Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Updated October 21, 2024

Two killed in Kiryat Shmona as rocket attacks intensify

Attacks have intensified with Hezbollah firing around 220 rockets into northern Israel on Wednesday, with continued fire this morning.

In Kiryat Shmona, a couple in their mid-forties Revital Yehud and Dvir Sharvit, who had refused to be evacuated from their home, were killed by shrapnel while walking their dog.
Six people were wounded when 40 rockets hit Haifa and the nearby suburbs.
A building was damaged in Safed, and fires broke out in Hatzor Haglilit and the area surrounding the town.
Sirens sounded yesterday in Caesarea, Zichron Yaakov and other communities near the coast.
Six people were wounded in a terrorist stabbing attack in Hadera. Before being shot the assailant attacked people in four different locations across the city, wounding two in the first, a third in the second, two more in the third, and a sixth in the final location. He was later identified as Ahmad Jabarin, a 36-year-old Israeli citizen from Umm al-Fahm.
Two soldiers were killed, and two soldiers were wounded in the last two days. On Tuesday, Sgt. Noam Israel Abdu, was killed in a ground operation in the northern Gaza Strip. In the same operation, a soldier was severely injured. Another soldier was severely injured in southern Lebanon. This morning, Maj. (res) Ronny Gazinate, 36-years-old, was killed in combat in southern Lebanon.
The IDF continues its operational activity in southern Lebanon. Over the past day, IDF eliminated terrorists during close-quarter encounters and in aerial strikes, located and confiscated numerous weapons including anti-tank missiles. In addition, over 100 Hezbollah terror targets were destroyed.
Over the past day, the IAF struck approximately 185 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, and in parallel approximately 45 Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip, including terrorist cells, infrastructure sites, military structures, observation posts, launchers, and weapons storage facilities.
The IDF announced it had assassinated two Hezbollah operatives, Ahmad Mustafa Al-Hajj Ali and Mohammad Ali Hamdan, who intended to carry out terrorist attacks in northern communities. The pair were responsible for launching hundreds of rockets and anti-tank missile toward the Kiryat Shmona area.
Last night, IDF intercepted a drone over the Red Sea, which was making its way toward Israel.
In an undercover operation in the West Bank city of Nablus, Israeli forces opened fire on a car in Nablus, killing four terror suspects.

Context: Despite the IDF offensive, Hezbollah is expanding its range and intensity of strikes against Israeli civilian communities .

According to the IDF Hezbollah actually fired over 350 rockets on Wednesday, with approximately 220 crossing over into Israel. Israel’s anti-missiles defences were able to intercept most of them, but the Hezbollah tactic is to try and overwhelm the system.
Wednesday’s attack on Kiryat Shmona was most sustained and heaviest barrage the city has faced since the war began.
In parallel the IDF appear satisfied with the progress they are making targeting Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. The IDF Chief of Staff struck a confident tone during the situational assessment yesterday saying, “Hezbollah is making efforts to conceal the significant damage we have inflicted…. They are experiencing command and control difficulties, leading to confusion at the decision-making level and challenges in their operational capabilities.”
The IDF are working off an orderly battle plan targeting hundreds of Hezbollah command centres, weapons storage facilities and military observation posts. In addition, whenever Hezbollah fires rockets the air force aims to destroy the launchers.
Along with the progress in southern Lebanon, the IDF again emphasised the importance of the attacking the Dahiya neighbourhood in Lebanon which they describe as, “a key terrorist stronghold for Hezbollah.” Adding, “this is where its decisions are made, and it manufactures and hides its strategic weapons – inside and below civilian buildings in Dahiya. Dahiya is not like the rest of Beirut.”
The latest messages from Hezbollah this week attests to their weakened condition and for first time in a year are no longer conditioning and connecting a ceasefire to the situation to Gaza.
At the same time reports are emerging of new approach led by the Mossad to try and reach an agreement to release the hostages. In a role reversal where before Hamas encouraged the Iranian proxies to join in attacking Israel and Hezbollah made any ceasefire conditional on the linkage. Now Israel is new reversing the equation and telling Iran if they want a ceasefire to save themselves and what’s left of Hezbollah they need to pressure Hamas to release the captives.
The three-way call yesterday between Prime Minister Netanyahu, US President Biden and Vice President Harris was their first call since the end of August.
Netanyahu’s insistence on the call as a perquisite for Gallant’s visit to the Pentagon was designed to ensure that Netanyahu remains personally engaged in the coordination with the US.
It is understood that the Biden administration has been working in recent days to moderate possible Israeli attacks and proposed a military-diplomatic “compensation package” instead.
The stabbing attack in Hadera is the third major terror attack in the last eight days, follows the attacks in Tel Aviv last Tuesday and Beer Sheva on Sunday. It was second attack committed by an Israeli-Arab citizen.
The mayor of Umm al-Fahm condemned the attack carried out by a resident of his city saying, “The fabric of common life must be preserved.”
There is heightened concern that in the immediate aftermath there is added motivation for copy-cat type attacks.

Looking ahead: IDF Chief of staff has committed to, “continue to strike Hezbollah with intensity, without allowing them any respite or recovery.”

The security cabinet is expected to meet this evening to discuss and approve the details of Israel’s response to Iran.
Defence Minister Gallant spoke about the anticipated response saying that, “Our attack will be lethal, precise and mainly surprising. They won’t understand what happened and how it happened; they’ll see the results.”
Part of the Israeli dilemma will be to calibrate a strike hard enough to end the cycle of attack and counter-attack.

October 7, 2024

One year on and Iranian proxies continue to attack Israel

Israel has commemorated the one-year anniversary of Hamas’s October 7^th attacks, as it continues military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, while coming under rocket and missile fire from Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.

Sirens sound this morning in Haifa, Acre and several surrounding towns and villages after a barrage of around 100 rockets were fired from Lebanon so far this morning.
Hezbollah launched 190 projectiles yesterday, including at civilian population centres in Tel Aviv and Haifa. Hezbollah claimed that it targeted the Glilot army base where the IDF’s 8200 signals intelligence unit is headquartered. The IDF says that five rockets were launched in the attack, some of which were intercepted and the rest struck open areas, causing no injuries or major damage.
Military operations against Hezbollah are continuing, with focus on southern Lebanon, and the Dahiya suburb of Beirut. A fourth army division has been deployed to southern Lebanon with the IDF stating it is conducting “limited, localised and targeted operations” in the area.
The IDF announced that it killed the head of Hezbollah’s logistical headquarters, Suhail Hussein Husseini in an airstrike on Beirut. Husseini, a member of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council, participated in weapon transfers between Hezbollah and Iran and was responsible for distributing the advanced weaponry among Hezbollah’s units. Further airstrikes were also conducted on Hezbollah targets in the more northern Beqaa Valley.
The Iranian foreign minister warned Israel against retaliating for its attack against Israel last week adding that any attack on Iran’s infrastructure would be met with a stronger response.
The IDF successfully intercepted a surface to surface ballistic missile fired at central Israel from Yemen. Sirens sounded across the centre of the country, but no injuries or damage was reported.
The Houthis claimed responsibility for this attack, saying that two missiles were fired at Israel as well as numerous drones targeting Eilat and Jaffa.
One Israeli soldier has been killed in the IDF’s latest operations in the northern Gaza Strip with another soldier suffering serious injuries in the same incident. His death marks the IDF’s 350^th fatality since launching the ground operation last October.
The IDF said that 20 Hamas operatives were killed in the past day during a new IDF operation in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya.
Hamas also targeted central Israel with a barrage of rocket fire while October 7^th commemorations took place. While mostly intercepted, shrapnel falling caused some damage to a property in Kfar Chabad where it also lightly wounded two women.
After weeks of silence, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has reestablished contact with hostage-ceasefire deal mediators in Qatar while former Hamas politburo chief, Khaled Mashaal told Reuters that the group would rise “like a Phoenix”, and that it continues to recruit fighters and manufacture weapons.

Context: Israel marked the anniversary of the October 7^th attack in two separate national ceremonies last night.

The first was held in Hayarkon Park in Tel Aviv, crowd-funded and organised by some of the victims’ families. It was originally expected to host 40,000 spectators, but due to the expanded range of recent rocket attacks, the capacity was reduced to fewer than 2,000.
The second, formal government-organised commemoration was held in an amphitheatre in Ofakim and pre-recorded several days ago. It was broadcast immediately after the first ceremony ended.
Both ceremonies included survivors’ testimony and musical accompaniment as well as reflecting a full range of Israeli society with messages of solidarity and unity. However the fact that two ceremonies were deemed necessary speaks largely to the continued anger and resentment felt my many over the government’s failure to take full responsibility into the disaster and its foot dragging in launching a state commission of enquiry into the disaster.
There is growing concern for the 101 hostages in Gaza. The latest intelligence assessment made public includes:
- Most of the hostages are being held in tunnels, likely narrow passageways with very little food, without electricity, without showers and without bathrooms, and with almost no air.
- The terrorist captors holding them have become more violent toward the hostages the more the IDF intensified its attacks. One official reportedly told the families that the terrorists’ finger on the trigger had become lighter. He said that the terrorists had been given a direct order to execute hostages if they felt in danger or if they heard soldiers approaching.
- The assessment is that most have lost 20% of their weight and some are most likely are suffering from severe medical issues that have not been treated.
- In such difficult conditions the hostages will not be able to survive for an extended period of time.
Despite the resumption of communication with Sinwar and the pressure from the families to reach a deal, the chances are not considered to be high. This is due to Sinwar’s continued intransigence and Israel’s formal demand to retain its position on the Philadelphi Corridor.
There had been efforts to reinvigorate a plan that would see all of the hostages released and allow Sinwar and the remaining Hamas leadership safe passage out of Gaza.
It remains unclear how much the US administration can invest in this process as the election draws nearer.
In parallel Israel is looking to increase the Humanitarian Aid into Gaza. The estimated cost is $5.4 billion (£4.12bn) per year for food alone. There are also suggestions that the Israeli Government is pushing to have IDF take over the distribution of all aid to Gaza. The IDF would take responsibility for every stage of the process – purchasing the aid, transporting it, securing it and distributing it to Gaza’s residents.
In the UK, Prime Minister Starmer made a statement to the House of Commons yesterday paying tribute to the victims of October 7th, including 15 British citizens who were slain, and another victim who has since died in captivity. He also talked about the Palestinians death toll, and the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon.
The Prime Minister said he supports Israel’s right to defend herself against Iran’s aggression in line with international law.

Looking ahead: The head of IDF Northern Command has told local leaders of northern communities that they could begin to make plans for the return of their residents after the Succot holiday, at the end of the month. The prevailing assessment is that the communities in question are ones that are at a distance from the border and leaders of these communities will await government endorsement of endorse this plan.

Consultations between Israel and the US continue over a response to Iran for firing 181 ballistic missiles at Israel last week. There are a number of attack options: from military installations to symbols of government, energy infrastructure and the Iranian nuclear programme.
The Israeli government has declared that going forward an additional – ‘Iron Sword War Memorial Day’ will be marked every year on October 7th.

September 17, 2024

Gallant: only ‘military’ action can bring displaced northern Israelis home

What’s happened: Israel’s Security Cabinet has designated the return of internally displaced northern residents an official war goal as Gallant tells special US envoy only “military” action can allow them to return home.

The Prime Minister’s Office has released a statement confirming that the Security Cabinet has updated its war goals for Operation Swords of Iron to include a fourth objective: “The safe return of the residents of the north to their homes”.
Thus far, Israel’s stated war aims have been to eliminate Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, return all hostages, and ensure that the Gaza Strip no longer poses a threat to Israel. This statement marks their first delineation of a strategic goal in the northern theatre.
This announcement comes following a meeting between Israeli Defence Minister Gallant and US Envoy Hochstein. While the Biden Administration and Hochstein have consistently advocated for a diplomatic solution to de-escalate tensions with Hezbollah, Gallant confirmed to Hochstein that time had run out for negotiations and that a military operation was the only remaining option.
Prime Minister Netanyahu echoed this view in a subsequent meeting with Hochstein making it very clear that “that it will not be possible to return our residents without a fundamental change in the security situation in the north”.

Context: Since 8th October, Hezbollah has launched near daily attacks on northern Israel with drones, rockets, and anti-tank guided missiles.

These attacks have killed 26 civilians, 20 soldiers, and forced the displacement of 80,000 residents living living in 28 evacuated localities and the city of Kiryat Shmona close to the Lebanese border.
Data from mid-May showed that approximately 930 homes within a 9 kilometre range from the border have been damaged. Israel’s Nature and Parks Authority estimates that approximately 140,000 dunams have been damaged by fires from Hezbollah missiles since the beginning of 2024.
The IDF has sought to downgrade Hezbollah’s military capacity and its rocket and missile-firing capabilities. In this context, it has carried out airstrikes along the Iraqi-Syrian border and the Syrian-Lebanese border to destroy Hezbollah air defence systems. However, while Israel has pushed most of Hezbollah’s special operations forces away from the border, they have ultimately failed to prevent it from continuing to fire on Israel.
With little to no sign of these attacks abating, the prospect of an Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon is becoming increasingly likely. It has also been reported that the IDF is considering establishing and occupying a buffer zone in southern Lebanon.
In November 2023, Hezbollah unilaterally honoured a brief ceasefire agreed between Israel and Hamas and subsequently indicated that it would do so again if another deal was reached.
In February, France submitted a proposal to Lebanon to secure a ceasefire and resolve Lebanon’s border disputes with Israel. The proposal would see Hezbollah withdraw roughly ten kilometres from the Israeli border (less than it is commanded to do by UN Resolution 1701), and to dismantle its military infrastructure within that zone. Some 15,000 Lebanese army troops would be deployed in the area to ensure future compliance with the buffer zone. In response, Hezbollah said it would not comment until a ceasefire had been achieved in Gaza.
However, with an Israel-Hamas ceasefire becoming ever more elusive, so too is the prospect of a de-escalation with Hezbollah despite France and the US’s efforts to encourage a diplomatic solution.

Looking ahead: Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly intends to fire Defence Minister Gallant and replace him with former Likud ally and current Chair of the New Hope party, Gideon Saar.

Rumours of Gallant’s impending dismissal have circulated for months. While Saar initially rejected rumours he would consider joining the Netanyahu government – he has campaigned against Netanyahu since forming his own right wing party in December 2020 – he is now thought to be open to joining the coalition and being appointed Defence Minister.
Gallant and Netanyahu’s relationship has been tense since March 2023 when Gallant urged a slow down of the government’s judicial reform and Netanyahu fired him (and intense public pressure led to Netanyahu backtracking).
More recent differences between the two men have included opposing a bill aimed at enlisting ultra-Orthodox men, the necessity of a ceasefire deal with Hamas, and the importance of the Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border

September 13, 2024

IDF declares Hamas military defeated in Rafah

What’s happened: The IDF has announced that the four Hamas battalions in Rafah have been operationally dismantled.

Over the last few months more than 2,000 terrorists have been killed. The IDF have destroyed approximately 13 km of underground tunnel, constituting 80% of the smuggling routes underneath the Philadelphi Corridor on the Egyptian border.
Combat engineers are expected to continue their work to find and destroy any remaining tunnels.
In the north, Hezbollah have continued to fires rockets into northern Israel. Last night around 20 rockets were fired toward Safed. No injuries have been reported, but the fire service worked through the night extinguishing flames.
Sirens were again sounded across areas in northern Israel in close proximity to the border with Lebanon, as Israeli Air Force jets carried out counter strikes on Hezbollah military sites southern Lebanon.
According to Syrian opposition sources, more details have emerged of the alleged Israeli strike on the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facility in the Masyaf area in Syria earlier this week.
According to their report the attack consisted of three phases:
- Israeli fighter jets struck all the approach roads preventing access to the site. According to eye witnesses this also included striking vehicles in the vicinity that tried to reach the facility.
- Israeli commandos dropped from their helicopter and entered the facility which Israel suspected was used by the IRGC to develop advanced weapons to Hezbollah. According to the report, the IDF commandos were on the ground for an hour and collected documents and other intelligence material
- Once the troops left, the site was destroyed.
There were further suggestions that Iranian personnel were also captured, but the Iranians have denied this. The Syrian government has denied the attack took place and Israeli officials have remained silent.
Israel has targeted Iranian assets in Syria hundreds of times over the last few years, but an operation of this type, involving Israeli troops on the ground, if true, would be represent a significant and unique accomplishment.

Context: The completion of operations in Rafah seems to mark the end of Phase 2 of the war, with the conquering of the command and control capabilities of the Hamas battalions that operated in Gaza a year ago.

Over the last few months the army had already begun transitioning to Phase 3, which is characterised by smaller targeted counter-insurgency operations (across the Strip) while forces hold the two key corridors – Netzarim that bisects the strip in the centre, and Philadelphi in the south.
The ground operation in Rafah lasted around four months. It was considered extremely sensitive and caused friction with Israel’s allies over the concern for the civilian population, which had swelled to 1.4 million on due to Gazans fleeing from other areas of Gaza.
However ahead of the operation the IDF cleared a humanitarian corridor north to Khan Yunis and the al-Mawasi safe zone.
Israel had always cited the importance of taking over Rafah as it functioned as the main smuggling route for Hamas over many years and significantly enhanced their ability to import weapons and explosives into the Strip, largely from Iran.
Rafah was also thought to be the hiding place of Hamas’s remaining leadership including Yahya Sinwar. Despite the IDF successfully targeting numerous senior Hamas figures, Sinwar and his brother Mohammad remain at large.
The third motivation of the Rafah operation was to free hostages. Here there was limited success, with two successful operations that saw the release of four hostages alive.
Two weeks ago the IDF recovered the bodies of six hostages, who were tragically assassinated days earlier, having survived in horrific conditions in a dark, humid tunnel, unable to stand up straight for over 10 months.
The death of the six hostages and the exposure of the conditions in which they were held has led to further intensify the public protests to reach a deal for the release of the remaining 101 hostages.

Looking ahead: Israeli media reports are suggesting that IDF Chief of Staff Halevi is making preparations to resign at the end of the year.

The end of Rafah operation adds further speculation as to whether the IDF will now pivot attention into a more offensive posture in the north.
Around 80,000 residents of the north remain internally displaced, with growing pressure on the government to reach a solution either diplomatic or military to allow them to return home in peace and security

September 11, 2024

Gallant: ‘Hamas no longer exists as organised military force’

What’s happened: Israel’s Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, has told reporters that Hamas no longer exists as an organised military force after eleven months of combat operations in the Gaza Strip.

Briefing the foreign press yesterday, Gallant said: “Hamas as a military formation no longer exists. Hamas is engaged in guerrilla warfare and we are still fighting Hamas terrorists and pursuing Hamas leadership.”
Gallant also said that conditions were “ripe” for the first phase of a ceasefire deal with Hamas which would result in a six week pause in fighting and partial withdrawal of Israeli troops in return for the release of female, young (under-18), elderly, or unwell hostages. Gallant however did not commit to permanently ending combat operations in Gaza.
These comments come as Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, confirmed that the US was working closely with Qatar and Egypt to “to bridge any remaining gaps” between Israel and Hamas, and that a new proposal framework would be put to both parties “very soon”.
Speaking at the same London press conference as Blinken, British Foreign Secretary, Lammy, confirmed “there can be no role for Hamas going forward”, seemingly aligning with Israel’s post-war governance vision for Gaza.
Bloomberg reports that Israel had offered Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar and his family, safe passage out of Gaza in return for the release of all hostages held by the group. It is unclear what Hamas’s response to this offer has been.
The offer was reportedly made by Gal Hirsch, the Israeli government’s special envoy for hostages. During a visit to the US, he told Bloomberg that Israel is “ready to provide safe passage to Sinwar, his family, whoever wants to join him…we want the hostages back…we want demilitarisation, de-radicalisation of course — a new system that will manage Gaza.”
Despite US optimism on the prospects for reaching a ceasefire agreement – Blinken last week claimed that over 90% of outstanding issues had been agreed on – significant obstacles remain, including the presence of Israeli troops in the Philadelphi Corridor.
While the US is blaming Hamas for the lack of progress on negotiations, Egypt and Qatar have reportedly taken the opposite view and considered issuing a joint statement condemning Israel “for the failure of the contacts”.
The IDF released footage of the tunnel where Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Eden Yerushalmi, Ori Danino, Alex Lobanov, Carmel Gat, and Almog Sarusi were held by Hamas before their executions. This tunnel was approximately 700 metres from where Farhan al-Qadi was rescued by Israeli special forces days earlier, and was described by the IDF as having one of its shafts opening “in a children’s room in a house”.
In the north, the IDF and Hezbollah continue to exchange fire as tensions on the Israeli-Lebanese border show little sign of abatement. 45 rockets were fired at Israel from Lebanon on Tuesday, targeting Mount Meron and the Western Galilee. Some were intercepted by air defence systems, and no injuries were reported. A number of drones were also launched at northern Israel later in the evening.
The IDF has responded with a series of counter-strikes on southern Lebanon targeting rocket launchers at at-Tiri and Mansouri, and a building used by Hezbollah in Rachaf.
Combat operations continue in Gaza Strip, with two Israeli soldiers killed in a helicopter crash in Rafah last night when it impacted the ground instead of touching down correctly.

Context: The release of the footage from the tunnels in Rafah has sharply brought home to both the political leadership and the wider Israeli public the terrible conditions under which the hostages still alive are being held – airless, dark and humid tunnels too low to even stand up in.

In a potential sign of growing public disillusionment with the Prime Minister’s policies, a conversation was leaked between Netanyahu and Ori Danino’s father, a Shas-voting Rabbi (who would generally be thought of as part of Netanyahu’s natural voting constituency). “Stop dealing with gathering Knesset seats” Danino tells the PM. “this all happened on your watch. My son was murdered in a tunnel that you built on your watch [by allowing funds and dual-use materials into Gaza]. Forgive me, forgive me. You’ve been in power for many years. Very many. The concrete and the dollars went in [to Gaza] on your watch.”
While the government traditionally claimed that military pressure helped bring about the release of hostages, the recent executions in the Rafah tunnel have led the IDF to alter operational plans.

Looking ahead: Israeli security officials are increasingly turning their attention towards Hezbollah.

In one of the strongest indications of a potential Israeli incursion into Lebanon, Defence Minister Gallant told troops that the IDF was shifting its focus from Gaza to the northern front, and that they should prepare for a ground offensive there.
Addressing troops, he said “The centre of gravity is moving to the north, we are nearing the completion of our missions in the south, but we have a task here that has not been carried out, and this mission is to change the security situation and return the residents to their homes”.
He also confirmed that “We are finishing training the entire order of battle for a ground operation [in Lebanon], in all its aspects”, strongly implying that the IDF is increasing its readiness for combat operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Speaking at the Middle East America Dialogue (MEAD) summit, an unnamed senior American official warned of the “catastrophic and unforeseen consequences” of a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, saying that thousands, or even tens of thousands, of people could be killed if the tensions escalated into an all-out war, along with heavy damage to both Israeli and Lebanese infrastructure

September 9, 2024

Three killed in shooting attack on Jordanian border

Allenby Bridge attack: Three Israeli civilians working at the Allenby Bridge border crossing were killed in a terrorist shooting attack on Sunday morning.

The shooter was a 39 year old Jordanian truck driver who exited the vehicle during a routine inspection at the terminal and opened fire killing three workers.
The three victims were named as: Yohanan Shchori, 61, a father of six from Ma’ale Efraim; Yuri Birnbaum, 65, from Na’ama; and Adrian Marcelo Podzamczer, from the city of Ariel.
Security guards on site returned fire at the terrorist, killing him.
President Herzog expressed his deep condolences to the families, adding, “The peace agreements between Israel and its neighbours are a cornerstone of stability in the region, and we trust all parties will thoroughly investigate the incident and work to prevent future attacks.”
He added, “This horrific act reinforces our resolve to stand firm in the face of terror, and we will continue to fight with determination against terrorism and extremist elements which seek to undermine our security, and the stability of the whole region.

The north: Syrian media are reporting that Israel attacked several targets inside Syria overnight.

Syrian state media says that overnight strikes it blamed on Israel killed at least 14 people in central Hama province.
Reports suggest that several missiles targeted the scientific research facility in Masyaf, which is used by the Iranian military. The compound has been targeted several times in the past.
The site is known as a major military research centre, including the development of chemical weapons.
Israel has not commented on the attacks.
Meanwhile over the weekend Hezbollah fired more than 100 rockets towards civilian communities in northern Israel.
Around 50 rockets were launched on Saturday nightand early Sunday morning. About 30 rockets were fired at Kibbutz Shamir in the Galilee panhandle and at the northern Hula Valley. Some were intercepted and the others fell in uninhabited areas without causing injury.
Separately about 20 rockets were fired at Kiryat Shmona. Most were intercepted and others fell in uninhabited areas.
In a familiar pattern, the IDF responded by attacking Hezbollah launchers and other military infrastructure.

Context: Over the weekend Israel marked 11 months since the October 7^th attack and the subsequent attacks from other areas.

This latest attack on the Jordanian border could imply an eighth front has opened against Israel. In the last 11 months Israel has been attacked from Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Yemen.
However Israel is reticent to refer to it in that way, as unlike the other countries Jordan remains a key ally.
Since Israel and Jordan signed a peace treaty in 1994, the two countries have cooperated extensively on security and intelligence sharing. Israel has helped the Hashemite Kingdom face threats from Islamist extremism and Israel relies on Jordan to help police their shared border.
In recent times there has been growing concern that Iranian proxies have been looking to breach the border and smuggle weapons into the West Bank.
The Allenby crossing is primarily used to import goods from the Arab world into both Israel and the West Bank. It is also used by Palestinians to leave the West Bank via Jordan, whist Israelis use alternative crossings to the north and south.
The bridge is named after the British commander who defeated the Ottoman Turks in the First World War, famously capturing Beersheba and Jerusalem, the Jordan Valley and Megiddo.
Meanwhile inside Israel mass protests have continued over the weekend, urging a deal to release the hostages. However the latest prospects appear to be bleak.
US officials have been working on a final bridging proposal but at this point are not even sure if it is worth presenting as the gaps between Israel and Hamas remain large. A secondary consideration is concern that if President Biden is publicly seen as failing, which could harm Vice President Harris’s campaign domestically.
Hamas has appeared to toughen its demands, including insisting that murderers be released in exchange for wounded and chronically ill male hostages. Until now, Hamas agreed that murderers would only be released in exchange for female Israeli soldiers who are being held hostage.
Israel had hoped that the US would apply more pressure on Hamas via Qatar, which could include expelling its leaders and closing their bank accounts.
Also over the weekend, the IDF withdrew its troops from Jenin, having fought there for the last 10 days. The operation included several locations across the northern West Bank including Jenin, Tulkarm and Faraa.
The objective was to target Iranian-supported Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorist infrastructure. According to the IDF, 36 terrorists were killed and 46 others were arrested. The IDF also found and confiscated 24 guns and destroyed three bomb-making laboratories. Several dozen improvised explosive devices that had been planted in advance were found and destroyed by IDF Engineering Corps troops.

Looking ahead: While Israeli authorities said that the border crossing would remain closed, the Jordanian government announced that it would re-open to civilian traffic today, although trucks are not being allowed to use the crossing at this point.

Despite the withdrawal from Jenin, the IDF have stated that they would return if they need to.
Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara has reissued her advice to the prime minister that a state commission of inquiry (COI) is the best tool for preventing international arrest warrants from being issued against senior Israeli officials. A state COI is viewed as preferable over a governmental commission as it would ensure complete independence from political influence.

September 4, 2024

Israeli Government under pressure amid protests

What’s happened: For a third consecutive evening, thousands of Israelis protested across the country Tuesday night calling for an immediate deal to release the remaining hostages.

In Tel Aviv an estimated 300,000 people gathered, with some of the protesters blocking traffic outside the IDF and MOD military headquarters.
As in the past, the families of the hostages gave emotional speeches, whilst the crowd chanted “Everyone! Now!”
The same chant was heard in Jerusalem and elsewhere across the country.
In a press conference yesterday, the government heard renewed criticism from the leader of the National Unity Party MK Benny Gantz, who served as part of the inner war cabinet from 10^th October until early June.
He accused the prime minister of “hesitating” during the process of the hostage negotiations in November last year.
Gantz recognised that controlling the Philadelphi Corridor was important to prevent weapons smuggling, but argued for a withdrawal to secure a hostage deal. “Just as we returned to fight as we needed too after that previous framework, so too, exactly, we will return to the Philadelphi Corridor if and when necessary, just as we will return to Zeitoun and Khan Younis and every other place.”
He added if Netanyahu is not strong enough to stand up to international pressure, “he should resign and head home.”
Gantz continued, “The Philadelphi Corridor is an operational challenge, but it isn’t the existential threat to the State of Israel. The Iranian axis of evil is the existential threat to us. An existential threat is a strategic-security threat, and it also includes the collapse of all the components of the State of Israel’s resilience…..the story isn’t Philadelphi, but the lack of true strategic decisions.”
His party colleague MK Gadi Eisenkot, (who like Gantz is a former IDF Chief of Staff and served in the war cabinet with him) added, “The State of Israel’s strategic situation won’t stand or fall over the Philadelphi Corridor, and the defence establishment will know how to provide a solution to that, with the understanding that the task that is of the utmost priority is getting the hostages back because, if not, that will effectively be a death sentence for the hostages, and we see how many people have paid with their lives for the delays and suspension in the past number of months.”
In response the Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement that “Whoever does not contribute to the victory and the return of the hostages would do well not to interfere.” The statement detailed that “since Gantz and his party left the Government, Israel eliminated Hamas’s chief-of-staff and Hezbollah’s chief-of-staff, attacked the Houthis, seized the Philadelphi Corridor – the lifeline by which Hamas arms itself – and carried out a pre-emptive strike against Hezbollah, which thwarted its malicious plan and destroyed thousands of rockets aimed at the Galilee.”

Context: The continued pressure on the government is compounded by international pressure and ongoing fighting in Gaza, the north and the West Bank.

There was also continued fallout of the UK government’s decision to restrict licenses of military components they supply to Israel (read more here)
One UK minister said to The Times that the US had found the intervention “unhelpful” as it would hamper ceasefire negotiations, and that “by trying to please all sides, they’ve ended up pissing off everyone.”
Another minister told The Times that Lammy and Reynolds should review arms exports for other countries, such as Saudi Arabia. “Why are they picking out the one Jewish state?” the minister questioned.
Prime Minister Netanyahu commented on X/Twitter saying, “Days after Hamas executed six Israeli hostages, the UK government suspended thirty arms licenses to Israel. This shameful decision will not change Israel’s determination to defeat Hamas, a genocidal terrorist organisation that savagely murdered 1200 people on October 7, including 14 British citizens,”
“Hamas is still holding over 100 hostages, including 5 British citizens. Instead of standing with Israel, a fellow democracy defending itself against barbarism, Britain’s misguided decision will only embolden Hamas. Israel is pursuing a just war with just means, taking unprecedented measures to keep civilians out of harm’s way and comporting fully with international law.
“Just as Britain’s heroic stand against the Nazis is seen today as having been vital in defending our common civilization, so too will history judge Israel’s stand against Hamas and Iran’s axis of terror. With or without British arms, Israel will win this war and secure our common future.”
Chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee, Yuli Edelstein called on Britain to “reconsider the decision” and “fix it immediately.” He added that that Israel “must promote a more comprehensive and independent ability to develop and manufacture weapons.”
Out of a total of 251 people abducted on October 7^th, 101 hostages remain in Hamas captivity, 97 of whom were captured on October 7^th and out of which at least 33 are no longer alive. The other four include two bodies of IDF soldiers and two Israeli civilians who independently entered Gaza (they are both though to be suffering from mental illness) who have been held since 2014. They are both though to be included on the list of hostages to be released in the first humanitarian stage of a deal.

Looking ahead: Further protests are expected to continue to apply pressure on the government, and the US administration is expected to present its final version of the deal.

The government also faces internal pressure. With the Knesset expected to begin to discuss the annual state budget, ultra-Orthodox coalition partners are threatening to not support it if they don’t receive allocations to their schools. However they have also stressed that they do not intend to bring down the government over this

September 3, 2024

UK halts some arms sales to Israel

What’s happened: the UK has announced that it is suspending 30 arms exports licences to Israel “for use in Gaza over International Humanitarian Law concern.”

This decision is due to take immediate effect, and impacts 30 out of 350 licences. It is the result of a review into International Humanitarian Law compliance commissioned by the Foreign Secretary on his first day in office.
The list of suspended items includes important components including fighter aircraft, helicopters and drones, as well as items which facilitate ground targeting that would be used in Gaza.
Parts for F35 jets will be exempted, unless they were to be directly exported to Israel.
The Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) has emphasised that the suspension will not change the UK’s steadfast support for Israel’s security, adding that the decision will be kept under review.
Defence Secretary Healey has said that the suspension of licences “will not have a material impact on Israel’s security”, and the Foreign Secretary has confirmed that “the UK continues to support Israel’s right to self-defence in accordance with international law.”
Export licences identified as not being for military use in Gaza were identified and confirmed as not requiring suspension.
Israeli Foreign Minister Katz, said the British decision “sends a very problematic message to the Hamas terrorist organisation and its backers in Iran” adding that Israel was disappointed “by the British government’s recent series of decisions, including the latest decision regarding security exports to Israel…” Katz added that “Israel is a law-abiding state that operates in accordance with international law and has an independent and respected judicial system – we expect friendly countries, such as the UK, to recognise this all year-round, especially just days after Hamas terrorists executed six Israeli hostages, during intense negotiations for the release of the hostages and for a ceasefire, and in light of the recent threats by the Iranian regime to attack the State of Israel.”

Context: While the UK is considered Israel’s second-staunchest western ally after the US, UK arms imports do not represent a substantial part of Israel’s defence procurement.

In addition to its own sophisticated domestic production, Israel is a substantial importer of arms, at least 70 percent of which come from the USA. Imports from France, Germany, and Italy also constitute a larger percentage than those from the UK.
UK arms exports to Israel have been quantified as sitting at only 0.9% of the country’s total.
Conversely, Israel supplies the UK 2.87% of its arms imports, with sales significantly increasing since 2006 with the escalation of military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
UK-Israel defence trade is of mutual benefit, and the relative importance of the trade relationship is arguably greater to the UK military than to the IDF.
Out of those goods licensed by the UK for export to Israel, a large proportion are for dual use goods for non-military use, or for goods for incorporation in Israel before onward export to a third country.
Within the military goods, the majority are for components rather than complete systems or sub-systems. Many UK licences for military equipment are for components for incorporation into US-manufactured platforms which were then re-exported to Israel.
Significant Israeli arms imports include the Hermes-450 UAV, Watchkeeper UAV, and M-113 Spike-NLOS (an Israeli fourth-generation fire-and-forget anti-tank guided missile and anti-personnel missile with a tandem-charge HEAT warhead).
Elbit Systems UK has won 25 public contracts, totalling more than £355m, since 2012, according to data supplied by Tussell, which provides details on UK government contracts. Elbit also runs a joint venture called Affinity Training with US company KBR. Affinity has a contract with the UK MoD worth £500m over 18 years to train UK pilots at RAF Cranwell in Lincolnshire.
There is no indication that the UK has ceased, or made any attempt to cease its weapons purchases from Israel during this period.
For further background on UK – Israel arms trade read our previous research paper here.

Looking ahead: Despite this decision, it is hoped that bilateral Anglo-Israel relations will remain strong and not be significantly impacted.

While Iran is yet to launch its promised retaliation against Israel for Ismail Haniyeh’s July assassination in Tehran, there is no indication that the UK would not intervene to protect Israeli airspace as it did in April.
The UK has stressed its continued support for Israel’s security, which the FCDO has described as “steadfast” in its statement on the matter.

September 2, 2024

General strike called following murder of six hostages by Hamas

What happened: On Saturday night, the IDF recovered the bodies of six murdered hostages who had been held by Hamas since 7^th October from a tunnel under Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.

The six whose bodies were recovered were Hersh Goldberg-Polin (23), Eden Yerushalmi (24), Ori Danino (25), Almog Sarusi (27), Alex Lobanov (33), and Carmel Gat (40).
According to autopsies, they were killed 48-72 hours before their bodies were recovered. The autopsies also indicated multiple shots at close range as the cause of death indicating they were executed.
Channel 12 News has reported that security officials have suggested they were executed as Hamas feared that Farhan al-Qadi who was rescued days earlier would divulge details about where the other captives were being held.
US President Joe Biden said he was “devastated and outraged” to learn of the captives’ deaths, while praising Hersh Goldberg-Polin’s parents who had recently spoken at the Democratic National Convention.
Prime Minister Starmer wrote on Twitter/X that he was: “completely shocked at the horrific and senseless killing of six hostages in Gaza by Hamas” adding that “Hamas must release all the hostages now, and a ceasefire deal must be agreed by all sides immediately to end the suffering.”
Foreign Secretary Lammy, took a similar line, writing that the “UK condemns Hamas’ appalling murder of six innocent hostages in Gaza in the strongest terms” The. In addition to offering his deepest condolences to those grieving, Lammy added that “Hamas must release all the hostages immediately, and all sides must accept the deal on the table to end this war.”
Hamas politburo member, Izzat al-Rishq, blamed the hostages’ deaths on Israel and the US, because Israel had not agreed to a ceasefire deal. He made no comments about their cause of death and did not respond to Israeli claims they had been executed.
The Hostages and Missing Families Forum have responded angrily, saying those hostages would still be alive if the government led by Prime Minister Netanyahu had reached a deal with Hamas for their release.
An estimated 500,000 people attended demonstrations, at 40 locations across the country organised by the Forum, with 300,000 in Tel Aviv alone. At one point, protestors blocked the Ayalon Highway.
Yesterday, the Histadrut Labor Federation (Israel’s main trade union) announced a general strike in response to the government’s failure to secure the release of the hostages. Histadrut chief, Arnon Bar-David, said that “a deal is more important than anything else”.
The general strike began at 6.00 this morning and is also being supported by the Israel Business Forum, which represents most private-sector workers from 200 of the country’s largest companies.
Ben Gurion airport has partially joined the strike, with flights not taking off for most of the morning.
In the West Bank, three Israeli police officers were killed in a shooting attack near the Palestinian city of Tarqumiyah yesterday. The gunman was later identified as a former member of the Palestinian Authority’s Presidential Guard, and was killed by Israeli special forces in Hebron later that day.
In the north, two Israeli soldiers and one civilian were injured when Hezbollah fired an anti-tank missile at the community of Kfar Yuval. 30 rockets were also launched towards Misgav Am and Matat, but these did not cause any injuries. The IDF has responded with airstrikes on Hezbollah rocket launchers in Ayta ash-Shab and Bint Jbeil, as well as buildings used by the terror group in Beit Lif, Taybeh and Odaisseh.

Context: 101 hostages remain in captivity for 332 days. The fact that these six hostages survived for so long, only to have been killed in recent days has shaken Israeli society.

Compounding the suffering is the fact that three or four of the dead were due to be released in the first (humanitarian) phase of a hostage-prisoner exchange – Goldberg-Polin due to his amputated arm and the female prisoners Yerushalmi and Gat (Lobanov as a dual Israeli-Russian citizen was also rumoured to be released).
The deaths come very soon after a reported shouting exchange between PM Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant in a cabinet meeting late last week, in which Gallant warned that the hostages’ lives were in danger.
Against the backdrop of failures to secure a ceasefire deal with Hamas, Prime Minister Netanyahu has received significant criticism for failures to compromise on the Philadelphi Corridor’s status, which he is accused of prioritising retaining control over rather than securing the release of hostages.
Netanyahu has insisted that remaining in the Philadelphi Corridor is essential for Israel to prevent Hamas from resuming weapons smuggling across the border, and gradually rebuilding its strength.
Netanyahu’s position is reportedly at odds with the security establishment’s leadership from the IDF, Mossad, and Shin Bet who believe that technical solutions and compromises can be implemented leading to a ceasefire and the release of hostages.
These demonstrations are the largest Israel has experienced since 7^th October.
While the Israeli government had previously maintained that military pressure was the best means to move towards the release of hostages, the murder of six hostages as a seeming direct result of a rescue operation calls this orthodoxy into question.
There is speculation as to whether the deaths were a result of a direct order to execute hostages if the IDF were to approach, or whether it was a local decision taken by the guards.
The general strike is considered a type of ‘economic doomsday weapon’. The last time such a strike was called was in March 2023, after Netanyahu fired Gallant over disagreements over the pace of the government’s electoral reform policy.
The cost of a general strike on the Israeli economy is estimated to be in excess of £150m a day.

Looking ahead: It is unclear how long the general strike which began today will last. The Histadrut had previously resisted calls to initiate such action, and hostage families hope the strike will help to mobilise mass protests and press Prime Minister Netanyahu to compromise on the Philadelphi Corridor.

The US is reportedly considering submitting a new proposal to Israel and Hamas. This would likely be a final offer calling for a ceasefire and the hostages’ release. President Biden and Vice President Harris are due to meet today with the National Security Council staff to discuss ways to advance a deal.

August 30, 2024

IDF completes West Bank operation

What happened: On Thursday afternoon, the IDF and the Shin Bet completed a 30 hour counter terrorism operation in the Northern West Bank and Jordan Valley.

The aim was to prevent terror attacks, expose terror infrastructure, and eliminate armed terrorists.
During the operation, IDF soldiers used a drone to locate an explosives laboratory and operations centre embedded inside a mosque in the area. Weapons, explosive devices and additional military equipment were also located inside the mosque.
12 terrorists were eliminated, more than 10 wanted suspects were apprehended, dozens of explosive devices were dismantled, and weapons confiscated.
One of the terrorists eliminated was Mohammed Jabber, also known as ‘Abu Shujaa’, the Commander of the Tulkarem Brigade, a terrorist group allied to Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Jaber was the head of a terrorist network in Nur Shams, a Palestinian refugee camp in Tulkarem. Additionally, he was involved in carrying out numerous attacks, including a shooting attack in Western Samaria in June, in which 66 years old Israeli civilian, Amnon Muchtar, was murdered.

Gaza: On Thursday, missiles were launched from the area of Khan Yunis toward the area of Kissufim. In response, IDF artillery and IAF aircraft struck the location of the launch.

During operational activity in Rafah, the IDF reported killing dozens of terrorists, including Osama Jadallah, a commander in the Islamic Jihad’s intelligence unit who took part in the October 7th Massacre.
The IAF struck approximately 40 terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip, including manned launch posts, military structures and terror infrastructure.
On Wednesday the IDF and Shin Bet rescued a soldier who killed on October 7th and his body taken to Gaza. At the request of his family, his name will not be published.
The IDF confirmed an attack on armed terrorists who tried to hijack the the American Near East Refugee Aid (Anera) Humanitarian Aid convoy in Southern Rafah. The aid organisation claims those killed were transport company staff.
Israel continues to deliver tens of thousands of polio shots to Gaza. Working with international medical charities and facilitated by sustained pauses in military action, a mass vaccination programme has begun – ensuring 500,000 children receive the vaccination.
According to The World Health Organisation (WHO), Israel and Hamas agree to limited fighting pauses in Gaza to allow urgent polio vaccinations.

Hezbollah – Lebanon and Syria: The IAF struck Hezbollah military structures in the area of Kfarkela in southern Lebanon.

A forest fire broke out near Kibbutz Hanita in the Western Galilee, yesterday, following rockets that crossed Lebanese territory and exploded in the area. The firefighters managed to get the fires under control and no danger was caused to the Kibbutz.
A short while ago, IAF fighter jets struck a number of Hezbollah rocket launcher sites in southern Lebanon that continue to pose a threat to Israel.
Several missiles were fired toward Israel; most were intercepted. One fell in an open area in Migdal Tefen. No injuries were reported.
On Wednesday, the IAF struck and eliminated Faris Qasim, a significant operative in Islamic Jihad’s Operations Division, in the area of the Syrian-Lebanese border.
Qasim was responsible for the development of Islamic Jihad’s operational plans in Syria and Lebanon. He had a central role in the recruitment of Palestinian terrorists into Hezbollah, and was responsible for carrying out attacks from Lebanon against Israel.

Context: In parallel to the counter terrorism operation in the West Bank, hostage release/ceasefire talks continued this week in Cairo and Doha.

Channel 12 News reports that Defence Minister Gallant showed the security cabinet members a document according to which, Israel has reached a “strategic juncture” and must choose between agreeing to a hostage deal versus not agreeing.
Gallant explained the situation as follows: “at the very least, a hostage deal will not only return hostages, it will also make it possible to reach an arrangement in the north, it will avert a regional war and moderate Iran’s intentions to carry out a revenge attack against Israel. On the other hand, not reaching a deal will mean risking imminent devolvement into a multi-theater war and that the hostages will remain in captivity”
The increased IDF focus on the West Bank comes after Israel has seen a spike in attacks emanating from there, especially the northern areas, in recent months.
In a statement posted to Telegram on Thursday following Jaber’s death, Palestinian Islamic Jihad threatened to ‘increase our people’s steadfastness, resilience and determination to continue’.
Jaber’s death was also the main story posted on Hamas’s social media yesterday, titled: ‘Hamas mourns commander Abu Shujja, says Israeli aggression will not break the resistance’.
An Israeli security official said “There is significant public pressure on these terrorists, especially after seeing the recent military operations. Since Wednesday, they began reaching out and have started to surrender.” The security official estimated around 15 terrorists have surrendered so far.
British Prime Minister Starmer and French President Macron met at the Elysée Palace on Thursday’s morning. The leaders stressed “the importance of pursing a political solution that creates an irreversible pathway to a Palestinian state alongside the State of Israel, which can provide lasting security for both Israelis and Palestinians”.
With speculation of a new peace summit, dozens of hostage families gathered on the Israel Gaza border. The hostages have been held for 328 days.
As of yesterday, COGAT along with partners at the WHO and UNICEF facilitated the delivery of cooling equipment into Gaza, along with 25,100 vials of the specialised polio vaccine. Ensuring enough vaccine for 1,255,000 people.
According to COGAT, yesterday between 10:00-14:00, the IDF paused operations in the Salah A Din Neighborhood in Deir al- Balah to enable the movement of Humanitarian Aid.
As well as 216 trucks carrying humanitarian goods were transferred to Gaza yesterday. 165 via Kerem Shalom and 51 via the Erez Crossing. Trucks carried food and medical equipment, including supplies for the logistic operation of the polio vaccination campaign.
The security cabinet voted overwhelmingly to back Prime Minister Netanyahu’s position in favour of maintaining Israeli troops in the Philadelphi Corridor as part of the ceasefire and hostage release deal still being negotiated. Israel believes that retaining control would prevent the resupply and rearming of Hamas through smuggling and terror tunnels.

Looking ahead: It is expected that a humanitarian ceasefire agreement will be implemented to allow polio vaccination campaign in Gaza.

According to Rik Peeperkorn, the WHO’s senior official for the Palestinian territories, the vaccination campaign is due to start on Sunday. The agreement was for the pauses to take place between 6 a.m. and 3 p.m..
However, Netanyahu’s office clarified that Israel “will not implement a humanitarian ceasefire across all of Gaza, but only in specific locations’, designated sites for vaccinating children in Gaza.”
Netanyahu’s office emphasised that the pause is not related to the longer-term ceasefire proposal currently under discussion in Doha.

LATEST

Key background

Two killed in Kiryat Shmona as rocket attacks intensify

One year on and Iranian proxies continue to attack Israel

Gallant: only ‘military’ action can bring displaced northern Israelis home

IDF declares Hamas military defeated in Rafah

Gallant: ‘Hamas no longer exists as organised military force’

Three killed in shooting attack on Jordanian border

Israeli Government under pressure amid protests

UK halts some arms sales to Israel

General strike called following murder of six hostages by Hamas

IDF completes West Bank operation

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