Israel’s Channel 12 News has begun running the headline: “Israeli officials confirm: Sinwar eliminated”.
Updated October 21, 2024
Israel’s Channel 12 News has begun running the headline: “Israeli officials confirm: Sinwar eliminated”.
October 17, 2024
PM Netanyahu’s office has sent a message to the hostages families that no hostages were wounded in the strike that may have killed Yahya Sinwar
October 16, 2024
Background The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) was established by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in March 1978. Its primary objective was to assist the Lebanese government in regaining control in southern Lebanon. In May 2000, Israel withdrew from the security zone it had held in southern Lebanon for eighteen years. In accordance with UNSC resolution 425, the UN recognised and confirmed Israel’s withdrawal and compliance. This UN endorsed boundary is referred to as “the Blue Line.”Following the Second Lebanon War of 2006, UN resolution 1701 expanded UNIFIL’s mandate to ensure that Hezbollah would not operate in the area south of the Litani River. Furthermore that area would serve as a buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon, free of armed personnel, assets, and weapons with the exception of UNIFIL and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). As of September 2024, UNIFIL comprised approximately 10,000 peacekeepers from 50 countries. Indonesia is the biggest contributor with over 1,200 personnel, followed by India, Ghana, Nepal, Italy, Spain, France and Ireland. They are tasked with patrolling the region, facilitating Humanitarian Aid, and supporting local governance initiatives. Despite these efforts, its effectiveness has come under substantial criticism.Every year, UNIFIL’s mandate is renewed at the end of August. At this year’s meeting, Israel’s representative to the UN noted that Hezbollah has built a vast arsenal of rockets in southern Lebanon in UNIFIL’s area of operation. 90 per cent of the missiles fired at Israel that week were launched from civilian areas in their jurisdiction. |
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UNIFIL’s failures and Hezbollah violations since 2006 UNIFIL has struggled to fulfil its mandate due to significant operational constraints. For example it has been denied access to key areas misclassified as “private property” and over the years its personnel have encountered frequent threats and intimidation by Hezbollah. In 2009 the UN confirmed that Hezbollah violated UN resolution by stockpiling arms and ammunition south of the Litani River, following an explosion at an arms depot in the southern Lebanese village of Khirbet Silim. In 2015 Hezbollah launched a cross-border ambush, firing an anti-tank missile at an Israeli convoy. Two IDF soldiers were killed and seven injured. Since at least 2017, Hezbollah has circumvented UNIFIL and 1701, by operating under the guise of an NGO, “Green Without Borders”, which has established over 30 outposts along the Israeli border. In August 2023, the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, designated the Lebanon-based “Green Without Borders” and its leader, Zuhair Subhi Nahla, as affiliates to a terror organisation. In August 2018 UNIFIL personnel tried to take photographs near Majdel Zoun. Hezbollah operatives seized UNIFIL peacekeepers’ weapons and set fire to their vehicles.In December 2018, the IDF exposed Hezbollah attack tunnels dug from southern Lebanon into northern Israel. One of the tunnels entered 40 metres in Israel. At Israel’s request UNIFIL carried out an independent assessment confirming the existence of four tunnels close to the Blue Line in northern Israel. UNIFIL said the tunnels constitute violations of resolution 1701.In 2019 a UNIFIL report stated that “Hezbollah activists in civilian clothes used force to prevent UNIFIL troops free movement, with roadblocks, harassment, threats, and theft of electronic equipment.” In December 2022, an Irish UNIFIL peacekeeper was killed and several others wounded after their convoy was shot at whilst driving through the town of Al-Aqbiya in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah was blamed but denied involvement.During the summer 2023, there were several provocative incidents by Hezbollah on the border. In one case two men were filmed climbing the security barrier and stealing an IDF surveillance camera. In a separate incident several men with face masks dressed in military camouflage fatigues walked along the border with Israel.In July 2023, 20 Lebanese figures, presumably Hezbollah members crossed about 80 metres into Israeli territory and placed two tents south of the Blue Line (inside Israel) in the of the Mount Dov region. In September 2023 Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant visited New York and told the UN Secretary-General that “the potential for escalation on the northern border has risen in the wake of serious violations of sovereignty by Lebanon. Iran is pushing Hezbollah to act.” At the time Gallant presented intelligence including maps and photographs highlighting Hezbollah’s recently established lookouts and increased presence on the border and attempts to create friction with IDF forces.On October 8th 2023, a day after Hamas’s attacks on southern Israel, Hezbollah began to fire rockets, missiles and anti-tank weapons against both Israeli military and civilian targets. Prior to the IDF’s ground incursion earlier this month, Hezbollah fired over 9000 projectiles at Israel. The attacks since October 8th 2023 have so far resulted in the deaths of 30 civilians (among them 12 children) and 43 soldiers, as well as the internal displacement of over 60,000 civilians. IDF launches Operation Northern Arrows On October 1st 2024 the IDF launched a ground incursion targeting the Hezbollah infrastructure embedded close to the Israeli border, with the aim of allowing displaced Israeli residents of the north to safely return home. At that point UNIFIL were encouraged to leave their posts and retreat north for their own safety.In the first three weeks of the operation the IDF has uncovered and exposed the extent of Hezbollah force build-up of military infrastructure and hardware, some of which was found in close proximity to UNIFIL posts. According to IDF, Hezbollah had fired around 25 rockets and missiles in the last month close to UNIFIL sites. Since the ground operation has begun there have been two claims that Israel has violated UNIFIL’s mandate. In one incident an Israeli tank backed into the gates of a UNIFIL post. According to the IDF the incident took place as the tank, whilst under fire from Hezbollah, was evacuating injured soldiers. According to the IDF, they maintained lines of communication with UNIFIL throughout the incident, emphasising that at no point were UNIFIL personnel at risk. Speaking on October 14th Prime Minster Netanyahu addressed these allegations saying, “The charge that Israel deliberately attacked UNIFIL personnel is completely false. It’s exactly the opposite. Israel repeatedly asked UNIFIL to get out of harm’s way. It repeatedly asked them to temporarily leave the combat zone, which is right next to Israel’s border with Lebanon.”Prime Minister Netanyahu further emphasised, “Israel is not fighting UNIFIL. It’s not fighting the people of Lebanon. It is fighting Iran’s proxy Hezbollah, which uses Lebanese territory to attack Israel… Hezbollah uses UNIFIL facilities and positions as cover while it attacks Israeli cities and communities. These attacks have claimed the lives of many Israelis.” Conclusion Hezbollah began violating the Resolution 1701 shortly after the Second Lebanon War ended, particularly in its effort to rebuild its military infrastructure embedded within Shiite villages in southern Lebanon. Within a decade, the number of violations had increased by 800 per cent and by the end of 2017, Hezbollah had committed around 13,000 violations of the agreement. In 2007, there were 410 violations. By 2017, according to the IDF, there were 3669 of these violations. Around two thirds of those were cases of armed combatants spotted south of the Litani River. Over the same period, Israel has also come under criticism for violating resolution 1701 by conducting intelligence gathering aerial sorties over southern Lebanon. Israel has argued these overflights were necessary given Hezbollah’s force build-up and the lack of accountability by the Lebanese government and UNIFIL. Hezbollah is currently firing missiles toward Israel from areas under the jurisdiction of LAF personnel and UNIFIL forces, the very entities tasked with enforcing the ban on Hezbollah or any other armed group’s presence in southern Lebanon. In efforts to bring the fighting to a conclusion, Israel will be demanding the removal of Hezbollah presence in the south and more vigorous implementation of resolution 1701 to permanently keep Hezbollah away. |
October 15, 2024
A police officer was killed and another person injured in an apparent terror shooting attack near Yavne, south of Tel Aviv.
The IDF continues operational activity in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, striking over 230 terrorist targets, as Hezbollah attacks continue.
October 10, 2024
Attacks have intensified with Hezbollah firing around 220 rockets into northern Israel on Wednesday, with continued fire this morning.
Context: Despite the IDF offensive, Hezbollah is expanding its range and intensity of strikes against Israeli civilian communities .
Looking ahead: IDF Chief of staff has committed to, “continue to strike Hezbollah with intensity, without allowing them any respite or recovery.”
October 7, 2024
Israel has commemorated the one-year anniversary of Hamas’s October 7th attacks, as it continues military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, while coming under rocket and missile fire from Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
Context: Israel marked the anniversary of the October 7th attack in two separate national ceremonies last night.
Looking ahead: The head of IDF Northern Command has told local leaders of northern communities that they could begin to make plans for the return of their residents after the Succot holiday, at the end of the month. The prevailing assessment is that the communities in question are ones that are at a distance from the border and leaders of these communities will await government endorsement of endorse this plan.
September 17, 2024
What’s happened: Israel’s Security Cabinet has designated the return of internally displaced northern residents an official war goal as Gallant tells special US envoy only “military” action can allow them to return home.
Context: Since 8th October, Hezbollah has launched near daily attacks on northern Israel with drones, rockets, and anti-tank guided missiles.
Looking ahead: Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly intends to fire Defence Minister Gallant and replace him with former Likud ally and current Chair of the New Hope party, Gideon Saar.
September 13, 2024
What’s happened: The IDF has announced that the four Hamas battalions in Rafah have been operationally dismantled.
Context: The completion of operations in Rafah seems to mark the end of Phase 2 of the war, with the conquering of the command and control capabilities of the Hamas battalions that operated in Gaza a year ago.
Looking ahead: Israeli media reports are suggesting that IDF Chief of Staff Halevi is making preparations to resign at the end of the year.
September 11, 2024
What’s happened: Israel’s Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, has told reporters that Hamas no longer exists as an organised military force after eleven months of combat operations in the Gaza Strip.
Context: The release of the footage from the tunnels in Rafah has sharply brought home to both the political leadership and the wider Israeli public the terrible conditions under which the hostages still alive are being held – airless, dark and humid tunnels too low to even stand up in.
Looking ahead: Israeli security officials are increasingly turning their attention towards Hezbollah.
September 9, 2024
Allenby Bridge attack: Three Israeli civilians working at the Allenby Bridge border crossing were killed in a terrorist shooting attack on Sunday morning.
The north: Syrian media are reporting that Israel attacked several targets inside Syria overnight.
Context: Over the weekend Israel marked 11 months since the October 7th attack and the subsequent attacks from other areas.
Looking ahead: While Israeli authorities said that the border crossing would remain closed, the Jordanian government announced that it would re-open to civilian traffic today, although trucks are not being allowed to use the crossing at this point.
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