What happened: Yesterday was the first day of Israel’s “humanitarian pause” in Gaza, in which military activity ceases from 10:00am to 8:00pm in designated areas where most civilians are located.

• The security cabinet met last night to discuss Israel’s options as the current military offensive, Operation Gideon’s Chariot, winds down without a ceasefire deal in place.
• Negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage release continued in both Doha and Sardinia, with more revelations in media reports about the breakdown in talks last week, largely following new demands from Hamas that surprised and frustrated the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.
• Egyptian and Jordanian aid trucks entered Gaza, and the IDF began airdropping aid into the Gaza Strip as well. According to COGAT:
  • Over 200 trucks were collected and distributed yesterday by the UN and international organisations with additional 260 trucks in Gaza awaiting collection and distribution, along with hundreds of others still queued for UN pickup.
  • Four tankers of UN fuel entered for the operation of essential humanitarian systems.
  • 20 pallets of aid were airdropped in cooperation with the UAE and Jordan.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu conceded that the humanitarian situation in Gaza was “difficult,” but accused Hamas of “stealing aid… many times by shooting Palestinians.”
• The US too sharpened its tone on the humanitarian situation while still laying the blame at Hamas’ doorstep. In an interview yesterday, State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce said, “People have got to get fed, but in the meantime Hamas refuses to put down its weapons, refuses to release the hostages, which could stop all of this in a moment. But that won’t stop us from easing the pain.” 
• Yesterday, during their meeting in Scotland, Donald Trump and Keir Starmer discussed the situation in Gaza:
  • While Starmer recognised the need to free the hostages, he marked the situation on the ground in Gaza as “absolutely intolerable” as Trump emphasised that there’s “a lot of starving people”.
  • Starmer called for stepping up the humanitarian efforts in Gaza saying “There needs to be much more [aid], we need to galvanise other countries in support of getting that aid in. And yes that does involve putting pressure on Israel, because this is a humanitarian catastrophe now.”
  • Trump later announced that he intends to work with European allies to “set up food centres” in Gaza.
  • On the issue of recognising Palestinian statehood – and the ongoing debate over whether Starmer will follow Macron’s lead – Donald Trump indicated that he doesn’t mind if the UK recognises a Palestinian state. The recognition was rejected by the Leader of the Opposition, Kemi Badenoch, on Sunday.
• A three-day rescheduled UN confab sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia – and co-chaired by 16 other countries and delegations, including the United Kingdom – opened yesterday.  The French Foreign Minister said “Only a political, two-state solution will help respond to the legitimate aspirations of Israelis and Palestinians to live in peace and security,” while Saudi foreign minister, said that the kingdom was seeking World Bank approval to transfer $300m to Gaza and the West Bank to counter the dire humanitarian crisis in the territories. 
• The US State Department said the conference was “unproductive and ill-timed” adding that it was “a publicity stunt that comes in the middle of delicate diplomatic efforts to end the conflict.” “Far from promoting peace, the conference will prolong the war, embolden Hamas, and reward its obstruction and undermine real-world efforts to achieve peace.”

Context: With the IDF in control of at least two thirds of the territory, Israeli decision makers are due to find themselves at a critical juncture in the coming days with the current military offensive reaching its natural endpoint. 

• Talks for an agreement that would have led to a ceasefire and a hostage release – which seemed to be reaching an agreement last week – fell apart with the publication of the (mostly European) Foreign Ministers’ Statement and the media furore over starvation in Gaza which put Hamas in a position where it could receive for free what it would have had to pay for in released hostages beforehand. 
• Moreover, the Prime Minister and his Government have three months of relative quiet as a parliamentary recess means the coalition can lumber on without the threat of early elections being called.
• Channel 12 news reported that Israel’s cabinet is considering fully occupying Gaza, alongside a tightened siege on certain areas within the Strip. If carried out, the plan would mean that IDF troops would operate in areas where hostages are believed to be held – a move largely avoided by Israel until now. 
• Perched around Gaza City, and the camps of the central Strip — Nuseirat, al-Bureij and Deir al-Balah — the IDF awaits orders from the Government. An offensive into the camps, largely untouched since the war began, risks losing the hostages forever. The belief that Israel could recover the hostages alive via an agreement with had stayed Israel’s hand until now. 
• Gaza City was also avoided in the current ground offensive. A decision to move in would need to be carefully considered. Yedioth Ahronot’s military affairs correspondent Yossi Yehoshua writes about Gaza City, “Roughly a million civilians are currently concentrated in Gaza City alone. The Gaza City Brigade, Hamas’ last remaining brigade, has formed under their protection. To where can the IDF evacuate the civilians, when most of the Strip has been destroyed and does not allow for further absorption? How can effective fighting be conducted under such conditions? And the biggest question of all: how do you fight in an area where there might be hostages?”
• While US officials, especially President Trump, have expressed extreme scepticism about the prospect of reaching a hostage deal with Hamas, Israeli negotiators briefing local media anonymously continue to project optimism. A new channel of talks opened up in Sardinia, where the Qatari Prime Minister was vacationing earlier this summer.
• Ronen Bergman, also writing in Yedioth Ahronoth, published new revelations about the impasse in the talks earlier this month. The talks focused largely on the chronological steps of the ceasefire and the maps of the Israeli withdrawals. Only after these issues were resolved on July 23, did Hamas suddenly dramatically raise its demands regarding the ratio of prisoners to be released for each Israeli hostage. “That is when the mediating countries and Hamas clashed behind the scenes. The mediating countries accused Hamas of having played them in the negotiations, and Hamas accused them of not doing enough on behalf of the Palestinian people.” Though Bergman doesn’t draw the connection in his article, this was 48 hours after the Foreign Ministers’ Statement, agreed to by 28 countries including the UK, which threatened Israel with diplomatic consequences unless it adhered to a series of conditions that otherwise would have been included in the ceasefire deal.

Looking ahead: Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi are due to arrive in Florida today where they are reportedly set to meet US Envoy Steve Witkoff. Witkoff was due to arrive in Doha to wrap up talks on a ceasefire deal last week, but cancelled after new Hamas demands ended the talks.

• The EU is set to decide tomorrow whether to partially suspend Israel from the European Research Council’s prestigious Horizon Europe grant program. Israeli scientists report a dramatic drop in grants since the October 7 war began, even absent any official decision. The decision would need the backing of a qualified majority of member states.
• Sir Keir Starmer recalled his Cabinet from summer break to discuss the crisis in Gaza. Under mounting internal pressure to join Macron’s recognition of a Palestinian state, he is expected to unveil a comprehensive British proposal for resolving the crisis sometime in the coming days.

What’s happened: Over the weekend, Israel carried out airdrops of aid into the Gaza Strip, which it said were part of a “series of actions aimed at improving the humanitarian response in the Gaza Strip.”

• The airdrop included seven packages of aid containing flour, sugar, and canned food. The IDF stressed that it would “continue to work in order to improve the humanitarian response in the Gaza Strip, along with the international community, while refuting the false claims of deliberate starvation in Gaza.”
• Aircraft from the UAE and Jordan also carried out an airdrop, with the delivery of 28 packages of aid in the northern and southern Gaza Strip.
• Those airdrops were part of a series of measures announced in order to alleviate the humanitarian situation in Gaza. Other steps include:
  • A pause in military activity for humanitarian purposes. The IDF said the decision was coordinated with the UN and international organisations and will begin in areas where the IDF is not operating: Al-Mawasi, Deir al-Balah, and Gaza City, every day until further notice.
  • Designation of secure routes put in place permanently from 06:00 to 23:00 to “enable the safe passage of UN and humanitarian aid organisation convoys delivering and distributing food and medicine to the population across the Gaza Strip.”
• In related news, Egyptian media reported that trucks carrying humanitarian aid began entering the Gaza Strip yesterday through the Kerem Shalom crossing. This is the first time Egypt has delivered aid to Gaza since Israel took control over the Rafah Crossing in May 2024.
• United Nations aid chief Tom Fletcher said some movement restrictions appear to have been eased in Gaza, after Israel decided to“support a one-week scale-up of aid.” Fletcher said that initial reports indicate that more than 100 truckloads of aid were collected from crossings to be transported into Gaza. “This is progress, but vast amounts of aid are needed to stave off famine and a catastrophic health crisis.”
• The World Food Program said that it “welcomed the news that Israel is prepared to implement humanitarian pauses, and that designated humanitarian corridors will be created, to facilitate the safe movement of UN convoys delivering emergency food supplies and other aid to people in Gaza.” It added that WFP has enough food in – or on its way to – the region to feed the entire population of 2.1 million people for almost three months.”
• WFP warned though that the only way for humanitarian assistance to reach the entire civilian population in Gaza with critical food supplies in a consistent, predictable, orderly and safe manner is via a ceasefire.
• In a speech yesterday, PM Netanyahu hit back at claims that Israel was starving Palestinians. He said that “there is no policy of starvation in Gaza, and there is no starvation in Gaza.” Netanyahu argued that Israel had “enabled the amount required by international law” to enter Gaza and that the country enabled “humanitarian aid throughout the duration of the war…Otherwise, there would be no Gazans.” Netanyahu blamed Hamas for taking over the aid and “accusing Israel of not supplying it.”
• Discussing the new safe corridors, PM Netanyahu called on the UN to be more effective in collecting and delivering aid. “There are safe corridors, and the UN has no excuses left. Stop lying… Stop accusing Israel deliberately of this egregious falsehood,” he said.
• President Trump responded to a reporter’s question about images of starving children in Gaza were “terrible.” Trump added that, “They’re stealing the food,” he said, likely referring to Hamas.
• Foreign Secretary Lammy said that Israel’s announcement of humanitarian steps was “essential but long overdue,” and that access to aid must now be urgently accelerated over the coming hours and days. “This announcement alone cannot alleviate the needs of those desperately suffering in Gaza,” Lammy added. “We need a ceasefire that can end the war, for hostages to be released and aid to enter Gaza by land unhindered.”
• In a phone call with Netanyahu, German Chancellor Merz“ expressed his deep concern about the catastrophic humanitarian situation inGaza,” and called on Netanyahu “to do everything in his power to achieve an immediate ceasefire.”
• In other news, two IDF soldiers were killed over the weekend by an explosive device in southern Gaza. The soldiers were named as Cpt. Amir Saad, 22 from Yanuh-Jat and Sgt. Inon Nuriel Vana, 20, from Kiryat Tiv’on.
• The Foreign Ministry announced that the Israeli Navy took control of a flotilla making its way from Italy to Gaza. All passengers onboard the Handala were reported to be safe.

Context: Israel’s decisions to expand aid come in the context of increased global criticism about the humanitarian situation in Gaza, as well as discussions in European capitals about recognising a Palestinian state and potential sanctions on Israel.

• British PM Starmer is reportedly planning to recall his cabinet from their summer break to discuss the situation in Gaza. That move was reportedly decided after Starmer said on Friday the British government would only recognise a Palestinian state as part of a negotiated peace deal.
• The major challenge for Israel – and attempts to end the war – is that diplomatic pressure has converged with greater maximalist demands by Hamas – likely encouraged by accusations of famine in Gaza – over terms of a ceasefire.
• Arab diplomatic officials said over the weekend that talks over a ceasefire are ongoing despite the Israeli and American delegations returning home. They add that it will take more time until an agreement is reached due to the complexity of several issues at the heart of the talks.
• One reason negotiations were suspended was new Hamas demands for Israel to release Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the remains of deceased hostages, and also to release a larger number of Palestinian prisoners than previously agreed in return for ten living hostages. Hamas is now demanding the release of a higher number of the worst category of terrorists – those serving life sentences or lengthy prison sentences due to their involvement in the October 7 attack – in exchange for ten of the hostages.
• Relating to the breakdown in negotiations – and Hamas’ more maximalist demands – US President Trump said “Israel will have to make a decision” on Gaza, adding “I know what I would do, but I don’t think it’s appropriate to say it,” Trump said.
• At the same time there has been criticism in Israel over the government’s policy in Gaza. Writing in Maariv, Ben Caspit excoriates the government’s policy that has led to diplomatic isolation. “Israel is the only country in the world that can deliver huge quantities of humanitarian aid to its enemy in a time of war and still not receive any credit for doing that. To the contrary, it has not only spent hundreds of millions to pay for that, but has also been excoriated by the entire world and finds itself on the brink of sanctions. That’s what happens when you place the country’s national security in the hands of a group of incompetent wretches whose first most prominent trait is extremism and whose second most prominent trait is prattling.”
• People in the inner circles of far-right politicians Ben Gvir and Smotrich’s said they believed that Netanyahu announced the humanitarian pauses in fighting only after the Knesset had adjourned for its summer recess so as to neutralise their ability to pressure him during the next three months.    

Looking ahead: A Downing Street spokesperson says, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will press Donald Trump on ending “the unspeakable suffering” in Gaza when they meet today at the US president’s golf resort in Scotland. Starmer is expected to “welcome the president’s administration working with partners in Qatar and Egypt to bring about a ceasefire in Gaza.”

• “He will discuss further with him what more can be done to secure the ceasefire urgently, bring an end to the unspeakable suffering and starvation in Gaza and free the hostages who have been held so cruelly for so long,” the spokesperson added.

What’s happened: Hamas response causes Israel and American teams to leave Doha negotiations.

• Hamas is understood to have maintained a series of maximalist demands.
• An initial Hamas response earlier this week had been deemed so unreasonable that Qatari and Egyptian mediators refused to share them with the resident Israeli delegation. They reportedly included: the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation ceasing all aid distribution, a significantly narrower buffer zone between the Gaza and Israel border, the release of higher numbers of terrorists than had previously been expected, and Gazans being able to return to the Strip via the Rafah crossing.
• The ostensibly ‘softened’ Hamas response demanded – for the first time – the release of commandos from Hamas’s Nukhba force who participated in the 7th October 2023 attacks on southern Israel.
• The new Hamas demands prompted the US and Israeli delegations to withdraw from Doha and return home. Special Envoy Witkoff branded Hamas as “selfish” and suggested that the group “does not appear to be coordinated or acting in good faith”, specifically citing their “lack of desire to reach a ceasefire in Gaza” as a reason to recall the US negotiating delegation.
• Israeli officials have denied suggestions that this phase of negotiations has collapsed, and stated that while progress has been made gaps must still be closed before reaching the closing stage ahead of a potential deal.
• In related news, French President, Emmanuel Macron, has announced that France will recognise Palestinian statehood in September at the UN’s General Assembly making it the first G7 country to do so.
• In a post shared on X, Macron said “The urgent need today is for the war in Gaza to end and for the civilian population to be rescued. Peace is possible. We need an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages, and massive humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza.”
• It follows a symbolic, non-binding Knesset resolution that recognised the West Bank is “an inseparable part of the Land of Israel.
• While praised by Arab leaders, the US and Israel have condemned Macron’s announcement. Secretary of State Rubio branded it as “reckless”, while Prime Minister Netanyahu wrote that “A Palestinian state in these conditions would be a launch pad to annihilate Israel – not to live in peace beside it. Let’s be clear: the Palestinians do not seek a state alongside Israel; they seek a state instead of Israel.”
• Hamas praised France’s decision, referring to it as a “positive step in the right direction”.
• Prime Minister Starmer has again come under pressure to immediately recognise Palestinian statehood, this time following a report to that effect published by the Foreign Affairs Select Committee.
• All six voting Labour MPs who sat on the committee endorsed the relevant sections of the record along with two Liberal Democrats. The two Conservative members, Aphra Brandreth and Sir John Whittingdale, took a slightly different approach arguing that the UK should only back the move as part of a wider two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict.
• Yesterday, Shabana Mahmood, the British Justice Secretary said that recognition would bring “multiple benefits” and “send a strong message to the Israeli government”. It is understood that several Cabinet ministers are now urging the Prime Minister to action and immediately recognise Palestinian statehood amongst increasing anger against Israel, especially over Gaza’s humanitarian situation. 
• Also yesterday, Starmer issued an unusually strong statement condemning the “unspeakable and indefensible” humanitarian conditions in Gaza which he branded as a “catastrophe” that had “reached new depths”.

Context: Hamas’ demands in Doha followed optimism of a breakthrough and an Israeli compromise on withdrawing troops from the Morag Corridor bisecting Rafah and Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip.

• Israel believes that the diplomatic international pressure on Israel – particularly over the humanitarian situation in Gaza – makes Hamas less likely to agree to a ceasefire arrangement.
• Opposition MK Benny Gantz pointed out that “International pressure on Israel, particularly by distorted claims of purposeful starvation or ‘genocide,’ is perceived, intentionally orchestrated, and peddled by Hamas as negotiation leverage. It significantly hampers the prospects of a ceasefire deal that would bring the hostages home & restore stability to Gaza. The world must stand united in demanding maximum pressure on the terrorists that initiated this war on Oct. 7. Misplaced pressure on Israel rather than Hamas only serves to embolden the group, and undermine efforts to end the conflict in Gaza.”
• Israel has blamed the UN for failing to cooperate effectively on aid provision within the Strip, and maintains that Hamas is confecting and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis to leverage famine claims during ceasefire negotiations.
• While the Gaza Humanitarian Fund has distributed an excess of 80 million meals since May, its existence and operations directly contradict Hamas’s interests, namely allowing starvation to take root and further delegitimising Israel. Israel claims that Hamas has continuously attacked GHF aid distribution centres and workers, yesterday launching a rocket at one of its sites which fell short in the Morag Corridor in the southern Gaza Strip.
• Hamas’s positive response to Macron’s announcement underscores the risks of recognising Palestinian statehood in a manner which effectively rewards Hamas and diminishes its incentives for agreeing to a ceasefire and releasing Israeli hostages.
• Unilateral recognition is seen by Israel as undercutting the prospect of future direct negotiations. It front loads the benefits and removes incentives for the Palestinians to one day return to the diplomatic track. It rewards their intransigence, raising expectations but changes nothing on the ground.

Looking ahead: PM Starmer is due to hold an “emergency call” on Gaza with France and Germany later today where they “will discuss what we can do urgently to stop the killing and get people the food they desperately need while pulling together all the steps necessary to build a lasting peace”.

• Special Envoy Witkoff, Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Dermer, and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani are also expected to meet in Sardinia to discuss ways to reach a ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas, despite last night’s setbacks.
• Yesterday, Israeli and Syrian ministers also met for the first time since 2000 in Paris with American mediation from Special Envoy and Ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack. These talks are understood to have focused on de-escalating tensions in southern Syria.

What’s happened: Media reports indicate that a ceasefire deal is close to completion. White House Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff plans to travel to Rome and meet senior Qatari and Israeli officials on Thursday. If more progress is made, Witkoff will continue on to Doha towards the end of the week.

• Israeli officials expect Hamas to respond to the latest proposal sometime today.
• Amidst ongoing reports of hunger in Gaza, governments and aid agencies took an increasingly harsh tone against Israel yesterday. The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, spoke with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar by phone yesterday, and then posted on social media that “all options remain on the table if Israel doesn’t deliver on its pledges.” This followed reports from the Hamas-controlled Healthy Ministry of at least 20 deaths from malnutrition. 
• While aid organisations condemned Israel for “blocking” aid, Israeli officials released video of 950 trucks of aid that Israel had let cross into Gaza at Kerem Shalom and Zikim for distribution by aid agencies (not the GHF) which had not been collected. “These trucks are just waiting there,” according to the official Israeli update, which again castigated the aid agencies for failing to distribute aid, for allowing aid to be siphoned off for the benefit of Hamas, and for lying about Israeli actions.
• Israeli military officials have said that, “There are diseases in the Gaza Strip, including among children, but not in the context of malnutrition. There may be problems with food accessibility, and we need to expand the aid operations to solve them.” According to the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, (COGAT), an average of 71 trucks transporting fuel, food, baby formula and medical equipment enter the Gaza Strip daily. Some 2,500 tons of baby formula have been delivered in the past number of weeks, and 1.5 million food packages have been distributed to the Gazan public. IDF officials said, “Roughly 950 trucks are waiting to enter at the crossings, but the international organizations have delayed the  process and have contributed to the problem of food security in Gaza. Hamas has been sowing chaos around the aid distribution centers, firing in the area and attacking aid distribution truck drivers.”
• Greece was the site of two incidents involving Israeli tourists and anti-Israel activists. On the Greek island of Syros an Israeli cruise ship was prevented from docking by a pro-Palestinian demonstration. And last night in Rhodes, a group of Israeli tourists were violently attacked by an anti-Israel mob.
• A report in the New York Times suggests that a series of mysterious fires and explosions at strategic sites in Iran over the last two weeks are coordinated acts of sabotage, with both Iranian officials and some European diplomats in Iran quoted anonymously as believing Israel is responsible. Publicly, the Iranians have downplayed the incidents, referring to one as “controlled burning of weeds” and to others as “gas leaks.”
• The Islamic Jihad terrorist group claimed yesterday that it had lost contact with the captors of Israeli hostage Rom Braslavski. This followed an incursion of Israeli ground forces into Deir el-Balah, a town in central Gaza largely untouched by Israeli military action that is believed to be where most of the living hostages are being held.

Context: The deal currently on the table calls for eight living hostages to be released on the first day of the ceasefire and two more on the fiftieth day. Eighteen bodies of deceased hostages are to be releaesed in three tranches over the sixty days of the ceasefire. On the tenth day, a full medical accounting of all living hostages is to be passed over to the Israelis.

• According to a report this morning in Ynet, remaining gaps between the sides are minor. For example, Israel proposed withdrawing up to 1000 to 1200 metres from the Philadelphi Corridor, while Hamas demands the withdrawal be to 800 metres; and the number of terrorists with life sentences to be released by Israel stands at 100 in the Israeli proposal and 150 in the Hamas one.
• Witkoff has previously emphasised that he will only travel to Doha if negotiations are close to coming to fruition.
• Since May, Israel has allowed aid into Gaza by two means: through the US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, mostly in the southern Gaza Strip, and through the UN-backed aid agencies that Israel has criticised for collaborating with Hamas, mostly in the north of the Strip. Official Hamas statistics report at least 1000 Palestinians killed in violence near aid distribution sites in this period, with 288 near the UN-backed facilities and 766 near GHF facilities. These numbers have not been independently verified.

Looking ahead: The Knesset will begin its summer recess this week which should lighten the pressure on the governing coalition.

• Netanyahu currently leads a minority Government following the departure of two ultra-orthodox parties from his government in the last two weeks.

War with Hamas: For the first time since the war began, on Sunday the IDF called on residents of southern Deir al-Balah to evacuate and move south to Al-Mawasi. 

• Deir al-Balah, located in central Gaza, is one of the only areas in which the IDF has not operated at any stage of the war, primarily due to the assessment that hostages were being held there.
• In response to the move, the Hostage and Missing Families Forum issued a statement saying, “The hostages’ families were filled with dread and were rattled by reports that the IDF intends to operate in areas in central Gaza in which it has not yet operated. Can anyone promise us that that decision won’t cost the price of the loss of our loved ones? We expect the prime minister, the defence minister and top IDF officials to urgently explain to the citizens of Israel and the families what the combat plan is and how exactly it protects the hostages who are still in Gaza.”
• The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation announced on Sunday that an additional two million meals were delivered yesterday. According to GHF Interim Executive Director, John Acree, “We’ve now delivered over 82 million meals in Gaza, a reflection of our team’s extraordinary commitment under tremendous pressure. But no milestone will ever be enough until every family in Gaza has reliable access to food. That’s why we continue to adapt our approach, improve communication about site openings, and prioritise safety at every distribution for civilians and our staff and partners. While all other aid groups have stopped delivering food reliably into Gaza, we continue to feed people. I once again call on the UN to work with us to deliver their stockpiles of aid sitting inside Gaza to those in need. We will do all we can to support their efforts.” 
• In parallel, there is a degree of optimism in negotiations in Doha and Israel expects Hamas to respond positively to the new proposal for the IDF’s redeployment in the Gaza Strip. 
• The ongoing talks are currently focused on reaching an agreement over the ratio of Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for the hostages.  
• In an interview on CNN US Envoy for Hostages Adam Boehler said he was “more optimistic” than he had been, and added that “there’s a new sense of ability to get something done.” Boehler added, “I really want to see Hamas take action. And if they don’t, I will tell you something, Israel’s going to have to take some kinetic action.”

Looking ahead: Several Israeli media outlets are reporting that there could be a breakthrough in the hostage talks in the next few days. 

• Everyone is still waiting for news that US Special Envoy Witkoff intends to travel to Doha, which should indicate an agreement is to be finalised. Similarly Israel is ready to send a senior delegation to Doha to expedite the talks.
• The hostage families reject a partial deal, and insist on securing the release of all the hostages dead and alive. Nevertheless the current deal seems focused on the release of ten living hostages and the remains of 18 deceased hostages in exchange for a ceasefire and the release of Palestinian prisoners.

What’s happened: In Doha, persistent gaps in the negotiations for a deal on hostages and a ceasefire appear to have closed slightly yesterday, with Israel agreeing to a much smaller territorial presence in Gaza during the ceasefire than what it had been demanding until now.

• The new Israeli proposal for a withdrawal during the ceasefire left Israel with a much smaller perimeter inside the Strip than previous proposals. This proposal apparently came following pressure on the Israeli delegation from US envoy Steve Witkoff. Multiple media reports indicate that Hamas accepted the new Israeli map.
• Regarding the negotiations, President Trump said yesterday, “We have some good news on Gaza and good news on a couple of things that we’re working on at a very high level.” Final details remain to be ironed out on the exact numbers of prisoners to be released in exchange for the Israeli hostages, as well as on the provisions of aid during the ceasefire. A senior Israeli official was quoted as saying that a deal now was “more likely than not.”
• The apparent breakthrough in hostage negotiations came after Israel submitted a new proposed map of its redeployment in a ceasefire. 
• In the updated map, Israel had dropped its demand to hold on to the so-called Morag Corridor. The importance of the Morag Corridor was in that it would leave the whole Rafah area in IDF hands. This was essential to any Israeli plan for a “humanitarian city” in Rafah.
• This plan, touted by Defence Minister Katz, was vociferously opposed internationally, and in recent days senior officials in Israel both inside the army and elsewhere raised doubts about its legality and feasibility. If it is the case that the plan has been dropped — no such announcement has been made — than an insistence on the Morag Corridor made no sense. And indeed, Israel has apparently dropped this insistence.
• This was not the only reported compromise to emerge from Doha. According to a report on Channel 12 News, Hamas will make do with an assurance from the Trump administration that he will do everything in his power to end the war, rather than a guarantee from Israel that the 60-day ceasefire will conclude the war entirely.

Context: The ultra-Orthodox Shas party announced that its ministers would be resigning from the Government over the Government’s failure to conclude legislation on draft exemptions for the Haredi public.

• Earlier this week, the other ultra-Orthodox party in the Knesset, United Torah Judaism, also quit the Government. UTJ, however, left the coalition entirely, including committee chairs in Parliament, while Shas is only withdrawing its ministers from Government.
• Neither move on its own can force early elections, but both are indication that the coalition in power since the last election in November 2022 may not make it all the way to the next scheduled election in October 2026. The Knesset will go into recess on July 27 and is unlikely to dissolve itself or move on early elections beforehand. It will reconvene on October 19.

What’s happened: Israel’s small war cabinet once more convened on Sunday night in response to pressure from the mediators to prevent the collapse of the talks in Doha. 

• The meeting addressed Hamas’s demand for an Israeli withdrawal from southern Gaza and the plan to build a humanitarian compound in Rafah. 
• The key issue remains the extent of the IDF withdrawal, specifically whether they can retain the Morag Corridor.
• During the meeting, the IDF presented an anticipated timetable for the construction of the “humanitarian city” in Rafah, to which Israel wants to move 600,000 residents of Gaza. The IDF estimates that the construction will take several months at least, and possibly up to a year. The prime minister reportedly responded that this timeframe was  not good enough and needed to be significantly shortened. 
• Over the weekend, the IDF said that the Israeli Air Force struck more than 150 targets throughout the Gaza Strip, “including terrorists, booby-trapped structures, weapons storage facilities, anti-tank missile and sniping posts and additional terrorist infrastructure sites.”
• In the northern Gaza Strip, IDF troops continue to operate in the area of Beit Hanoun, eliminating terrorists and dismantling terrorist infrastructure sites, weapons, and underground infrastructure. 
• Based on intelligence, over the last two weeks the IDF have continued to target  Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) commanders. The IDF released  names of several commanders, including those involved in weapons production, that were eliminated.     
• Also on Sunday, a strike near a water distribution point reportedly killed ten people including several children. The IDF referred to the accident as a “technical malfunction.” The IDF admitted it had erred while targeting an operative from the PIJ.

Context: The weekend did not bring with it the long-awaited breakthrough in hostage deal negotiations in Doha. 

• While talks have not (yet) collapsed, a hope remains that a deal can be reached, the optimism of last week appears to be dissipating.
• Israel argues that Hamas has rejected the latest Qatari offer, whilst Arab sources blame the deadlock on Israel’s demand that the IDF remain in large parts of the Gaza Strip even during the ceasefire. 
• As a result Trump’s envoy Witkoff has not yet travelled to Qatar.
• Within the Israeli leadership, the military is signalling that the risks inherent in the agreement can be taken in order to make progress on getting the hostages released.
• More broadly, the security establishment believes the war in its current form has run its course, whist Netanyahu’s position suggests that he intends to leave the option open to renew the fighting.   
• Proponents of the plan for the “humanitarian city” claim its establishment would be a first chance for a non-Hamas entity to take control of the area. The plan has been heavily criticised by former Prime Minister Olmert, who said it would be a “concentration camp” and that forced movement of the population would constitute ethnic cleansing. 
• Meanwhile, Ministers Ben Gvir and Smotrich demanded guarantees from the prime minister that the fighting would be resumed after the first stage of the deal. Netanyahu said that any promise of the kind would derail the negotiations. 
• Similar to earlier ceasefires, Netanyahu has a majority in the cabinet and in the security cabinet to approve the agreement when and if it is reached, but the scope of the deal that will be presented to the ministers remains unclear.  
• The working assumption is that Smotrich and Ben Gvir might quit the government over a deal, but they would not bring it down by voting in favour of a motion to dissolve the Knesset.  
• The continued air strikes in Bet Hanoun highlight the complexity of the ongoing war, where five soldiers were killed last week in an area held by the IDF since November 2023 and which is located fewer than 2.5 km from the town of Sderot. Despite the IDF presence above ground, and the evacuation of the civilian population last year, IDF intelligence estimates that 60-80 fighters remain in the underground tunnels network.      
• Some analysts have interpreted the intensity of these recent strikes as signalling that Operation Gideon’s Chariots is nearing to an end. It was initially designed to pressure Hamas  to bring about a hostage release. This pressure included degrading Hamas’s military capabilities, targeting its leaders, taking control of more territory and by undermining Hamas’s governance while agitating Gaza’s citizens against it. 

Looking ahead: On Sunday night, President Trump repeated that talks about Gaza are ongoing and expressed his hope that the issue would be concluded in the coming week.

• Israel’s Foreign Minister Saar is visiting Brussels today and meeting with various representatives of the European Union. In parallel, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani is also expected to be in Brussels. 
• On Tuesday the EU is due to discuss a proposal to remove Israel from the EU-Israel Association Agreement, however for this to pass the vote must be unanimous, which is highly unlikely. Saar is expected to highlight the increased supply of aid and fuel to counter allegations of starvation in Gaza.   
• A ministerial committee will convene on Monday afternoon to consider the removal of Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara. 
• In parallel, the trial of Prime Minister Netanyahu has resumed. The State Attorney’s Office representatives will continue today their cross-examination and will focus on Case 1,000 involving gifts received by the Netanyahu family.