sieges are not prohibited under international humanitarian law, though their conduct is subject to the obligation to protect the civilian population. The UK’s “Joint Service Manual of the Law of Armed conflict”, for example, notes that: “Siege is a legitimate method of warfare as long as it is directed against enemy armed forces,” while also noting that “the normal rules on precautions in attack apply.”
  • According to COGAT (Coordinator of Government Activity of the Territories), international organisations continue to bring food to the Strip through the Rafah crossing. So far, the entry of 201 trucks of food has been coordinated.
    • Today, 75 trucks carrying international were inspected and transferred to Gaza via the Rafah crossing. The aid is intended for the population in the southern part of the Strip.
    • So far, 526 trucks carrying have been inspected at Nitzana crossing, and transferred to Gaza via the Rafah crossing.
    • On Sunday during the declared humanitarian corridor published by the IDF, Hamas fired towards IDF forces securing the corridor. This was a deliberate act done in order to try and prevent the people from moving south. Hamas continues to endanger the population and tries to prevent their movement.
    • Today, the corridor was opened at 10 am enabling hundreds of residents to cross and move south.

Looking ahead: Entering into Gaza City could be the most dangerous phase of the mission. With narrow allies, Israeli armour will not be able to enter, so troops may need to enter on foot.

  • Israel is encouraging Egypt to facilitate Palestinian patients to cross over and receive treatment in a field hospital on the Egyptian side of the border.
  • IDF Chief of Staff Lt Gen Halevi visited the Northern Command yesterday, and related to concerns saying, “we have heard a great deal about the feelings of the residents in the north. We are ready at any moment to switch to an offensive in the north.”

November 5, 2023

IDF establishes strongholds inside Gaza

Gaza Strip: Fighting continues at various points inside the northern Gaza Strip.

  • According to the IDF, “troops are continuing to eliminate terrorists in close quarter combat and direct aircraft to strike Hamas terrorist infrastructure, weapons depots, observation posts, and command and control centres”.
  • “During the combined activities of ground, air and naval forces in the Gaza Strip, over 2,500 terror targets have been struck.”
  • Palestinians sources have also reported significant attacks, including in the Zeytun neighbourhood, close to the centre of Gaza City.
  • The IDF reportedly struck an ambulance following their assessment that it was being used to transport Hamas fighters.
  • Similarly, the New York Times reported Hamas tried to take advantage of the evacuation of the wounded to Egypt to smuggle out its military operatives.
  • There were also reports suggesting Hamas had killed Gazan civilians attempting to flee to the safe zone in the south.
  • Yesterday, the IDF opened a humanitarian crossing to enable Gaza residents to move south. Hamas attacked the forces at the crossing.
  • Again today, the IDF will open the road for four hours to allow traffic from Gaza City to travel the south on the Salah al-Din road.
  • On Saturday night, a barrage of rockets was directed towards the greater Tel Aviv area. Overnight there was a lull, but rocket fire resumed again this morning, directed at the Gaza periphery.

Lebanon: Hezbollah leader Nasrallah gave a speech on Friday. Significantly, he gave full credit to Hamas for the October 7 attack and claimed this was not coordinated with Hezbollah or Iran. In doing so, he did not commit Hezbollah to all-out war.

  • Instead it has been assessed that Hezbollah will continue to attack along the border, as it has done, without an escalation at this point.
  • Defence Minister Gallant warned Nasrallah, “Yahya Sinwar made a mistake and sealed the fate of Hamas and the fate of Gaza. If Nasrallah makes a mistake, he will seal the fate of Lebanon.”
  • Despite the warning, attacks along the northern border have continued. Rockets were launched from Lebanon towards border communities and anti-tank missiles were fired towards Metula.
  • In each instance, the IDF returned fire to the sources. They also targeted a Hezbollah military infrastructure

Context: Despite the progress, senior officials continue to warn that it will take weeks and months to complete the mission.

  • The advances made on the ground allowed Israeli and foreign defence correspondents to embed themselves and enter into Gaza to see the fighting for themselves.
  • Although the IDF has established static positions and now surrounds Gaza City, their positions remain vulnerable to attack by terror cells exiting from tunnel shafts with anti-tank missiles, mortars, armed drones and sniper fire.
  • In order to complete the mission, they will need to target the underground tunnels network.
  • On Saturday night Defence Minister Gallant said he was pleased with the progress of the ground campaign so far and added that 12 Hamas battalion commanders have been killed.
  • There were four more confirmed IDF casualties from fighting inside Gaza, taking the total since the ground incursion to at least 27. Overall, the IDF confirmed 345 soldiers have been killed since October 7.
  • The number of confirmed hostages inside Gaza also rose to 241.
  • In parallel to the military campaign, Israel hosted US Secretary of State Blinken on Friday, before he then proceeded to Jordan for talks with a number of Arab counterparts.
  • On his Israel stop, Blinken reinforced the US’s ironclad support of Israel, but also referred to US concerns over the conduct of the war. “We need to be doing more to protect Palestinian civilians,” he said.
  • He reiterated US support for humanitarian pauses to the fighting to allow for the entry of aid to the Gaza Strip, including fuel.
  • The US recommendations are grounded in its view that Israel has a limited time before international support for the war begins to wane. The Biden administration is also facing domestic pressure for its support of Israel from the left wing of the Democrat Party.
  • However, a senior Israeli official reassured Yediot Ahronot that “the Americans have told us explicitly they expect Hamas to no longer exist at the end of the war.”
  • From Israel, Blinken proceeded to Amman, where he met with Egyptian, Jordanian, Saudi, Qatari, and Emirati diplomats and a senior official from the Palestinian Authority.
  • Blinken pushed back on pressure to implement a ceasefire, saying that “a ceasefire would simply leave Hamas in place, able to regroup and repeat what it did.”

Looking ahead: The two main military objectives remain destroying the tunnel network and targeting the most senior Hamas commanders.

  • The Israeli government is under pressure from within to do more to secure the release of the hostages.
  • Externally, pressure is expected to grow for at least a pause to allow more humanitarian relief, however IDF commanders are wary that such a pause will be exploited by Hamas.

November 3, 2023

IDF encircles Gaza City as calls for a ceasefire grow

What happened: The IDF has advanced another stage in its war against Hamas, expanding its ground activity further into the northern Gaza Strip.

  • IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said that “The IDF soldiers completed the encirclement of Gaza City, the hub of the Hamas terrorist group.”
  • He added that the troops have “been eliminating terrorists in face-to-face battles, and everywhere where there is combat, even if it’s hard, the IDF and its soldiers have the upper hand. We are constantly working and aiming fire from the air and sea.”
  • The IDF said that around 130 Hamas terrorists were killed in gun battles Thursday afternoon and early evening.
  • This morning, the IDF said it has killed the commander of Hamas’s Sabra-Tel al-Hawa battalion, Mustafa Dalloul, in an overnight airstrike.
  • Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel possessed advanced technology to destroy Hamas’s tunnels. “We have unique solutions to get to all the tunnels and dismantle them from underground. We’re ready to do so. The terrorists will have two choices: they can die in the tunnels or on the surface from our troops’ gunfire, or they can surrender unconditionally. There is no third option.”
  • Four soldiers were killed fighting in the Gaza Strip yesterday, bringing the death toll since Israel began its ground offensive against Hamas to 23.
  • Missile barrages were fired yesterday setting sirens off in Rishon Lezion, Lod, Ramle, Rosh Ha’ayin and Beersheva. No further rocket fire on Israel has been reported since 9.00pm last night.
  • The US is reportedly flying drones over Gaza to help gather intelligence on the locations of hostages.
  • As Israel comes under increasing international pressure for a humanitarian pause, Hagari said “the term ‘ceasefire’ is not at all on the table at the moment.”
  • Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said that Israel would allow fuel to enter Gaza via the Rafah crossing should it determine that hospitals have run out. “We check the situation in the Strip every day. For over a week, they tell us that the fuel in the hospitals will run out, and it hasn’t. We’ll see when that day comes. Fuel will be transferred, with oversight, to the hospitals, and we will do everything to ensure that it doesn’t reach Hamas infrastructure and won’t serve [Hamas’s] war aims.”
  • In the north, last night the military attacked Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanese territory in retaliation for attack on Israel in which two soldiers were injured in the Mount Dov area on the Lebanon border.
  • Separately, an Israeli tank shelled a Hezbollah anti-tank guided squad in southern Lebanon overnight.
  • IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said that the army was well prepared in every sector. “We are employing less than half the Air Force’s power in the Gaza Strip. Most of its strength is prepared and ready, with bombs attached to the wings, to depart and attack in other sectors as well as soon as it’s needed,”
  • In the West Bank, Palestinian news agency Wafa reported that seven Palestinians were killed overnight by Israeli army fire in Jenin and the al-Fawwar refugee camp near Hebron.

Context: Pressure is building on Israel to agree to a temporary humanitarian truce in Gaza to enable a supply of aid and to evacuate the civilian population as well as to potentially facilitate an exchange deal involving the hostages.

  • Yesterday, the New York Times wrote that Secretary of State Blinken will pressure Israel to agree to short lulls to enable the safe passage of and for the hostages’ release. White House sources said that Blinken will relay this message to Netanyahu and other officials.
  • However, in remarks delivered on a trip to London, US Vice-President Harris said “we are going to continue to stand with Israel’s right to defend itself,” and that “we are not going to create any conditions on the support that we are giving Israel…”
  • The UAE is also trying to make intense efforts to achieve a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Noura al Kaabi said at a Abu Dhabi conference “As we continue working to stop this war we cannot ignore the wider context and the necessity to turn down the regional temperature that is approaching a boiling point.”
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu is reportedly considering accepting the US demand for a temporary cease-fire, but Israeli officials said that it would depend on the circumstances.
  • NBC reported yesterday that American and Israeli officials believe that Hamas has more than 750,000 litres of fuel, which it is holding onto to use to fire rockets and operate generators in the tunnels. Last week the IDF released images last week of half a million liters of diesel it said the terror group was holding in the Strip.
  • While the assessment remains that Hezbollah does not currently seek all out war with Israel, the military and security establishments are proceeding with caution.

Looking ahead: Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah is giving a speech this afternoon as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken lands in Israel.

  • In clashes on the northern border, more than 60 Hezbollah terrorists have been killed. The commander of the Iranian Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, the successor to Qassem Soleimani, has been in Beirut since October 8 to potentially coordinate a wider war with Israel.
  • Blinken landed in Israel today, his third visit since October 7. He is scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Herzog and to attend a meeting of the war cabinet. Before departing, Blinken said Washington is focused on the two-state solution.

November 3, 2023

IDF advances towards Gaza City

Gaza Strip: The IDF continued its offensive against Hamas fighters and their military infrastructure. 

  • Commander of the 162nd Armoured Division Brig. Gen. Itzik Cohen said yesterday, “We are at the gates of Gaza City.” 
  • The IDF is focused on dismantling Hamas’s military capabilities, including its ability to launch rockets, and targeting its underground network. 
  • As a high priority, the IDF has targeted several cells that fired anti-tank missiles, including the the Head of Hamas’ Anti-Tank Missile Unit Muhammad A’sar. 
  • The IDF has confirmed that 17 soldiers have been killed in combat in the last five days. 
  • It continues to call on any Gazan civilians remaining in the north to flee south. 
  • The advances and expansion of ground forces is being complimented by “a joint multi-branch effort with air and naval forces… to thwart threats on the ground and strike the Hamas terrorist organisation.” 
  • According to the IDF Spokesperson’s office, “during the operational activities, IDF fighter jets, helicopters, UAVs, naval vessels and artillery are assisting the ground forces by directing and conducting simultaneous air strikes according to the operational need. Furthermore, joint IDF strikes are being carried out based on real-time intel gathered and immediately transferred to the air and naval forces.” 
  • “During these strikes, dozens of Hamas terror targets were struck, including observation posts, anti-tank missile squads and launch posts, naval vessels and military posts. Furthermore, terrorists were killed, infiltrations into Israel were prevented and terror activities were thwarted.” 
  • In one reported incident overnight, 30 elite Hamas fighters emerged from a tunnel with anti-tank missiles and drones. In a three-hour battle, 20 were killed, while others escaped. 

Northern front: Hezbollah continues to attack Israeli targets on the border. In a similar pattern to the last three weeks, incidents in the last 24 hours included: 

  • An attempted launch of anti-tank missiles towards Zar’it. An IDF tank struck the cell. 
  • Gunfire from Lebanon toward the community of Yiftach. No injuries were reported. The IDF is responding with fire toward the origins of the shooting. 
  • Several mortars and anti-tank missiles were launched towards Moshav Shtula, the IDF struck the cell responsible. 
  • Mortars were also fired towards Shomera, northern Israel. No injuries were reported. The IDF is firing toward the origins of the launches. 
  • Rockets were also fired towards Har Dov and Mount Hermon. They fell in open areas. IDF artillery struck the source of the launches in response. 
  • Due to Israel’s success in so far targeting Hezbollah cells, particularly with drones, Hezbollah is now trying to target those drones as well. 

West Bank: This morning, an Israeli man in his 30s was shot and killed near the West Bank town of Bayt Lid. An IDF manhunt is underway for the assailants. 

  • Within the government, a policy dispute has arisen between Defence Minister Gallant and Finance Minister Smotrich regarding the delivery of the tax revenue Israel collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority (PA). 
  • Last Sunday, Smotrich announced a stoppage to the transfer of funds, which amount to about $150 million (£123 million) a month, saying “I do not intend to let the State of Israel finance our enemies in Judea and Samaria who support the terrorism of Hamas and finance the 7/10 terrorists who murdered and massacred us.” 
  • Gallant related to this yesterday, saying “the State of Israel is interested in maintaining stability in Judea and Samaria, always and especially during these times. The funds should be transferred immediately so that these may be used by the operational mechanism of the Palestinian Authority and by the sectors of the Palestinian Authority that are dealing with the prevention of terrorism. I think it is only appropriate to uphold the decision of the cabinet as decided several days ago.” 
  • A decision on the funds is expected to be made by the war cabinet, which will have to balance the concern that some of the funds will end up providing stipends to terrorists with the fact that it remains in Israel’s interest for PA security forces to continue to combat and prevent terror emanating from the West Bank. 
  • In parallel, the IDF continues to operate in the West Bank, arresting dozens of terrorist suspects. 

Gaza humanitarian situation: In parallel to its offensive military campaign, Israel is facilitating  for the civilian population of the Gaza Strip. Here is a summary of the latest update from Coordinator of Government Activity in the Territories (COGAT): 

  • Israel is attempting to enlarge the quantity of aid passed into the Gaza Strip by international organisations, while preserving Israel’s own security interests. 
  • Coordinating between them, Israel, the USA, Egypt, and the UN are passing international through the Rafah Crossing in Egypt.   
  • The aid includes water, food, and medical supplies and A total of 300 trucks have entered since October 21, 2023, including 61 trucks yesterday.  
  • Hamas is in control of fuel reserves and continues to take control of private fuel reserves. Hamas controls supplies to hospitals and other vital facilities.  
  • With Hamas in control of fuel, the water, sewage, and hospital systems are all directly affected. 
  • Hamas places pressure on vital resources for civilians to create a more strained situation in Gaza to increase political tension locally and internationally.  
  • All the vital facilities have alternative energy sources and are attempting to preserve the energy they have private access to.  
  • Food reserves are sufficient for the near term. 
  • International organisations are permitted to bring food aid into the Gaza Strip. 
  • There is hoarding of food — purchasing at the groceries and hoarding by private parties. 
  • Most drinking water has been supplied from within the Gaza strip – only 10 percent of water previously came from Israel.  
  • Over the past two weeks, Israel has opened two water lines from Israel to the Gaza Strip, Birkat Sa’id and Bani Suheila, serving around 220,000 residents of the western Gaza Strip. This was hit by Hamas but has been repaired and is now functioning.  
  • Israel is planning a humanitarian area in the western Khan Younis. International will be routed there as needed. A field hospital will also be established.  

Context: Despite advancing deep into Gaza, the war is now at a critical stage as troops now face the prospect of entering into Gaza City. 

  • IDF commanders are cautioning that this stage of the combat will be slow, deliberate and complex. 
  • Whilst Israel retains support from key international partners, it is aware of pressure to further avoid civilian casualties as possible and expand humanitarian aid. 
  • Israel has come under international criticism for the strike on Tuesday in the Jabalya, which Palestinian sources claimed caused mass civilian casualties. However independent analysts have suggested that the IDF deployed bunker busting bombs that penetrated deep (100m) underground and precisely targeted Hamas tunnels. The resulting explosions deep underground caused an earthquake type effect above ground that caused the collapse of adjacent buildings. 
  • According to the Hamas-controlled Gazan Health Ministry, over 8,500 Gazans have been killed. Yesterday, Gallant confirmed that thousands of terrorists have been killed. 
  • Over 8,500 rockets have been fired towards Israel since October 7th, at least 550 falling short inside Gaza. 

Looking ahead: Despite the military progress, IDF commanders are cautioning that this campaign could still last several weeks if not months. 

  • There is growing anticipation of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah’s speech on Friday afternoon to better understand if Hezbollah and Iran are intent on escalating the conflict. 
  • 400 foreign nationals and dual citizens are expected to be allowed to leave Gaza and cross to Egypt today, as well as around 60 injured Gazans to receive treatment in an Egyptian field hospital. 

 

November 1, 2023

IDF Advances Further into Gaza

Gaza Strip: The IDF announced nine soldiers were killed fighting Hamas in the northern Gaza Strip yesterday.

  • Seven of the soldiers served in the Givati Infantry Brigade and were killed when their armoured personal carrier (APC) was struck by an anti-tank missile.
  • The other two were part of the 7th Brigade and were killed when their tank drove over an explosive device.An additional six soldiers were wounded in the two incidents, three of whom are in serious condition.
  • The IDF continued its incursion into northern Gaza, taking control of the Hamas HQ in Jabalya.
  • Airstrikes on the Hamas tunnels brought down buildings, and the IDF confirmed the death of the local Hamas commander, Ibrahim Biyari, who was one of the leaders of the Nukkba unit that perpetrated the October 7 massacre. An estimated 50 Hamas fighters were also killed.
  • The IDF declared that “underground terror infrastructure embedded beneath the buildings, used by the terrorists, also collapsed after the strike.”
  • IDF Spokesperson Hagari described the fighting as, “face-to-face battles, with our having the upper hand, we seized control of a Hamas stronghold, a stronghold with underground infrastructure, with equipment, thanks to sensitive intelligence that we collected.”
  • In concert with the ground incursion, the Israeli Airforce is continuing to strike Hamas targets from the air, including operational command centres and Hamas terrorist cells. Dozens more terrorists were killed in air strikes.

Attacks from Yemen: Yesterday, the Iranian backed Houthis declared war on Israel and sent two more waves of attack.

  • On Tuesday morning, the IDF confirmed the first operational interception by the “Arrow” Aerial Defence System since the beginning of the war, when they downed a surface-to-surface missile over the Red Sea.
  • On Tuesday evening, Israel’s air defence systems again intercepted a missile launched from Yemen over the Red Sea. No air raid sirens were sounded, but Eilat residents heard the explosion. The Houthi military confirmed they fired three missiles.
  • There have now been four waves of attack from Yemen. As a result, the Israeli navy has reinforced its presence in the Red Sea with missile boats.
  • So far, the Houthi missiles and drones and have been intercepted either by the US navy or Israel, and in one incident by Saudi Arabia. One missile landed inside Egypt in Taba, others in the sea.
  • Yemen is 1600km from Israel, so there is time to track their missiles and intercept them.
  • Israel is considering at what point they will need to respond by attacking Houthi targets inside Yemen, but for now the focus remains on Gaza and the north.

Context: Israel’s ground incursion began on Friday night by entering Gaza at two points. one in the north-east corner and the second at a midpoint of the Gaza Strip.

  • The tactical approach suggests the IDF is bisecting the strip, encouraging civilians to leave for the southern Gaza Strip, whilst the miliary advances towards Gaza City, where Hamas HQ is thought to be located in a vast underground labyrinth.
  • The IDF announced, “Since the beginning of the war, the IDF has struck over 11,000 targets belonging to terrorist organisations in the Gaza Strip.”
  • 11 IDF soldiers have so far been killed fighting inside Gaza. Israeli society is sensitive to these losses, but for now understands the necessity of the ground incursion.
  • On the Palestinian side, the Hamas controlled Health Ministry says over 8,500 Gazans have been killed. At this point the IDF has not released any data, so the number of combatants and civilians killed is unclear.
  • Israel has reassured allies that it is operating within the rules of warfare, is only aiming at Hamas targets, and seeks to avoid civilian deaths as much as possible.
  • Yesterday, Prime Minister Sunak spoke with Prime Minister Netanyahu. According to the Downing Street statement, “The Prime Minister reiterated the UK’s resolute backing for Israel’s right to defend itself against terrorism, while emphasising the importance of taking all possible measures to minimise civilian casualties.”
  • President Herzog told the BBC last night that he regretted the loss of Palestinian civilian life but explained that this was self-defence in response to a murderous terrorist attack.
  • Despite the aerial attacks, Hamas continues to fire rockets into Israel, now totaling over 8,500 launches.
  • Hezbollah has continued low intensity attacks along the Lebanese border, whilst the IDF continues to strike at cells and the sources of fire.

Looking ahead: Following international pressure, Hamas has now agreed to allow foreign and dual nationals inside Gaza to leave via Rafah crossing into Egypt.

  • Egypt is also expected to allow in a limited number of injured Palestinians for treatment in a field hospital that it is setting up on the Egyptian side of the border.
  • Later this week, US Secretary of State Blinken will return to Israel. He is expected to encourage Israel to increase , including fuel.

October 31, 2023

Israeli hostage rescued

Photo credit: Shin Bet

Hostages: In the course of the ground operation inside Gaza, the IDF and the Shin Bet Security Service were able to successfully rescue a 19-year-old female IDF soldier.

  • Private Ori Megidish was rescued on Sunday night, with the announcement only made yesterday afternoon after she had been debriefed and returned to her family.
  • Private Megidish was captured by Hamas when her base at Nahal OZ was overrun on the morning of October 7.
  • According to the IDF, she was held by Hamas on her own, without any other hostages.
  • Earlier yesterday afternoon, Hamas released a video recording of three Israeli women it is holding hostage. The hostages pleaded for Israeli leaders to agree to a ceasefire and a prisoner exchange.
  • Israeli media overwhelmingly chose to show a still image, but not broadcast the recording as it is perceived as part of the Hamas’s manipulative psychological warfare.
  • Nevertheless, it was at least the first proof that these three captives were alive.
  • Israeli analysts have interpreted the released footage as an indication that Hamas is feeling the pressure following IDF advances on the ground.
  • Also yesterday, the IDF confirmed that DNA tests on part of skull belonged to Shani Louk, a 23-year-old German-Israeli whose captured lifeless body was identified on the back of a Hamas truck entering Gaza on October 7.

Ground incursion: Israel has continued its advances deeper inside northern Gaza.

  • Palestinian sources released footage claiming Israeli tanks had reached the Salah al-Din road, about three kilometres deep into the Strip and one of two main north-south routes; the second being the coastal road.
  • The IDF confirmed it “continues with its coordinated ground, air, and sea operations in the Gaza Strip… numerous Hamas terrorists have been killed; hundreds of additional military targets were struck.”
  • “Over the last day, combined IDF combat forces struck approximately 300 targets, including anti-tank missile and rocket launch posts below shafts, as well as military compounds inside underground tunnels.”
  • The IDF also revealed it killed five prominent Hamas operatives:
    • Jamil Baba, commander of Hamas’s naval forces in its Central Brigade.
    • Muhammad Safadi, commander of the anti-tank missile unit in the Tuffah Battalion.
    • Muwaman Hijazi, a prominent operative in Hamas’s anti-tank missile unit.
    • Muhammad Awdallah, a senior operative in Hamas’s production department.
    • Nasim Abu Ajina, commander of Hamas’s Bet Lahia battalion (who was involved in the attack on Netiv Ha’asara).
  • In parallel, Hamas continues to fire rockets towards Israel, mostly short-range, but also towards the centre and Jerusalem. Overall, close to 8,000 rockets have been fired, with over 550 falling short inside Gaza.

In the north: Hezbollah continues to attack along the Lebanese border area.

  • According to the IDF, attacks included:
    • Mortar shells toward Rosh Hanikra.
    • Two rocket landed in open areas near Moshav Elkosh
    • Three anti-tank missiles were fired towards Biranit. No injuries were reported.
  • In all these instances, the IDF returned fire to the source and later attacked additional Hezbollah targets.

Context: The successful rescue mission was greeted as the first piece of positive news in Israel since the initial Hamas attack.

  • It restored some belief that Israel can act with creativity and daring, with the hope for more results like this in the future.
  • For that reason, the details of the rescue mission have not been publicised.
  • This was the first rescue after Hamas released two pairs of female hostages.
  • The latest assessment is that another 240 hostages remain inside Gaza, 30 of whom are babies and children under 16 years old.
  • The successful release of the soldier through a military operation is a blow to Hamas narrative that only a prisoner exchange will bring about their release.
  • In parallel, it was revealed that head of the Mossad Barnea visited Qatar over the weekend to explore the possibility of a deal to release more of the captives, possibly in return for expanded or even fuel. However, it appears his mission was unsuccessful.
  • Families of the kidnapped continue to demand the Red Cross and doctors be given access to the hostages.
  • In a further sign of the widening regional dimensions of this conflict, it was reported this morning that IDF aerial defence forces detected and shot down a drone that tried to infiltrate Israeli airspace in the Eilat area. This appears to be the third time that Houthi factions in Yemen, supported by Iran, have launched rockets or UAVs towards Israel.

Looking ahead: Israel is expected to continue its ground incursion towards Gaza City, to target Hamas military infrastructure and increase the pressure on Hamas to release more hostages.

  • For now Israel has the backing of international partners to destroy Hamas’s military capabilities. In order to extend international legitimacy Israel will need to ensure that medicine, food and water continues to enter in coordination with Egypt and the US.

October 30, 2023

Biden speaks to regional leaders as Israel’s Gaza ground operation continues

What happened: US President Joe Biden spoke with Prime Minister Netanyahu and Egyptian President el-Sissi yesterday.

  • National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had previously said on CNN that Biden would reiterate to Netanyahu that Israel had a responsibility to protect the civilian population of Gaza and “should be taking every possible means available to them” to distinguish between Hamas and civilians.
  • Later, on ABC’s This Week programme, he said Hamas “is hiding behind the civilian population, which puts an added burden on Israel to differentiate between the terrorists and innocent civilians, but it doesn’t lessen their responsibility under international humanitarian law and the laws of war to do all in their power to protect the civilian population.”
  • The official US readout of the Biden-el-Sissi conversation says Biden “expressed his appreciation for Egypt’s leading role in efforts to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian assistance to the civilian population of Gaza… The two leaders committed to the significant acceleration and increase of assistance flowing into Gaza beginning today and then continuously.”
  • “They also discussed the importance of protecting civilian lives, respect for international humanitarian law and ensuring that Palestinians in Gaza are not displaced to Egypt or any other nation.”
  • Britain Prime Minister Sunak and France President Macron spoke by telephone and “agreed to work together on efforts both to get crucial food, fuel, water and medicine to those who need it, and to get foreign nationals out,” a Downing Street spokesperson said. They also stressed “the importance of getting urgent humanitarian support.”
  • The two also “agreed that it was important not to lose sight of the long-term future of the region and, in particular, the need for a two-state solution.”
  • Britain’s Ambassador to Israel Simon Walters said that the UK needs Israel to win the war with Hamas in Gaza. In an interview with Israeli Army Radio he said “Hamas must not remain in control in the Gaza Strip,” adding that “Israel must adhere to the laws of war.” Simon also expressed extreme concern about the rise in antisemitism in the UK. “It’s worrying that during the protests we’ve seen some antisemitic slogans and some calls for jihad. The government is responding to that — it takes the safety of Jewry in the UK very seriously.”
  • The IDF says that over the last day it has conducted strikes against some 600 Hamas sites, including weapons storage sites, hideouts, and staging grounds.
  • IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari said “dozens of terrorists” from “tactical command” were killed during bombing in Gaza. “They were those who command the people and direct them in the field,” Hagari said, accusing Hamas of “using schools, hospitals, and others. They do not want anything other than to use them as a human shield.”
  • Hagari also updated the number of hostages believed to be in Gaza. The military has notified the families of 239 hostages. “It’s an unfathomable number. There are foreign workers among the hostages, it takes us time to reach everyone’s families,” he says.
  • At the request of the US Administration, is entering the Gaza Strip. The aid includes only water, food, and medical supplies. A total of 108 trucks have entered during the past eight days, including 33 yesterday and 24 today.
  • With rocket fire from Gaza continuing, homes were hit this morning when 30 rockets were fired on the southern Israeli city of Netivot.
  • In the north, the IDF carried out airstrikes against several Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon in response to rocket and missile fire on northern Israel. The IDF said targets included “infrastructure for directing terror, and military infrastructure.” Troops also struck another anti-tank guided missile squad in southern Lebanon and carried out a drone strike on a terror operative flying a drone over the border.
  • An IDF reserve soldier was killed, and three soldiers injured in a tank accident on the northern border.
  • Elsewhere, Channel 12 reports a warning by Shin Bet head Ronen Bar to the war cabinet and the wider cabinet of “fears about an eruption” of violence in the West Bank. “The specific warning notes a rise in violence by settlers [and] incidents between settlers and Palestinians that result in the deaths of Palestinians.”
  • According to the report, Israeli sources said that “these incidents are likely to set the area alight” and harm the war effort against Hamas. Palestinians said on Saturday that a Palestinian man was shot dead as he harvested olives near the West Bank village of As-Sawiya.
  • Last night IDF troops conducted an operation in Jenin to arrest wanted men. Palestinian media reported that three Palestinians were killed and nine injured. One of the dead has been identified by Palestinian media as Wiam Hanoun, suggested to be a founder of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad offshoot Jenin Brigade.

Context: As world leaders emphasise the importance of preventing a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, COGAT (Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories) claimed yesterday that Hamas possesses fuel reserves, and is continuing to take control of private fuel reserves. Essential facilities in Gaza depend on the fuel depots of Hamas, which supplies a limited quantity every few days.

  • According to new intelligence received and exposed by the IDF, Hamas has a fuel depot of approximately one million litres, and is controlling the supply of fuel to hospitals and other essential facilities, according to its own interests. It does so to add pressure to the international discourse by creating the public perception of a fuel shortage in the Gaza Strip.
  • Gaza has local energy production based on solar farms and on generators powered by private fuel reserves, COGAT says.  All the essential facilities — hospitals, desalination plants, wells, and the like — have alternative energy sources. For example, 70 percent of the energy needs of the European Hospital are met by solar energy.
  • COGAT also says there is no shortage of food for the near term, and food reserves in the Strip are sufficient for at least a month. Medical supplies are sufficient for the near term, both by Hamas and by the international organisations.
  • According to COGAT, there is also currently no water shortage in Gaza. The Birket Sa’id water line, which was damaged by Hamas mortar fire, has been repaired and is once more supplying water to the residents of the central Gaza Strip. The reopening of the Birket Sa’id water line has improved the water accessibility and quality.
  • In the northern Gaza Strip, the municipalities distribute water from tanks. They also pump water from the ground and into the water system. In the southern Gaza Strip, and particularly in the Khan Younis area which is served by the Bani Suheila water line, there is a constant supply of water.

Looking ahead: The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an emergency meeting this afternoon at the request of the United Arab Emirates. The council has already rejected four draft resolutions – one vetoed by the US, one vetoed by Russia and China, and two that failed to get the minimum nine “yes” votes.

  • Amid concerns of regional escalation, Jordan has asked the US to deploy its Patriot missile defence system to bolster its border defences.

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