Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

October 16, 2024

UNIFIL and its problematic role in southern Lebanon

Background

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) was established by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in March 1978. Its primary objective was to assist the Lebanese government in regaining control in southern Lebanon. In May 2000, Israel withdrew from the security zone it had held in southern Lebanon for eighteen years. In accordance with UNSC resolution 425, the UN recognised and confirmed Israel’s withdrawal and compliance. This UN endorsed boundary is referred to as “the Blue Line.”Following the Second Lebanon War of 2006, UN resolution 1701 expanded UNIFIL’s mandate to ensure that Hezbollah would not operate in the area south of the Litani River. Furthermore that area would serve as a buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon, free of armed personnel, assets, and weapons with the exception of UNIFIL and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). As of September 2024, UNIFIL comprised approximately 10,000 peacekeepers from 50 countries. Indonesia is the biggest contributor with over 1,200 personnel, followed by India, Ghana, Nepal, Italy, Spain, France and Ireland. They are tasked with patrolling the region, facilitating Humanitarian Aid, and supporting local governance initiatives. Despite these efforts, its effectiveness has come under substantial criticism.Every year, UNIFIL’s mandate is renewed at the end of August. At this year’s meeting, Israel’s representative to the UN noted that Hezbollah has built a vast arsenal of rockets in southern Lebanon in UNIFIL’s area of operation. 90 per cent of the missiles fired at Israel that week were launched from civilian areas in their jurisdiction.

UNIFIL’s failures and Hezbollah violations since 2006

UNIFIL has struggled to fulfil its mandate due to significant operational constraints. For example it has been denied access to key areas misclassified as “private property” and over the years its personnel have encountered frequent threats and intimidation by Hezbollah. In 2009 the UN confirmed that Hezbollah violated UN resolution by stockpiling arms and ammunition south of the Litani River, following an explosion at an arms depot in the southern Lebanese village of Khirbet Silim. In 2015 Hezbollah launched a cross-border ambush, firing an anti-tank missile at an Israeli convoy. Two IDF soldiers were killed and seven injured. Since at least 2017, Hezbollah has circumvented UNIFIL and 1701, by operating under the guise of an NGO, “Green Without Borders”, which has established over 30 outposts along the Israeli border. In August 2023, the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, designated the Lebanon-based “Green Without Borders” and its leader, Zuhair Subhi Nahla, as affiliates to a terror organisation.

In August 2018 UNIFIL personnel tried to take photographs near Majdel Zoun. Hezbollah operatives seized UNIFIL peacekeepers’ weapons and set fire to their vehicles.In December 2018, the IDF exposed Hezbollah attack tunnels dug from southern Lebanon into northern Israel. One of the tunnels entered 40 metres in Israel. At Israel’s request UNIFIL carried out an independent assessment confirming the existence of four tunnels close to the Blue Line in northern Israel. UNIFIL said the tunnels constitute violations of resolution 1701.In 2019 a UNIFIL report stated that “Hezbollah activists in civilian clothes used force to prevent UNIFIL troops free movement, with roadblocks, harassment, threats, and theft of electronic equipment.” In December 2022, an Irish UNIFIL peacekeeper was killed and several others wounded after their convoy was shot at whilst driving through the town of Al-Aqbiya in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah was blamed but denied involvement.During the summer 2023, there were several provocative incidents by Hezbollah on the border. In one case two men were filmed climbing the security barrier and stealing an IDF surveillance camera. In a separate incident several men with face masks dressed in military camouflage fatigues walked along the border with Israel.In July 2023, 20 Lebanese figures, presumably Hezbollah members crossed about 80 metres into Israeli territory and placed two tents south of the Blue Line (inside Israel) in the of the Mount Dov region. In September 2023 Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant visited New York and told the UN Secretary-General that “the potential for escalation on the northern border has risen in the wake of serious violations of sovereignty by Lebanon. Iran is pushing Hezbollah to act.” At the time Gallant presented intelligence including maps and photographs highlighting Hezbollah’s recently established lookouts and increased presence on the border and attempts to create friction with IDF forces.On October 8^th 2023, a day after Hamas’s attacks on southern Israel, Hezbollah began to fire rockets, missiles and anti-tank weapons against both Israeli military and civilian targets. Prior to the IDF’s ground incursion earlier this month, Hezbollah fired over 9000 projectiles at Israel. The attacks since October 8^th 2023 have so far resulted in the deaths of 30 civilians (among them 12 children) and 43 soldiers, as well as the internal displacement of over 60,000 civilians.

IDF launches Operation Northern Arrows

On October 1^st 2024 the IDF launched a ground incursion targeting the Hezbollah infrastructure embedded close to the Israeli border, with the aim of allowing displaced Israeli residents of the north to safely return home. At that point UNIFIL were encouraged to leave their posts and retreat north for their own safety.In the first three weeks of the operation the IDF has uncovered and exposed the extent of Hezbollah force build-up of military infrastructure and hardware, some of which was found in close proximity to UNIFIL posts. According to IDF, Hezbollah had fired around 25 rockets and missiles in the last month close to UNIFIL sites. Since the ground operation has begun there have been two claims that Israel has violated UNIFIL’s mandate. In one incident an Israeli tank backed into the gates of a UNIFIL post. According to the IDF the incident took place as the tank, whilst under fire from Hezbollah, was evacuating injured soldiers. According to the IDF, they maintained lines of communication with UNIFIL throughout the incident, emphasising that at no point were UNIFIL personnel at risk. Speaking on October 14^th Prime Minster Netanyahu addressed these allegations saying, “The charge that Israel deliberately attacked UNIFIL personnel is completely false. It’s exactly the opposite. Israel repeatedly asked UNIFIL to get out of harm’s way. It repeatedly asked them to temporarily leave the combat zone, which is right next to Israel’s border with Lebanon.”Prime Minister Netanyahu further emphasised, “Israel is not fighting UNIFIL. It’s not fighting the people of Lebanon. It is fighting Iran’s proxy Hezbollah, which uses Lebanese territory to attack Israel… Hezbollah uses UNIFIL facilities and positions as cover while it attacks Israeli cities and communities. These attacks have claimed the lives of many Israelis.”

Conclusion

Hezbollah began violating the Resolution 1701 shortly after the Second Lebanon War ended, particularly in its effort to rebuild its military infrastructure embedded within Shiite villages in southern Lebanon. Within a decade, the number of violations had increased by 800 per cent and by the end of 2017, Hezbollah had committed around 13,000 violations of the agreement. In 2007, there were 410 violations. By 2017, according to the IDF, there were 3669 of these violations. Around two thirds of those were cases of armed combatants spotted south of the Litani River. Over the same period, Israel has also come under criticism for violating resolution 1701 by conducting intelligence gathering aerial sorties over southern Lebanon. Israel has argued these overflights were necessary given Hezbollah’s force build-up and the lack of accountability by the Lebanese government and UNIFIL. Hezbollah is currently firing missiles toward Israel from areas under the jurisdiction of LAF personnel and UNIFIL forces, the very entities tasked with enforcing the ban on Hezbollah or any other armed group’s presence in southern Lebanon. In efforts to bring the fighting to a conclusion, Israel will be demanding the removal of Hezbollah presence in the south and more vigorous implementation of resolution 1701 to permanently keep Hezbollah away.

October 15, 2024

Shooting attack in southern Israel, as rockets attacks continue

A police officer was killed and another person injured in an apparent terror shooting attack near Yavne, south of Tel Aviv.

According to initial assessments by emergency medical services, the shootings took place in two locations. The first, near the Yavne intersection, and the second in the Nir Galim junction.
Rocket sirens continue to be heard across northern and central Israel, yesterday and this morning.
As of last night, approximately 115 rockets were fired by Hezbollah into Israel. Sirens were heard across central Israel including Tel Aviv.
The IDF said that aerial defences intercepted several projectiles that crossed into Israeli territory, and there have not been any reports of casualties or damage.
Over the past day, in coordination with ground troops, the IAF struck more than 200 Hezbollah terrorist targets in southern Lebanon and deep within Lebanon, including terrorist cells, anti-tank missile posts, and surface-to-surface missile launchers.
In Gaza, IDF troops eliminated a terrorist cell in the Jabalya area that fired anti-tank missiles toward them. Additionally, the troops identified multiple armed terrorists that posed a threat.
According to COGAT data, Humanitarian Aid to Gaza continues with 83 trucks carrying humanitarian goods transferred to Gaza yesterday, via the Kerem Shalom Crossing.
Yesterday, the IDF announced that Sgt. Koren Bitan, 19, was killed in battle while fighting in the Gaza Strip. Overall, 740 soldiers have been killed since October 7th 2023.
On Monday the UK government announced that it has imposed new sanctions on Iranian military figures and organisations in response to Iran’s missile attack on Israel on 1st October.
The sanctions target senior leaders in the Iranian Army, Air Force, and IRGC Intelligence, as well as organisations like the Farzanegan Propulsion Systems Design Bureau (FPSDB) and the Iranian Space Agency, which are linked to missile development.
The measures include travel bans and asset freezes for individuals, and asset freezes for organisations involved in missile and military technology.

The IDF continues operational activity in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, striking over 230 terrorist targets, as Hezbollah attacks continue.

The operation in southern Lebanon has now entered its third week. Alongside the standing IDF brigades, reservist brigades have also been given missions relatively deep inside Lebanon to remove the threat of an invasion of Israeli territory by the Radwan Force.
The IDF exposed an underground compound, 800 meters long and is fortified against air strikes, included living quarters, a fully-stocked kitchen, showers, motorbikes and other off-road vehicles, and hundreds of sophisticated weapons, including Kornet missiles and anti-aircraft missiles. The troops also found personal firearms and fresh food, which indicated that Radwan Force terrorists had been in the compound until very recently.
This week, IDF eliminated 11 senior Hezbollah commanders, including the head of Hezbollah’s logistics staff and a member of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council, the commander of the Radwan force’s attack area in Bint Jbeil, the artillery commander in Bint Jbeil, the commander of the Hajir sector, the outgoing commander of the Hajir sector, the commander of operations in the Hajir sector, the commander of the artillery in the Hajir sector, the commander of the Hula area, the commander of the anti-tank system in Mis al-Jabal, and the commander of Radwan’s anti-tank system in Mis al-Jabal.
IDF Northen Command Officials estimate that that in the ground manoeuvre in southern Lebanon 800 terrorists were killed.
The IDF are thought to be focusing on targeting Hezbollah’s drone units, following the drone attack on the military base on Sunday near Binyamina and the old age home in Herzliya a day earlier on Yom Kippur.
The operations in northern Gaza is focused on preventing Hamas reconstituting its power base there, including their ability to attack Israelis. Efforts have been made to evacuate Gazan civilians away from the combat zone, whilst Hamas are pressuring them to remain.
During the past week. the Islamic resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for 20 attacks against Israel.In five incidents, interception of aerial targets to Israel from Iraq was reported, and in another incident, a drone hit in an open area. The rest of the other incidents have no verification.
Since November 2023, the Islamic resistance in Iraq has begun to carry out attacks against Israel and by October 14, 2024, they have claimed responsibility for 208 attacks against Israel.
IDF continues its campaign to destroy Hezbollah’s arms smuggling from Syria and Lebanon. In the beginning of the month, IDF attacked underground infrastructure of Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, in northeastern Lebanon, which is responsible for transporting and smuggling Iranian weapons into Lebanon,
Following precise IDF and ISA intelligence, the IAF conducted a strike during the month of September 2024 and eliminated the terrorist Samer Abu Daqqa, Head of Hamas’ Aerial Unit. Abu Daqqa replaced the previous Head of Hamas’ Aerial Unit, who was eliminated in October 2023.
Samer Abu Daqqa was responsible for carrying out numerous terror attacks, including launching drones towards Israeli territory and IDF troops. He was among those responsible for the paraglider and drones’ infiltrations into Israeli territory during the October 7th Massacre.

October 10, 2024

Two killed in Kiryat Shmona as rocket attacks intensify

Attacks have intensified with Hezbollah firing around 220 rockets into northern Israel on Wednesday, with continued fire this morning.

In Kiryat Shmona, a couple in their mid-forties Revital Yehud and Dvir Sharvit, who had refused to be evacuated from their home, were killed by shrapnel while walking their dog.
Six people were wounded when 40 rockets hit Haifa and the nearby suburbs.
A building was damaged in Safed, and fires broke out in Hatzor Haglilit and the area surrounding the town.
Sirens sounded yesterday in Caesarea, Zichron Yaakov and other communities near the coast.
Six people were wounded in a terrorist stabbing attack in Hadera. Before being shot the assailant attacked people in four different locations across the city, wounding two in the first, a third in the second, two more in the third, and a sixth in the final location. He was later identified as Ahmad Jabarin, a 36-year-old Israeli citizen from Umm al-Fahm.
Two soldiers were killed, and two soldiers were wounded in the last two days. On Tuesday, Sgt. Noam Israel Abdu, was killed in a ground operation in the northern Gaza Strip. In the same operation, a soldier was severely injured. Another soldier was severely injured in southern Lebanon. This morning, Maj. (res) Ronny Gazinate, 36-years-old, was killed in combat in southern Lebanon.
The IDF continues its operational activity in southern Lebanon. Over the past day, IDF eliminated terrorists during close-quarter encounters and in aerial strikes, located and confiscated numerous weapons including anti-tank missiles. In addition, over 100 Hezbollah terror targets were destroyed.
Over the past day, the IAF struck approximately 185 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, and in parallel approximately 45 Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip, including terrorist cells, infrastructure sites, military structures, observation posts, launchers, and weapons storage facilities.
The IDF announced it had assassinated two Hezbollah operatives, Ahmad Mustafa Al-Hajj Ali and Mohammad Ali Hamdan, who intended to carry out terrorist attacks in northern communities. The pair were responsible for launching hundreds of rockets and anti-tank missile toward the Kiryat Shmona area.
Last night, IDF intercepted a drone over the Red Sea, which was making its way toward Israel.
In an undercover operation in the West Bank city of Nablus, Israeli forces opened fire on a car in Nablus, killing four terror suspects.

Context: Despite the IDF offensive, Hezbollah is expanding its range and intensity of strikes against Israeli civilian communities .

According to the IDF Hezbollah actually fired over 350 rockets on Wednesday, with approximately 220 crossing over into Israel. Israel’s anti-missiles defences were able to intercept most of them, but the Hezbollah tactic is to try and overwhelm the system.
Wednesday’s attack on Kiryat Shmona was most sustained and heaviest barrage the city has faced since the war began.
In parallel the IDF appear satisfied with the progress they are making targeting Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. The IDF Chief of Staff struck a confident tone during the situational assessment yesterday saying, “Hezbollah is making efforts to conceal the significant damage we have inflicted…. They are experiencing command and control difficulties, leading to confusion at the decision-making level and challenges in their operational capabilities.”
The IDF are working off an orderly battle plan targeting hundreds of Hezbollah command centres, weapons storage facilities and military observation posts. In addition, whenever Hezbollah fires rockets the air force aims to destroy the launchers.
Along with the progress in southern Lebanon, the IDF again emphasised the importance of the attacking the Dahiya neighbourhood in Lebanon which they describe as, “a key terrorist stronghold for Hezbollah.” Adding, “this is where its decisions are made, and it manufactures and hides its strategic weapons – inside and below civilian buildings in Dahiya. Dahiya is not like the rest of Beirut.”
The latest messages from Hezbollah this week attests to their weakened condition and for first time in a year are no longer conditioning and connecting a ceasefire to the situation to Gaza.
At the same time reports are emerging of new approach led by the Mossad to try and reach an agreement to release the hostages. In a role reversal where before Hamas encouraged the Iranian proxies to join in attacking Israel and Hezbollah made any ceasefire conditional on the linkage. Now Israel is new reversing the equation and telling Iran if they want a ceasefire to save themselves and what’s left of Hezbollah they need to pressure Hamas to release the captives.
The three-way call yesterday between Prime Minister Netanyahu, US President Biden and Vice President Harris was their first call since the end of August.
Netanyahu’s insistence on the call as a perquisite for Gallant’s visit to the Pentagon was designed to ensure that Netanyahu remains personally engaged in the coordination with the US.
It is understood that the Biden administration has been working in recent days to moderate possible Israeli attacks and proposed a military-diplomatic “compensation package” instead.
The stabbing attack in Hadera is the third major terror attack in the last eight days, follows the attacks in Tel Aviv last Tuesday and Beer Sheva on Sunday. It was second attack committed by an Israeli-Arab citizen.
The mayor of Umm al-Fahm condemned the attack carried out by a resident of his city saying, “The fabric of common life must be preserved.”
There is heightened concern that in the immediate aftermath there is added motivation for copy-cat type attacks.

Looking ahead: IDF Chief of staff has committed to, “continue to strike Hezbollah with intensity, without allowing them any respite or recovery.”

The security cabinet is expected to meet this evening to discuss and approve the details of Israel’s response to Iran.
Defence Minister Gallant spoke about the anticipated response saying that, “Our attack will be lethal, precise and mainly surprising. They won’t understand what happened and how it happened; they’ll see the results.”
Part of the Israeli dilemma will be to calibrate a strike hard enough to end the cycle of attack and counter-attack.

October 7, 2024

One year on and Iranian proxies continue to attack Israel

Israel has commemorated the one-year anniversary of Hamas’s October 7^th attacks, as it continues military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, while coming under rocket and missile fire from Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.

Sirens sound this morning in Haifa, Acre and several surrounding towns and villages after a barrage of around 100 rockets were fired from Lebanon so far this morning.
Hezbollah launched 190 projectiles yesterday, including at civilian population centres in Tel Aviv and Haifa. Hezbollah claimed that it targeted the Glilot army base where the IDF’s 8200 signals intelligence unit is headquartered. The IDF says that five rockets were launched in the attack, some of which were intercepted and the rest struck open areas, causing no injuries or major damage.
Military operations against Hezbollah are continuing, with focus on southern Lebanon, and the Dahiya suburb of Beirut. A fourth army division has been deployed to southern Lebanon with the IDF stating it is conducting “limited, localised and targeted operations” in the area.
The IDF announced that it killed the head of Hezbollah’s logistical headquarters, Suhail Hussein Husseini in an airstrike on Beirut. Husseini, a member of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council, participated in weapon transfers between Hezbollah and Iran and was responsible for distributing the advanced weaponry among Hezbollah’s units. Further airstrikes were also conducted on Hezbollah targets in the more northern Beqaa Valley.
The Iranian foreign minister warned Israel against retaliating for its attack against Israel last week adding that any attack on Iran’s infrastructure would be met with a stronger response.
The IDF successfully intercepted a surface to surface ballistic missile fired at central Israel from Yemen. Sirens sounded across the centre of the country, but no injuries or damage was reported.
The Houthis claimed responsibility for this attack, saying that two missiles were fired at Israel as well as numerous drones targeting Eilat and Jaffa.
One Israeli soldier has been killed in the IDF’s latest operations in the northern Gaza Strip with another soldier suffering serious injuries in the same incident. His death marks the IDF’s 350^th fatality since launching the ground operation last October.
The IDF said that 20 Hamas operatives were killed in the past day during a new IDF operation in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya.
Hamas also targeted central Israel with a barrage of rocket fire while October 7^th commemorations took place. While mostly intercepted, shrapnel falling caused some damage to a property in Kfar Chabad where it also lightly wounded two women.
After weeks of silence, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has reestablished contact with hostage-ceasefire deal mediators in Qatar while former Hamas politburo chief, Khaled Mashaal told Reuters that the group would rise “like a Phoenix”, and that it continues to recruit fighters and manufacture weapons.

Context: Israel marked the anniversary of the October 7^th attack in two separate national ceremonies last night.

The first was held in Hayarkon Park in Tel Aviv, crowd-funded and organised by some of the victims’ families. It was originally expected to host 40,000 spectators, but due to the expanded range of recent rocket attacks, the capacity was reduced to fewer than 2,000.
The second, formal government-organised commemoration was held in an amphitheatre in Ofakim and pre-recorded several days ago. It was broadcast immediately after the first ceremony ended.
Both ceremonies included survivors’ testimony and musical accompaniment as well as reflecting a full range of Israeli society with messages of solidarity and unity. However the fact that two ceremonies were deemed necessary speaks largely to the continued anger and resentment felt my many over the government’s failure to take full responsibility into the disaster and its foot dragging in launching a state commission of enquiry into the disaster.
There is growing concern for the 101 hostages in Gaza. The latest intelligence assessment made public includes:
- Most of the hostages are being held in tunnels, likely narrow passageways with very little food, without electricity, without showers and without bathrooms, and with almost no air.
- The terrorist captors holding them have become more violent toward the hostages the more the IDF intensified its attacks. One official reportedly told the families that the terrorists’ finger on the trigger had become lighter. He said that the terrorists had been given a direct order to execute hostages if they felt in danger or if they heard soldiers approaching.
- The assessment is that most have lost 20% of their weight and some are most likely are suffering from severe medical issues that have not been treated.
- In such difficult conditions the hostages will not be able to survive for an extended period of time.
Despite the resumption of communication with Sinwar and the pressure from the families to reach a deal, the chances are not considered to be high. This is due to Sinwar’s continued intransigence and Israel’s formal demand to retain its position on the Philadelphi Corridor.
There had been efforts to reinvigorate a plan that would see all of the hostages released and allow Sinwar and the remaining Hamas leadership safe passage out of Gaza.
It remains unclear how much the US administration can invest in this process as the election draws nearer.
In parallel Israel is looking to increase the Humanitarian Aid into Gaza. The estimated cost is $5.4 billion (£4.12bn) per year for food alone. There are also suggestions that the Israeli Government is pushing to have IDF take over the distribution of all aid to Gaza. The IDF would take responsibility for every stage of the process – purchasing the aid, transporting it, securing it and distributing it to Gaza’s residents.
In the UK, Prime Minister Starmer made a statement to the House of Commons yesterday paying tribute to the victims of October 7th, including 15 British citizens who were slain, and another victim who has since died in captivity. He also talked about the Palestinians death toll, and the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon.
The Prime Minister said he supports Israel’s right to defend herself against Iran’s aggression in line with international law.

Looking ahead: The head of IDF Northern Command has told local leaders of northern communities that they could begin to make plans for the return of their residents after the Succot holiday, at the end of the month. The prevailing assessment is that the communities in question are ones that are at a distance from the border and leaders of these communities will await government endorsement of endorse this plan.

Consultations between Israel and the US continue over a response to Iran for firing 181 ballistic missiles at Israel last week. There are a number of attack options: from military installations to symbols of government, energy infrastructure and the Iranian nuclear programme.
The Israeli government has declared that going forward an additional – ‘Iron Sword War Memorial Day’ will be marked every year on October 7th.

September 17, 2024

Gallant: only ‘military’ action can bring displaced northern Israelis home

What’s happened: Israel’s Security Cabinet has designated the return of internally displaced northern residents an official war goal as Gallant tells special US envoy only “military” action can allow them to return home.

The Prime Minister’s Office has released a statement confirming that the Security Cabinet has updated its war goals for Operation Swords of Iron to include a fourth objective: “The safe return of the residents of the north to their homes”.
Thus far, Israel’s stated war aims have been to eliminate Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, return all hostages, and ensure that the Gaza Strip no longer poses a threat to Israel. This statement marks their first delineation of a strategic goal in the northern theatre.
This announcement comes following a meeting between Israeli Defence Minister Gallant and US Envoy Hochstein. While the Biden Administration and Hochstein have consistently advocated for a diplomatic solution to de-escalate tensions with Hezbollah, Gallant confirmed to Hochstein that time had run out for negotiations and that a military operation was the only remaining option.
Prime Minister Netanyahu echoed this view in a subsequent meeting with Hochstein making it very clear that “that it will not be possible to return our residents without a fundamental change in the security situation in the north”.

Context: Since 8th October, Hezbollah has launched near daily attacks on northern Israel with drones, rockets, and anti-tank guided missiles.

These attacks have killed 26 civilians, 20 soldiers, and forced the displacement of 80,000 residents living living in 28 evacuated localities and the city of Kiryat Shmona close to the Lebanese border.
Data from mid-May showed that approximately 930 homes within a 9 kilometre range from the border have been damaged. Israel’s Nature and Parks Authority estimates that approximately 140,000 dunams have been damaged by fires from Hezbollah missiles since the beginning of 2024.
The IDF has sought to downgrade Hezbollah’s military capacity and its rocket and missile-firing capabilities. In this context, it has carried out airstrikes along the Iraqi-Syrian border and the Syrian-Lebanese border to destroy Hezbollah air defence systems. However, while Israel has pushed most of Hezbollah’s special operations forces away from the border, they have ultimately failed to prevent it from continuing to fire on Israel.
With little to no sign of these attacks abating, the prospect of an Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon is becoming increasingly likely. It has also been reported that the IDF is considering establishing and occupying a buffer zone in southern Lebanon.
In November 2023, Hezbollah unilaterally honoured a brief ceasefire agreed between Israel and Hamas and subsequently indicated that it would do so again if another deal was reached.
In February, France submitted a proposal to Lebanon to secure a ceasefire and resolve Lebanon’s border disputes with Israel. The proposal would see Hezbollah withdraw roughly ten kilometres from the Israeli border (less than it is commanded to do by UN Resolution 1701), and to dismantle its military infrastructure within that zone. Some 15,000 Lebanese army troops would be deployed in the area to ensure future compliance with the buffer zone. In response, Hezbollah said it would not comment until a ceasefire had been achieved in Gaza.
However, with an Israel-Hamas ceasefire becoming ever more elusive, so too is the prospect of a de-escalation with Hezbollah despite France and the US’s efforts to encourage a diplomatic solution.

Looking ahead: Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly intends to fire Defence Minister Gallant and replace him with former Likud ally and current Chair of the New Hope party, Gideon Saar.

Rumours of Gallant’s impending dismissal have circulated for months. While Saar initially rejected rumours he would consider joining the Netanyahu government – he has campaigned against Netanyahu since forming his own right wing party in December 2020 – he is now thought to be open to joining the coalition and being appointed Defence Minister.
Gallant and Netanyahu’s relationship has been tense since March 2023 when Gallant urged a slow down of the government’s judicial reform and Netanyahu fired him (and intense public pressure led to Netanyahu backtracking).
More recent differences between the two men have included opposing a bill aimed at enlisting ultra-Orthodox men, the necessity of a ceasefire deal with Hamas, and the importance of the Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border

September 13, 2024

IDF declares Hamas military defeated in Rafah

What’s happened: The IDF has announced that the four Hamas battalions in Rafah have been operationally dismantled.

Over the last few months more than 2,000 terrorists have been killed. The IDF have destroyed approximately 13 km of underground tunnel, constituting 80% of the smuggling routes underneath the Philadelphi Corridor on the Egyptian border.
Combat engineers are expected to continue their work to find and destroy any remaining tunnels.
In the north, Hezbollah have continued to fires rockets into northern Israel. Last night around 20 rockets were fired toward Safed. No injuries have been reported, but the fire service worked through the night extinguishing flames.
Sirens were again sounded across areas in northern Israel in close proximity to the border with Lebanon, as Israeli Air Force jets carried out counter strikes on Hezbollah military sites southern Lebanon.
According to Syrian opposition sources, more details have emerged of the alleged Israeli strike on the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facility in the Masyaf area in Syria earlier this week.
According to their report the attack consisted of three phases:
- Israeli fighter jets struck all the approach roads preventing access to the site. According to eye witnesses this also included striking vehicles in the vicinity that tried to reach the facility.
- Israeli commandos dropped from their helicopter and entered the facility which Israel suspected was used by the IRGC to develop advanced weapons to Hezbollah. According to the report, the IDF commandos were on the ground for an hour and collected documents and other intelligence material
- Once the troops left, the site was destroyed.
There were further suggestions that Iranian personnel were also captured, but the Iranians have denied this. The Syrian government has denied the attack took place and Israeli officials have remained silent.
Israel has targeted Iranian assets in Syria hundreds of times over the last few years, but an operation of this type, involving Israeli troops on the ground, if true, would be represent a significant and unique accomplishment.

Context: The completion of operations in Rafah seems to mark the end of Phase 2 of the war, with the conquering of the command and control capabilities of the Hamas battalions that operated in Gaza a year ago.

Over the last few months the army had already begun transitioning to Phase 3, which is characterised by smaller targeted counter-insurgency operations (across the Strip) while forces hold the two key corridors – Netzarim that bisects the strip in the centre, and Philadelphi in the south.
The ground operation in Rafah lasted around four months. It was considered extremely sensitive and caused friction with Israel’s allies over the concern for the civilian population, which had swelled to 1.4 million on due to Gazans fleeing from other areas of Gaza.
However ahead of the operation the IDF cleared a humanitarian corridor north to Khan Yunis and the al-Mawasi safe zone.
Israel had always cited the importance of taking over Rafah as it functioned as the main smuggling route for Hamas over many years and significantly enhanced their ability to import weapons and explosives into the Strip, largely from Iran.
Rafah was also thought to be the hiding place of Hamas’s remaining leadership including Yahya Sinwar. Despite the IDF successfully targeting numerous senior Hamas figures, Sinwar and his brother Mohammad remain at large.
The third motivation of the Rafah operation was to free hostages. Here there was limited success, with two successful operations that saw the release of four hostages alive.
Two weeks ago the IDF recovered the bodies of six hostages, who were tragically assassinated days earlier, having survived in horrific conditions in a dark, humid tunnel, unable to stand up straight for over 10 months.
The death of the six hostages and the exposure of the conditions in which they were held has led to further intensify the public protests to reach a deal for the release of the remaining 101 hostages.

Looking ahead: Israeli media reports are suggesting that IDF Chief of Staff Halevi is making preparations to resign at the end of the year.

The end of Rafah operation adds further speculation as to whether the IDF will now pivot attention into a more offensive posture in the north.
Around 80,000 residents of the north remain internally displaced, with growing pressure on the government to reach a solution either diplomatic or military to allow them to return home in peace and security

September 11, 2024

Gallant: ‘Hamas no longer exists as organised military force’

What’s happened: Israel’s Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, has told reporters that Hamas no longer exists as an organised military force after eleven months of combat operations in the Gaza Strip.

Briefing the foreign press yesterday, Gallant said: “Hamas as a military formation no longer exists. Hamas is engaged in guerrilla warfare and we are still fighting Hamas terrorists and pursuing Hamas leadership.”
Gallant also said that conditions were “ripe” for the first phase of a ceasefire deal with Hamas which would result in a six week pause in fighting and partial withdrawal of Israeli troops in return for the release of female, young (under-18), elderly, or unwell hostages. Gallant however did not commit to permanently ending combat operations in Gaza.
These comments come as Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, confirmed that the US was working closely with Qatar and Egypt to “to bridge any remaining gaps” between Israel and Hamas, and that a new proposal framework would be put to both parties “very soon”.
Speaking at the same London press conference as Blinken, British Foreign Secretary, Lammy, confirmed “there can be no role for Hamas going forward”, seemingly aligning with Israel’s post-war governance vision for Gaza.
Bloomberg reports that Israel had offered Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar and his family, safe passage out of Gaza in return for the release of all hostages held by the group. It is unclear what Hamas’s response to this offer has been.
The offer was reportedly made by Gal Hirsch, the Israeli government’s special envoy for hostages. During a visit to the US, he told Bloomberg that Israel is “ready to provide safe passage to Sinwar, his family, whoever wants to join him…we want the hostages back…we want demilitarisation, de-radicalisation of course — a new system that will manage Gaza.”
Despite US optimism on the prospects for reaching a ceasefire agreement – Blinken last week claimed that over 90% of outstanding issues had been agreed on – significant obstacles remain, including the presence of Israeli troops in the Philadelphi Corridor.
While the US is blaming Hamas for the lack of progress on negotiations, Egypt and Qatar have reportedly taken the opposite view and considered issuing a joint statement condemning Israel “for the failure of the contacts”.
The IDF released footage of the tunnel where Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Eden Yerushalmi, Ori Danino, Alex Lobanov, Carmel Gat, and Almog Sarusi were held by Hamas before their executions. This tunnel was approximately 700 metres from where Farhan al-Qadi was rescued by Israeli special forces days earlier, and was described by the IDF as having one of its shafts opening “in a children’s room in a house”.
In the north, the IDF and Hezbollah continue to exchange fire as tensions on the Israeli-Lebanese border show little sign of abatement. 45 rockets were fired at Israel from Lebanon on Tuesday, targeting Mount Meron and the Western Galilee. Some were intercepted by air defence systems, and no injuries were reported. A number of drones were also launched at northern Israel later in the evening.
The IDF has responded with a series of counter-strikes on southern Lebanon targeting rocket launchers at at-Tiri and Mansouri, and a building used by Hezbollah in Rachaf.
Combat operations continue in Gaza Strip, with two Israeli soldiers killed in a helicopter crash in Rafah last night when it impacted the ground instead of touching down correctly.

Context: The release of the footage from the tunnels in Rafah has sharply brought home to both the political leadership and the wider Israeli public the terrible conditions under which the hostages still alive are being held – airless, dark and humid tunnels too low to even stand up in.

In a potential sign of growing public disillusionment with the Prime Minister’s policies, a conversation was leaked between Netanyahu and Ori Danino’s father, a Shas-voting Rabbi (who would generally be thought of as part of Netanyahu’s natural voting constituency). “Stop dealing with gathering Knesset seats” Danino tells the PM. “this all happened on your watch. My son was murdered in a tunnel that you built on your watch [by allowing funds and dual-use materials into Gaza]. Forgive me, forgive me. You’ve been in power for many years. Very many. The concrete and the dollars went in [to Gaza] on your watch.”
While the government traditionally claimed that military pressure helped bring about the release of hostages, the recent executions in the Rafah tunnel have led the IDF to alter operational plans.

Looking ahead: Israeli security officials are increasingly turning their attention towards Hezbollah.

In one of the strongest indications of a potential Israeli incursion into Lebanon, Defence Minister Gallant told troops that the IDF was shifting its focus from Gaza to the northern front, and that they should prepare for a ground offensive there.
Addressing troops, he said “The centre of gravity is moving to the north, we are nearing the completion of our missions in the south, but we have a task here that has not been carried out, and this mission is to change the security situation and return the residents to their homes”.
He also confirmed that “We are finishing training the entire order of battle for a ground operation [in Lebanon], in all its aspects”, strongly implying that the IDF is increasing its readiness for combat operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Speaking at the Middle East America Dialogue (MEAD) summit, an unnamed senior American official warned of the “catastrophic and unforeseen consequences” of a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, saying that thousands, or even tens of thousands, of people could be killed if the tensions escalated into an all-out war, along with heavy damage to both Israeli and Lebanese infrastructure

September 9, 2024

Three killed in shooting attack on Jordanian border

Allenby Bridge attack: Three Israeli civilians working at the Allenby Bridge border crossing were killed in a terrorist shooting attack on Sunday morning.

The shooter was a 39 year old Jordanian truck driver who exited the vehicle during a routine inspection at the terminal and opened fire killing three workers.
The three victims were named as: Yohanan Shchori, 61, a father of six from Ma’ale Efraim; Yuri Birnbaum, 65, from Na’ama; and Adrian Marcelo Podzamczer, from the city of Ariel.
Security guards on site returned fire at the terrorist, killing him.
President Herzog expressed his deep condolences to the families, adding, “The peace agreements between Israel and its neighbours are a cornerstone of stability in the region, and we trust all parties will thoroughly investigate the incident and work to prevent future attacks.”
He added, “This horrific act reinforces our resolve to stand firm in the face of terror, and we will continue to fight with determination against terrorism and extremist elements which seek to undermine our security, and the stability of the whole region.

The north: Syrian media are reporting that Israel attacked several targets inside Syria overnight.

Syrian state media says that overnight strikes it blamed on Israel killed at least 14 people in central Hama province.
Reports suggest that several missiles targeted the scientific research facility in Masyaf, which is used by the Iranian military. The compound has been targeted several times in the past.
The site is known as a major military research centre, including the development of chemical weapons.
Israel has not commented on the attacks.
Meanwhile over the weekend Hezbollah fired more than 100 rockets towards civilian communities in northern Israel.
Around 50 rockets were launched on Saturday nightand early Sunday morning. About 30 rockets were fired at Kibbutz Shamir in the Galilee panhandle and at the northern Hula Valley. Some were intercepted and the others fell in uninhabited areas without causing injury.
Separately about 20 rockets were fired at Kiryat Shmona. Most were intercepted and others fell in uninhabited areas.
In a familiar pattern, the IDF responded by attacking Hezbollah launchers and other military infrastructure.

Context: Over the weekend Israel marked 11 months since the October 7^th attack and the subsequent attacks from other areas.

This latest attack on the Jordanian border could imply an eighth front has opened against Israel. In the last 11 months Israel has been attacked from Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Yemen.
However Israel is reticent to refer to it in that way, as unlike the other countries Jordan remains a key ally.
Since Israel and Jordan signed a peace treaty in 1994, the two countries have cooperated extensively on security and intelligence sharing. Israel has helped the Hashemite Kingdom face threats from Islamist extremism and Israel relies on Jordan to help police their shared border.
In recent times there has been growing concern that Iranian proxies have been looking to breach the border and smuggle weapons into the West Bank.
The Allenby crossing is primarily used to import goods from the Arab world into both Israel and the West Bank. It is also used by Palestinians to leave the West Bank via Jordan, whist Israelis use alternative crossings to the north and south.
The bridge is named after the British commander who defeated the Ottoman Turks in the First World War, famously capturing Beersheba and Jerusalem, the Jordan Valley and Megiddo.
Meanwhile inside Israel mass protests have continued over the weekend, urging a deal to release the hostages. However the latest prospects appear to be bleak.
US officials have been working on a final bridging proposal but at this point are not even sure if it is worth presenting as the gaps between Israel and Hamas remain large. A secondary consideration is concern that if President Biden is publicly seen as failing, which could harm Vice President Harris’s campaign domestically.
Hamas has appeared to toughen its demands, including insisting that murderers be released in exchange for wounded and chronically ill male hostages. Until now, Hamas agreed that murderers would only be released in exchange for female Israeli soldiers who are being held hostage.
Israel had hoped that the US would apply more pressure on Hamas via Qatar, which could include expelling its leaders and closing their bank accounts.
Also over the weekend, the IDF withdrew its troops from Jenin, having fought there for the last 10 days. The operation included several locations across the northern West Bank including Jenin, Tulkarm and Faraa.
The objective was to target Iranian-supported Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorist infrastructure. According to the IDF, 36 terrorists were killed and 46 others were arrested. The IDF also found and confiscated 24 guns and destroyed three bomb-making laboratories. Several dozen improvised explosive devices that had been planted in advance were found and destroyed by IDF Engineering Corps troops.

Looking ahead: While Israeli authorities said that the border crossing would remain closed, the Jordanian government announced that it would re-open to civilian traffic today, although trucks are not being allowed to use the crossing at this point.

Despite the withdrawal from Jenin, the IDF have stated that they would return if they need to.
Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara has reissued her advice to the prime minister that a state commission of inquiry (COI) is the best tool for preventing international arrest warrants from being issued against senior Israeli officials. A state COI is viewed as preferable over a governmental commission as it would ensure complete independence from political influence.

LATEST

Key background

Yahya Sinwar eliminated

No hostages killed in Sinwar strike – PM

UNIFIL and its problematic role in southern Lebanon

Shooting attack in southern Israel, as rockets attacks continue

Two killed in Kiryat Shmona as rocket attacks intensify

One year on and Iranian proxies continue to attack Israel

Gallant: only ‘military’ action can bring displaced northern Israelis home

IDF declares Hamas military defeated in Rafah

Gallant: ‘Hamas no longer exists as organised military force’

Three killed in shooting attack on Jordanian border

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