What’s happened: Later today the Israeli cabinet will discuss a major new offensive operation in Gaza that could see the entire Strip conquered by Israeli forces. The decision comes on the heels of unusually public disagreements between the military and the civilian leadership and deep divisions in public opinion.

• Leaks to Israeli media indicate that the Cabinet will decide between two general directions. The first is a full conquest and ground troops occupation of the coastal enclave, while the second could be besieging its central area around Gaza City without a broader occupation.
• The deliberations around the new offensive have included an unprecedentedly public fight between civilian and military leaders, with leaks from the Government and the IDF creating a public impression that IDF Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir strongly opposes a complete occupation of the Strip. Media outlets normally supportive of the Prime Minister have been strongly critical of Zamir, whose appointment only a few months ago was broadly supported by the Prime Minister’s supporters following the resignation of the previous Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi, who had been blamed by the PM’s circle for failures on October 7th.
• Zamir himself has not made any public statement on the deliberations and has denied being behind leaks critical of the Government’s plans. Writing in Israel Hayom, military affairs correspondent noted the importance — and limitations — of the doubts attributed to Zamir: “The chief of staff is not a bureaucrat. He is a military officer. It is his responsibility to give his professional opinion and to fight for it. He  has a responsibility to protect the men and women who serve under him, as well a responsibility to uphold morality and ethics. If he thinks hostages will be killed—he has to say so. If he thinks a proposed course of action will cost the lives of many soldiers, he has to say so. If he believes many innocent Palestinians will be killed, he has to say so. If he thinks this decision will result in IDF soldiers being hunted down everywhere on earth, he has to say so. If he thinks a certain decision might lead to an arms embargo against Israel that would endanger the IDF’s ability to operate in future, he has to say so. If he thinks there is real danger that standing army and reservist troops might buckle under the strain, he has to say so. If he thinks that [imposing a] military regime [on Gaza] would create a burden on the IDF that is beyond the military’s ability to bear, he has to say so.”
• The Prime Minster briefed Opposition Leader Lapid and the military options under consideration. Following their meeting, Lapid said, “I told Netanyahu, conquering Gaza is a very bad idea. You don’t begin a move like that unless the majority of the public is behind you, but the Israeli people doesn’t want this war. We are going to pay very high prices for it.”
• Over 300 trucks of aid entered Gaza yesterday, keeping up with the pace of recent days. Hundreds are still queuing for UN pickup. Three tankers of fuel for the operation of essential humanitarian systems entered as well. Additionally, 110 pallets of aid were airdropped with the involvement of the UAE, Egypt, Jordan, Germany, Canada and Belgium.

Context: During the January-March 2025 ceasefire, Israel withdrew from nearly all of the Gaza Strip except for a small buffer zone along the border and a corridor by the Rafah crossing. As of now, Israeli forces occupy roughly 75% of the Strip.

• The remaining 25% is the centre of the Strip and includes areas that the IDF has not yet operated in during the war. It is believed that the hostages are being held there. Most Gazan civilians are there too. It is known to be intensively mined and booby-trapped.
• The first option being considered by the Cabinet tonight is for a full occupation of the Strip, including the remaining 25% in the centre. Such an operation is expected to take six months. It would begin with evacuation notices to the civilians inside the central camps and Gaza City and the preparation of an emergency civilian infrastructure, including field hospitals and displaced persons camps. The operation would begin with a conquest of Gaza City and later move to the UNRWA camps around Deir al-Balah, where most of the remaining hostages are believed to be held.
• Maariv reports that the IDF believes that in such an operation, the IDF would sustain dozens of casualties and that many, and possibly all, of the living Israeli hostages would be killed by their captors.
• In parallel, the US is expected to finance the expansion, and possibly even take over the distribution of humanitarian aid.  This could include expanding facilities of the GHF from four today to 16 in the coming months.
• The second option being considered would not include a full occupation of the remaining territory, but rather an encirclement of key Hamas sites and a siege. This option, reportedly preferred by the IDF, seeks to ensure the safety of the hostages during any offensive and avoid a repeat of the incident one year ago where six hostages were murdered by their captors when IDF forces unknowingly approached the tunnel where they were being held. This operation too would likely come with heavy losses to the IDF and a great risk to the hostages.
• The renewed interest in a military offensive began in the last two weeks following the breakdown of ceasefire talks at the end of July. For weeks until then, Israel and Hamas negotiated the details of the so-called Witkoff initiative, which would have seen a 60-day ceasefire during which half of the twenty living hostages would have been released in exchange for thousands of Palestinians prisoners and detainees held by Israel, most for terrorism offences. Hamas scuttled the talks abruptly in late July amidst a surge in international criticism of Israel, and both Israeli and American officials have concluded that it is not presently interested in any deal that would release hostages.
• Speaking at the UN on Wednesday Foreign Minister Saar said recent pressure on Israel during the sensitive days in the negotiations, “directly contributed to the assassination of the chances to reach a hostage deal and ceasefire. They prolonged the war.”
• Also shaping Israeli assessments are the perceived successes and failures of the offensive operation Israel has been conducting in the Strip since May. Hamas’ fighting capabilities have been severely degraded, but it has managed to turn the suffering of its civilians, as well as that of the Israeli hostages it holds, into net political gains. Writing in Maariv, Avi Ashkenazi reports that “military officials said that the IDF had racked up many achievements in the fighting in Gaza in the past 22 months. First among them, Hamas no longer constitutes a terrorist army. It is a group of terrorist squads that are now fighting a guerilla war without a central command, without supply lines and without ordnance. Furthermore, the IDF has surrounded Hamas’s troops in the refugee camps and in Gaza City, it has damaged Hamas underground network and has destroyed large parts of the tunnels that connected the network. The result has been that Hamas terrorists who wished to relocate were forced do so above ground.”

Looking ahead: The cabinet will meet tonight to discuss the two plans. A final decision may not be reached until early next week. A breakthrough in efforts to secure a hostage release would suspend progress toward a broad Israeli military offensive, but as of now, there are no indications of any such development. 

New BICOM research: On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched an attack on Israel. It was unprecedented in its scale, scope and brutality:

• 1,189 people were killed, including 815 civilians,
• 7,500 we wounded,
• 251 men, women and children were abducted, joining two living civilians and two dead soldiers already held by Hamas for over a decade.

The wounds — physical, emotional, and collective — remain open.

To date, 205 people have been rescued or released from Hamas captivity. 148 of the hostages returned alive, and 57 were deceased.

This BICOM’s report is a collection of testimonies of freed hostages giving a personal account of their experience in captivity.

What’s happened: Israel is reeling with anger and disgust at the latest brutal propaganda videos released by Hamas over the weekend.

• Hamas released two videos featuring 24 year old hostage Evyatar David. The first video did not include any statements, but his physical condition, severely emaciated, appeared grim with his bones jutting out of his body.
• The second video, showed David digging his own grave on orders from his captors. “I don’t eat. There’s barely any water,” said David, which he said was recorded on July 27. “This tin is for two days so that I don’t die,” he said, showing a small tin of food to the camera.
• In a script presumably dictated by his captors he says, “I have no idea whether there’s going to be food, I haven’t the faintest idea. I haven’t eaten in I don’t know how many days in a row, and I’ve been here in very-very bad shape for a very long time already.”
• In a third video, Palestinian Islamic Jihad released footage of the 21-year-old hostage, Rom Braslavski, who appeared to be gaunt and wept in the recording. Rom said, “Just give us food, if not for the Gaza Strip, then for the hostages.”
• The videos followed the visit of US envoy Witkoff who toured Gaza on Friday to personally witness the aid delivery system and later met with hostage families and consultations with senior Israeli officials. It now appears that the “Witkoff outline” is no longer on the table. Witkoff told the families they would now work on a comprehensive deal in which all of the hostages are to be released and the war ended. 
• In Beit Hanoun, in northern Gaza, the last of the Hamas fighters surrendered to troops from the Givati Brigade.
• Following questioning, the terrorists gave information about munitions warehouses adjacent to the tunnel shaft where they exited, leading troops to the warehouses. Large quantities of arms and materiel were found, including vests, rifle magazines, rifles, grenades and more. Supplies for an extended stay underground were also found in the tunnel, including food, water and hygiene supplies.
• Also over the weekend, the IDF demolished the main tunnel linking Beit Hanoun with Jabalya, Beit Lahiya and the northern reaches of Gaza City. It is estimated that dozens of Hamas terrorists were trapped in the tunnel.
• The military also said more than 130 targets were attacked around Gaza over the weekend.
• The IDF also said it had killed the terrorist Salah al-Din Za’ara, who served as the deputy commander of the Hamas Al-Furqan Battalion.
• In southern Gaza, forces killed terrorists and destroying terrorist infrastructure, including underground and buildings where terrorists operated and weapons were stored.
• Amid the ongoing fighting in Gaza, the Houthis continued to fire ballistic missiles at Israel. Sirens sounded on Friday evening in and around Jerusalem, and the Dead Sea area after a missile was fired from Yemen. The missile was intercepted by the Arrow 3 system. On Sunday the IDF intercepted a drone close to the Israeli – Egyptian border that was also launched from Yemen.

Context: Although hostage negotiations have not formally broken down, the sense in Israel is that there is currently no deal on the horizon, after Hamas hardened their negotiating positions coinciding with the British government and others increasing their pressure on Israel.          

• It is now understood that Prime Minister Netanyahu is working with President Trump and his team to draft a comprehensive new proposal that includes a deal to release all the remaining hostages and presumably end the war.
• The new proposal reportedly includes demands for the release of all remaining hostages in a single group and for Hamas to disarm. On the day after in Gaza, a US-led international administration is to be established in the Gaza Strip.
• If Hamas do not agree the US is expected to give Israel a free hand to operate militarily in the Gaza Strip.
• The horrific video footage of Evyatar David and Rom Braslavski is seen as proof that Hamas is deliberately starving the hostages in order to ratchet up pressure on Israel.   
• Israel now believes the dire humanitarian situation in the Strip actually helps Hamas, and has allowed a surge in the flow of humanitarian aid.
• According to the latest data from COGAT, in the past week over 23,000 tons of humanitarian entered Gaza and 1,200 trucks were successfully collected by the UN and international organisations.
• In addition, hundreds of pallets of humanitarian supplies were airdropped by international partners to help address urgent needs on the ground. In cooperation with Israel, the UAE, Jordan, Egypt, France, Germany, and Belgium facilitated 136 aid packages, containing food airdropped into Gaza.
• Addressing Hamas’s campaign of starvation, IDF Chief of Staff Zamir, said “The current campaign of false accusations of intentional starvation is a deliberate, timed, and deceitful attempt to accuse the IDF, a moral army, of war crimes. The ones responsible for the killing and suffering of the residents in the Gaza Strip is Hamas. IDF soldiers and commanders act with integrity and morality, in accordance with the IDF’s values and international law.”
• Separately, a group of countries including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Qatar presented a document to the UN demanding that Hamas be disarmed and excluded from future governance of the Gaza Strip. The document represents welcome pressure now being applied on Hamas, including a condemnation of the attack on Israeli civilians on October 7. It also endorses the Palestinian Authority (PA) to take over future responsibility for security and civilian affairs.
• Relating to the British Government’s announced on unilaterally recognising the State of Palestine, Malcolm Shaw KC presented a series of arguments against unilateral recognition He argued:
  • Palestine doesn’t meet key Montevideo Convention standards, specifically lacking effective governance and a defined territory, due to internal division between PA and Hamas, and lack of territorial control.
  • Widespread recognition by states is politically significant but legally insufficient without UN Security Council approval or clear factual statehood.
  • Palestinians have the right to self-determination, but that alone doesn’t override legal thresholds for statehood.
  • Allowing declarations of statehood outside accepted criteria and procedures, even under self-determination undermines international legal order.

Looking ahead: The change to now focus on a comprehensive ceasefire plan – rather than a partial deal – will take time, as it requires resolving several difficult issues. These include the ratio and identity of Palestinian terrorists in Israeli jails to be released, the nature and geographical redeployment of the IDF, and the demilitarisation of the Strip. 

• The latter is understood to be part of a growing consensus that Hamas must agree to stop repairing / digging new tunnels, to stop the manufacture of missiles and explosives and to stop smuggling weapons under the Philadelphi Corridor from Egypt.      
• In light of the failure of the talks, the inner security cabinet will meet later this week to discuss next steps. The IDF has reduced its troop deployment and has long supported a deal. But if the government decides to continue fighting, Chief of Staff Zamir has recommended increasing operations and raids in parts of the Strip where the IDF has not operated so far, such as Gaza City and the refugee camps in the central Gaza Strip. These raids will be evaluated to avoid harming the remaining hostages.
• Defence officials anticipate that Hamas will release more videos of the hostages in captivity in an effort to ratchet up pressure on Israel.

What happened: Yesterday was the first day of Israel’s “humanitarian pause” in Gaza, in which military activity ceases from 10:00am to 8:00pm in designated areas where most civilians are located.

• The security cabinet met last night to discuss Israel’s options as the current military offensive, Operation Gideon’s Chariot, winds down without a ceasefire deal in place.
• Negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage release continued in both Doha and Sardinia, with more revelations in media reports about the breakdown in talks last week, largely following new demands from Hamas that surprised and frustrated the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.
• Egyptian and Jordanian aid trucks entered Gaza, and the IDF began airdropping aid into the Gaza Strip as well. According to COGAT:
  • Over 200 trucks were collected and distributed yesterday by the UN and international organisations with additional 260 trucks in Gaza awaiting collection and distribution, along with hundreds of others still queued for UN pickup.
  • Four tankers of UN fuel entered for the operation of essential humanitarian systems.
  • 20 pallets of aid were airdropped in cooperation with the UAE and Jordan.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu conceded that the humanitarian situation in Gaza was “difficult,” but accused Hamas of “stealing aid… many times by shooting Palestinians.”
• The US too sharpened its tone on the humanitarian situation while still laying the blame at Hamas’ doorstep. In an interview yesterday, State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce said, “People have got to get fed, but in the meantime Hamas refuses to put down its weapons, refuses to release the hostages, which could stop all of this in a moment. But that won’t stop us from easing the pain.” 
• Yesterday, during their meeting in Scotland, Donald Trump and Keir Starmer discussed the situation in Gaza:
  • While Starmer recognised the need to free the hostages, he marked the situation on the ground in Gaza as “absolutely intolerable” as Trump emphasised that there’s “a lot of starving people”.
  • Starmer called for stepping up the humanitarian efforts in Gaza saying “There needs to be much more [aid], we need to galvanise other countries in support of getting that aid in. And yes that does involve putting pressure on Israel, because this is a humanitarian catastrophe now.”
  • Trump later announced that he intends to work with European allies to “set up food centres” in Gaza.
  • On the issue of recognising Palestinian statehood – and the ongoing debate over whether Starmer will follow Macron’s lead – Donald Trump indicated that he doesn’t mind if the UK recognises a Palestinian state. The recognition was rejected by the Leader of the Opposition, Kemi Badenoch, on Sunday.
• A three-day rescheduled UN confab sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia – and co-chaired by 16 other countries and delegations, including the United Kingdom – opened yesterday.  The French Foreign Minister said “Only a political, two-state solution will help respond to the legitimate aspirations of Israelis and Palestinians to live in peace and security,” while Saudi foreign minister, said that the kingdom was seeking World Bank approval to transfer $300m to Gaza and the West Bank to counter the dire humanitarian crisis in the territories. 
• The US State Department said the conference was “unproductive and ill-timed” adding that it was “a publicity stunt that comes in the middle of delicate diplomatic efforts to end the conflict.” “Far from promoting peace, the conference will prolong the war, embolden Hamas, and reward its obstruction and undermine real-world efforts to achieve peace.”

Context: With the IDF in control of at least two thirds of the territory, Israeli decision makers are due to find themselves at a critical juncture in the coming days with the current military offensive reaching its natural endpoint. 

• Talks for an agreement that would have led to a ceasefire and a hostage release – which seemed to be reaching an agreement last week – fell apart with the publication of the (mostly European) Foreign Ministers’ Statement and the media furore over starvation in Gaza which put Hamas in a position where it could receive for free what it would have had to pay for in released hostages beforehand. 
• Moreover, the Prime Minister and his Government have three months of relative quiet as a parliamentary recess means the coalition can lumber on without the threat of early elections being called.
• Channel 12 news reported that Israel’s cabinet is considering fully occupying Gaza, alongside a tightened siege on certain areas within the Strip. If carried out, the plan would mean that IDF troops would operate in areas where hostages are believed to be held – a move largely avoided by Israel until now. 
• Perched around Gaza City, and the camps of the central Strip — Nuseirat, al-Bureij and Deir al-Balah — the IDF awaits orders from the Government. An offensive into the camps, largely untouched since the war began, risks losing the hostages forever. The belief that Israel could recover the hostages alive via an agreement with had stayed Israel’s hand until now. 
• Gaza City was also avoided in the current ground offensive. A decision to move in would need to be carefully considered. Yedioth Ahronot’s military affairs correspondent Yossi Yehoshua writes about Gaza City, “Roughly a million civilians are currently concentrated in Gaza City alone. The Gaza City Brigade, Hamas’ last remaining brigade, has formed under their protection. To where can the IDF evacuate the civilians, when most of the Strip has been destroyed and does not allow for further absorption? How can effective fighting be conducted under such conditions? And the biggest question of all: how do you fight in an area where there might be hostages?”
• While US officials, especially President Trump, have expressed extreme scepticism about the prospect of reaching a hostage deal with Hamas, Israeli negotiators briefing local media anonymously continue to project optimism. A new channel of talks opened up in Sardinia, where the Qatari Prime Minister was vacationing earlier this summer.
• Ronen Bergman, also writing in Yedioth Ahronoth, published new revelations about the impasse in the talks earlier this month. The talks focused largely on the chronological steps of the ceasefire and the maps of the Israeli withdrawals. Only after these issues were resolved on July 23, did Hamas suddenly dramatically raise its demands regarding the ratio of prisoners to be released for each Israeli hostage. “That is when the mediating countries and Hamas clashed behind the scenes. The mediating countries accused Hamas of having played them in the negotiations, and Hamas accused them of not doing enough on behalf of the Palestinian people.” Though Bergman doesn’t draw the connection in his article, this was 48 hours after the Foreign Ministers’ Statement, agreed to by 28 countries including the UK, which threatened Israel with diplomatic consequences unless it adhered to a series of conditions that otherwise would have been included in the ceasefire deal.

Looking ahead: Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi are due to arrive in Florida today where they are reportedly set to meet US Envoy Steve Witkoff. Witkoff was due to arrive in Doha to wrap up talks on a ceasefire deal last week, but cancelled after new Hamas demands ended the talks.

• The EU is set to decide tomorrow whether to partially suspend Israel from the European Research Council’s prestigious Horizon Europe grant program. Israeli scientists report a dramatic drop in grants since the October 7 war began, even absent any official decision. The decision would need the backing of a qualified majority of member states.
• Sir Keir Starmer recalled his Cabinet from summer break to discuss the crisis in Gaza. Under mounting internal pressure to join Macron’s recognition of a Palestinian state, he is expected to unveil a comprehensive British proposal for resolving the crisis sometime in the coming days.

What’s happened: Over the weekend, Israel carried out airdrops of aid into the Gaza Strip, which it said were part of a “series of actions aimed at improving the humanitarian response in the Gaza Strip.”

• The airdrop included seven packages of aid containing flour, sugar, and canned food. The IDF stressed that it would “continue to work in order to improve the humanitarian response in the Gaza Strip, along with the international community, while refuting the false claims of deliberate starvation in Gaza.”
• Aircraft from the UAE and Jordan also carried out an airdrop, with the delivery of 28 packages of aid in the northern and southern Gaza Strip.
• Those airdrops were part of a series of measures announced in order to alleviate the humanitarian situation in Gaza. Other steps include:
  • A pause in military activity for humanitarian purposes. The IDF said the decision was coordinated with the UN and international organisations and will begin in areas where the IDF is not operating: Al-Mawasi, Deir al-Balah, and Gaza City, every day until further notice.
  • Designation of secure routes put in place permanently from 06:00 to 23:00 to “enable the safe passage of UN and humanitarian aid organisation convoys delivering and distributing food and medicine to the population across the Gaza Strip.”
• In related news, Egyptian media reported that trucks carrying humanitarian aid began entering the Gaza Strip yesterday through the Kerem Shalom crossing. This is the first time Egypt has delivered aid to Gaza since Israel took control over the Rafah Crossing in May 2024.
• United Nations aid chief Tom Fletcher said some movement restrictions appear to have been eased in Gaza, after Israel decided to“support a one-week scale-up of aid.” Fletcher said that initial reports indicate that more than 100 truckloads of aid were collected from crossings to be transported into Gaza. “This is progress, but vast amounts of aid are needed to stave off famine and a catastrophic health crisis.”
• The World Food Program said that it “welcomed the news that Israel is prepared to implement humanitarian pauses, and that designated humanitarian corridors will be created, to facilitate the safe movement of UN convoys delivering emergency food supplies and other aid to people in Gaza.” It added that WFP has enough food in – or on its way to – the region to feed the entire population of 2.1 million people for almost three months.”
• WFP warned though that the only way for humanitarian assistance to reach the entire civilian population in Gaza with critical food supplies in a consistent, predictable, orderly and safe manner is via a ceasefire.
• In a speech yesterday, PM Netanyahu hit back at claims that Israel was starving Palestinians. He said that “there is no policy of starvation in Gaza, and there is no starvation in Gaza.” Netanyahu argued that Israel had “enabled the amount required by international law” to enter Gaza and that the country enabled “humanitarian aid throughout the duration of the war…Otherwise, there would be no Gazans.” Netanyahu blamed Hamas for taking over the aid and “accusing Israel of not supplying it.”
• Discussing the new safe corridors, PM Netanyahu called on the UN to be more effective in collecting and delivering aid. “There are safe corridors, and the UN has no excuses left. Stop lying… Stop accusing Israel deliberately of this egregious falsehood,” he said.
• President Trump responded to a reporter’s question about images of starving children in Gaza were “terrible.” Trump added that, “They’re stealing the food,” he said, likely referring to Hamas.
• Foreign Secretary Lammy said that Israel’s announcement of humanitarian steps was “essential but long overdue,” and that access to aid must now be urgently accelerated over the coming hours and days. “This announcement alone cannot alleviate the needs of those desperately suffering in Gaza,” Lammy added. “We need a ceasefire that can end the war, for hostages to be released and aid to enter Gaza by land unhindered.”
• In a phone call with Netanyahu, German Chancellor Merz“ expressed his deep concern about the catastrophic humanitarian situation inGaza,” and called on Netanyahu “to do everything in his power to achieve an immediate ceasefire.”
• In other news, two IDF soldiers were killed over the weekend by an explosive device in southern Gaza. The soldiers were named as Cpt. Amir Saad, 22 from Yanuh-Jat and Sgt. Inon Nuriel Vana, 20, from Kiryat Tiv’on.
• The Foreign Ministry announced that the Israeli Navy took control of a flotilla making its way from Italy to Gaza. All passengers onboard the Handala were reported to be safe.

Context: Israel’s decisions to expand aid come in the context of increased global criticism about the humanitarian situation in Gaza, as well as discussions in European capitals about recognising a Palestinian state and potential sanctions on Israel.

• British PM Starmer is reportedly planning to recall his cabinet from their summer break to discuss the situation in Gaza. That move was reportedly decided after Starmer said on Friday the British government would only recognise a Palestinian state as part of a negotiated peace deal.
• The major challenge for Israel – and attempts to end the war – is that diplomatic pressure has converged with greater maximalist demands by Hamas – likely encouraged by accusations of famine in Gaza – over terms of a ceasefire.
• Arab diplomatic officials said over the weekend that talks over a ceasefire are ongoing despite the Israeli and American delegations returning home. They add that it will take more time until an agreement is reached due to the complexity of several issues at the heart of the talks.
• One reason negotiations were suspended was new Hamas demands for Israel to release Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the remains of deceased hostages, and also to release a larger number of Palestinian prisoners than previously agreed in return for ten living hostages. Hamas is now demanding the release of a higher number of the worst category of terrorists – those serving life sentences or lengthy prison sentences due to their involvement in the October 7 attack – in exchange for ten of the hostages.
• Relating to the breakdown in negotiations – and Hamas’ more maximalist demands – US President Trump said “Israel will have to make a decision” on Gaza, adding “I know what I would do, but I don’t think it’s appropriate to say it,” Trump said.
• At the same time there has been criticism in Israel over the government’s policy in Gaza. Writing in Maariv, Ben Caspit excoriates the government’s policy that has led to diplomatic isolation. “Israel is the only country in the world that can deliver huge quantities of humanitarian aid to its enemy in a time of war and still not receive any credit for doing that. To the contrary, it has not only spent hundreds of millions to pay for that, but has also been excoriated by the entire world and finds itself on the brink of sanctions. That’s what happens when you place the country’s national security in the hands of a group of incompetent wretches whose first most prominent trait is extremism and whose second most prominent trait is prattling.”
• People in the inner circles of far-right politicians Ben Gvir and Smotrich’s said they believed that Netanyahu announced the humanitarian pauses in fighting only after the Knesset had adjourned for its summer recess so as to neutralise their ability to pressure him during the next three months.    

Looking ahead: A Downing Street spokesperson says, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will press Donald Trump on ending “the unspeakable suffering” in Gaza when they meet today at the US president’s golf resort in Scotland. Starmer is expected to “welcome the president’s administration working with partners in Qatar and Egypt to bring about a ceasefire in Gaza.”

• “He will discuss further with him what more can be done to secure the ceasefire urgently, bring an end to the unspeakable suffering and starvation in Gaza and free the hostages who have been held so cruelly for so long,” the spokesperson added.

What’s happened: Hamas response causes Israel and American teams to leave Doha negotiations.

• Hamas is understood to have maintained a series of maximalist demands.
• An initial Hamas response earlier this week had been deemed so unreasonable that Qatari and Egyptian mediators refused to share them with the resident Israeli delegation. They reportedly included: the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation ceasing all aid distribution, a significantly narrower buffer zone between the Gaza and Israel border, the release of higher numbers of terrorists than had previously been expected, and Gazans being able to return to the Strip via the Rafah crossing.
• The ostensibly ‘softened’ Hamas response demanded – for the first time – the release of commandos from Hamas’s Nukhba force who participated in the 7th October 2023 attacks on southern Israel.
• The new Hamas demands prompted the US and Israeli delegations to withdraw from Doha and return home. Special Envoy Witkoff branded Hamas as “selfish” and suggested that the group “does not appear to be coordinated or acting in good faith”, specifically citing their “lack of desire to reach a ceasefire in Gaza” as a reason to recall the US negotiating delegation.
• Israeli officials have denied suggestions that this phase of negotiations has collapsed, and stated that while progress has been made gaps must still be closed before reaching the closing stage ahead of a potential deal.
• In related news, French President, Emmanuel Macron, has announced that France will recognise Palestinian statehood in September at the UN’s General Assembly making it the first G7 country to do so.
• In a post shared on X, Macron said “The urgent need today is for the war in Gaza to end and for the civilian population to be rescued. Peace is possible. We need an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages, and massive humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza.”
• It follows a symbolic, non-binding Knesset resolution that recognised the West Bank is “an inseparable part of the Land of Israel.
• While praised by Arab leaders, the US and Israel have condemned Macron’s announcement. Secretary of State Rubio branded it as “reckless”, while Prime Minister Netanyahu wrote that “A Palestinian state in these conditions would be a launch pad to annihilate Israel – not to live in peace beside it. Let’s be clear: the Palestinians do not seek a state alongside Israel; they seek a state instead of Israel.”
• Hamas praised France’s decision, referring to it as a “positive step in the right direction”.
• Prime Minister Starmer has again come under pressure to immediately recognise Palestinian statehood, this time following a report to that effect published by the Foreign Affairs Select Committee.
• All six voting Labour MPs who sat on the committee endorsed the relevant sections of the record along with two Liberal Democrats. The two Conservative members, Aphra Brandreth and Sir John Whittingdale, took a slightly different approach arguing that the UK should only back the move as part of a wider two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict.
• Yesterday, Shabana Mahmood, the British Justice Secretary said that recognition would bring “multiple benefits” and “send a strong message to the Israeli government”. It is understood that several Cabinet ministers are now urging the Prime Minister to action and immediately recognise Palestinian statehood amongst increasing anger against Israel, especially over Gaza’s humanitarian situation. 
• Also yesterday, Starmer issued an unusually strong statement condemning the “unspeakable and indefensible” humanitarian conditions in Gaza which he branded as a “catastrophe” that had “reached new depths”.

Context: Hamas’ demands in Doha followed optimism of a breakthrough and an Israeli compromise on withdrawing troops from the Morag Corridor bisecting Rafah and Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip.

• Israel believes that the diplomatic international pressure on Israel – particularly over the humanitarian situation in Gaza – makes Hamas less likely to agree to a ceasefire arrangement.
• Opposition MK Benny Gantz pointed out that “International pressure on Israel, particularly by distorted claims of purposeful starvation or ‘genocide,’ is perceived, intentionally orchestrated, and peddled by Hamas as negotiation leverage. It significantly hampers the prospects of a ceasefire deal that would bring the hostages home & restore stability to Gaza. The world must stand united in demanding maximum pressure on the terrorists that initiated this war on Oct. 7. Misplaced pressure on Israel rather than Hamas only serves to embolden the group, and undermine efforts to end the conflict in Gaza.”
• Israel has blamed the UN for failing to cooperate effectively on aid provision within the Strip, and maintains that Hamas is confecting and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis to leverage famine claims during ceasefire negotiations.
• While the Gaza Humanitarian Fund has distributed an excess of 80 million meals since May, its existence and operations directly contradict Hamas’s interests, namely allowing starvation to take root and further delegitimising Israel. Israel claims that Hamas has continuously attacked GHF aid distribution centres and workers, yesterday launching a rocket at one of its sites which fell short in the Morag Corridor in the southern Gaza Strip.
• Hamas’s positive response to Macron’s announcement underscores the risks of recognising Palestinian statehood in a manner which effectively rewards Hamas and diminishes its incentives for agreeing to a ceasefire and releasing Israeli hostages.
• Unilateral recognition is seen by Israel as undercutting the prospect of future direct negotiations. It front loads the benefits and removes incentives for the Palestinians to one day return to the diplomatic track. It rewards their intransigence, raising expectations but changes nothing on the ground.

Looking ahead: PM Starmer is due to hold an “emergency call” on Gaza with France and Germany later today where they “will discuss what we can do urgently to stop the killing and get people the food they desperately need while pulling together all the steps necessary to build a lasting peace”.

• Special Envoy Witkoff, Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Dermer, and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani are also expected to meet in Sardinia to discuss ways to reach a ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas, despite last night’s setbacks.
• Yesterday, Israeli and Syrian ministers also met for the first time since 2000 in Paris with American mediation from Special Envoy and Ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack. These talks are understood to have focused on de-escalating tensions in southern Syria.