In this episode, recorded during a media briefing, Richard Pater speaks with Sima Shine about the trajectory of the war with Iran. Sima examines the Iranian threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the implications for Gulf states and regional alliances, and the internal dynamics inside Iran as the regime works to maintain control during the conflict.
Sima Shine is a former senior official in Israel’s intelligence community who served for many years in the Mossad, ultimately heading a research and evaluation division. She later served as Deputy Head of Strategic Affairs at Israel’s National Security Council and as Deputy Director General in the Ministry of Strategic Affairs, where she oversaw the Iranian portfolio. She is currently a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv.
Transcript
(This transcript has been automatically generated by AI — please excuse any potential errors.)
00:00:06:21 – 00:00:34:20
Richard Pater
Hello and welcome to this BICOM briefing and podcast recording. I’m Richard Pater, the director of BICOM. And today is Thursday. The 12th of March, the 13th day of the war. Today our guest speaker is Sima Shine. For background, Sima has worked in the Israeli intelligence community for most of her career. She served in the Mossad for many years, culminating as one of the division heads responsible for research and evaluation with a great deal of emphasis and experience monitoring.
00:00:34:20 – 00:01:06:16
Richard Pater
Iran. After retiring from the Mossad, she served as deputy head of strategic affairs in Israel’s National Security Council and as deputy Director general in the Ministry of Strategic Affairs. When she was also responsible for the Iranian file. And since leaving public service, she has now been a researcher at the INSS in Tel Aviv. Sima, I’ll hand over to you now if you want to make some opening comments, perhaps you can talk a little bit about the Iranian preparations before the war and your assessment of the of the current campaign.
00:01:06:20 – 00:01:08:16
Richard Pater
As we stand at the moment.
00:01:08:18 – 00:01:31:02
Sima Shine
Yeah. So, thank you very much. Thank you for the opportunity to talk to all of you. And I will start shortly and briefly and then open for all your questions. I want to say two to touch three issues that the Iranians have been preparing before the war and to say how it handled it was handled since the war started.
00:01:31:04 – 00:01:57:10
Sima Shine
So first and foremost, important element was the issue of continuity. They said that was the most important. That was and is the most important, element in Iranian thinking. The regime has to be, to continue and to be, resilient. And therefore, before the war, they have said publicly that they have nominated people for all the jobs.
00:01:57:10 – 00:02:44:14
Sima Shine
If somebody will be, assassinated, they his deputy had his second deputy. And so, deputy will, replace. So, there will be, continuity and, and no obstacle is only on the way of operation. That was correct with the, security in the security establishment as well as for instance, the, the, decision of the leader at that time, that Larijani, the one who is a secretary of the National Security Council, became actual and the president is the head became actually the head and the one who was decided because the because the president was it was not, was not perceived to be someone who knows how to how to handle
00:02:44:14 – 00:03:07:17
Sima Shine
such an operation. He was nominated to be the one who coordinates the whole operation, the military as well as the political one. And that’s what we see today. So, all these, all these elements of continuity, we do see the head of the IRGC was killed. So, his deputy, Wahida, is now the head of the IRGC in brackets.
00:03:07:17 – 00:03:32:01
Sima Shine
And just a very bad person, a lot of blood of his in his, on his hands. He was the one who, is responsible for the, to two major attacks on Israel in Jewish centres in Argentina in the 90s. So, but he’s not the only bad guy there. Dia. So that’s the one issue, the continuity.
00:03:32:05 – 00:03:58:19
Sima Shine
And we see it now very much. And the and this is at the end of the day will be the issue. How does the regime survive and continues to, to rule in Iran? The second issue is the issue. What Iran has said is what they will do once they will be attacked and they are doing exactly what they have done, even though they have been saying when they say they will attack Israel, we know they do it too.
00:03:58:19 – 00:04:23:17
Sima Shine
They say they will attack American bases in the Gulf. They are doing it. I will say, of course, some words about what is happening in the Gulf. And three, they will close the Hormuz Straits. Everything they have said at that time, they are doing now. And the purpose is to make this, war economically very, very expensive to the US and to the world.
00:04:23:19 – 00:04:56:20
Sima Shine
Iran doesn’t have they know that a lot of that when it comes to the military capabilities, there is no balance between them and the US and Israel. They know they don’t have too many options on the military side. And therefore, they decided a from the beginning that they will concentrate on one the economic aspect to, the pressure that can be put by the Gulf states on, on the US now with the economic issue, which they, no question that they see is the most important one.
00:04:56:22 – 00:05:29:05
Sima Shine
Is, it is by their attacks on the, a Saudi and the Emirates oil fields, the Qatari gas field, they, those countries have already announced that they are closing parts of their facilities. And the aim, even though there is no salt shortage of oil in the world, there is surplus in the world. It automatically because the price is not only a question of shortage is also a question psychological effect.
00:05:29:07 – 00:05:54:04
Sima Shine
And they understand that if they if the American citizen will have to, to, to play more and to pay more when he plays with his car, that will be a pressure on the president. That is in a year of elections. And they were very proud of the fact that he could they, lower the price of oil and the and the other element.
00:05:54:04 – 00:06:24:06
Sima Shine
So, this is a very important one. The second one is Hormuz Straits. They said they will close it, and they understand how important it is to the flow of oil. And as we see, for the time being, only Chinese and Chinese ships are crossing the, the commerce. We know that most, most of the ships that it was closed decided to turn and not to try even to a to a pass through the straits.
00:06:24:08 – 00:06:51:20
Sima Shine
And, for the time being, it is closed. Now, a President Trump has said he will ask the US will escort the ships. We don’t see it yet. He said they will, also support the insurance. To those ships. We don’t see it yet. And there is the issue now of them of the sea and what was it?
00:06:51:22 – 00:07:26:02
Sima Shine
I think I think there was a huge an about there was a report of sea mines. We are not sure about that, but they it might be that they did something with mines, but we didn’t see the yet to be sure that they happened. So, and the last one is a symbolic one but very important. And that is you advise on Arab Azerbaijan, which has pipelines going out of Azerbaijan, Tbilisi and the and the Turkey and Kian to the, to you, to Europe and also to Israel.
00:07:26:04 – 00:07:52:21
Sima Shine
And so, from Iranian point of view, that is the message. Them the minute you started the war, you, you would begin paying for that economically, paying for that. So that’s the second issue I wanted to mention. The third one is, on the issue of the, who they continue with the, the how long this war will continue.
00:07:52:21 – 00:08:19:14
Sima Shine
Now here it’s a, I have to say there is an on the Iranian side, we hear they don’t want a ceasefire. It doesn’t mean that they don’t want a ceasefire, but that’s what we hear from them. Even today, Kelly Bass, the head of the, of the, a parliament, who has a very close relations with the IRGC, was a commander in that agency.
00:08:19:14 – 00:08:48:00
Sima Shine
And they probably are a very important person now with the with the war machine in Iran. Say, we don’t want we don’t want a ceasefire. We want to make sure that AA1, a no war will happen again in a few or in a short way. And two, that everyone that starts a war with us, we pay heavily.
00:08:48:02 – 00:09:15:19
Sima Shine
Now, on this issue, I want to mention that we have heard from the president of Iran that there are three, demands, for a ceasefire, one is, the right of Iran. They don’t say to enrich, but they mean to enrich. They say the legal rights of Iran. Two is a compensation, for the damage that was close to them.
00:09:15:21 – 00:09:50:22
Sima Shine
And three is a, from a in the international guarantee that they will not be attacked. What I, what we understand is that Iran is trying to, establish a new equation. One, as I said before, somebody who attacks as we pay heavily economically. And the second is to make sure that they stop the chain of all the, I would say, the vicious circle of, war, a ceasefire negotiation.
00:09:50:22 – 00:10:19:23
Sima Shine
And again, will that what they are saying? We have been negotiating and that would happen to us. So, the question is, will be in within some days or some weeks, as, as President Trump has said, it might stop within some weeks. Some days, some weeks, it’s not by chance that he’s not saying exactly when in word, but it gives the, gives the impression that they are not under pressure to stop it.
00:10:20:01 – 00:10:49:12
Sima Shine
On the other hand, everybody knows he would prefer a short, a short little, I want to put a before opening to questions. I want to put an emphasis on the issue of the Gulf states, which I think is very important and some word about what is happening, internally in Iran. So as to the Gulf states, everybody knows that they are not taking only American bases, of course, Iran and distance.
00:10:49:16 – 00:11:11:00
Sima Shine
So, the explanation that they give is a since you, you know, that the, the, the Americans are attacking us, even if they are not attacking for you from your soil. The fact that they can stay in your country, is the reason that we are attacking you. And they have even some phone calls with leaders in the Gulf.
00:11:11:02 – 00:11:45:00
Sima Shine
Of course, their money, one is more important than others. And they are also the Qatari one. But what we see is one that they are, specifically attacking much more than others, the Emirates and it’s not by chance, it’s because of their relations with Israel. And now the question is, everybody is asking me about the, what will be the, the Gulf states, a, relations between the Gulf states and Israel after the war.
00:11:45:02 – 00:12:14:02
Sima Shine
Is it, is the war a making us closer or on the contrary and make sure that the Gulf states understand that their relations with Israel might cost more than the benefiting them. So first of all, I think that the two countries that are under normalization is Israel, Bahrain and the Emirates are in close cooperation with this very, ally.
00:12:14:04 – 00:12:41:24
Sima Shine
The Emirates are quite successful in intercepting most of the missiles. Probably with some support that they get from, of course, from the Americans, from CENTCOM, but perhaps also something from other countries. The Saudis, I don’t think, where since the 7th of October have stopped thinking of normalization with Israel. And that’s a huge success of a sin.
00:12:41:24 – 00:13:06:17
Sima Shine
Well, because we were very, very close to normalization before the war. And I don’t think this war is encouraging or discouraging them from the relation with Israel. They do think that it I’m sure they do think that the relationship with Israel will support them in the future. But for the time being, they have other another consideration in order not to normalize relations.
00:13:06:19 – 00:13:34:11
Sima Shine
But I have also to say that my impression is that there is a lot of say it is not only a, an angle on UN, it’s not only the, but the fact also that the Iranians are so that the Gulf states are so nervous on the Iranians. I do think that they are also, concerned with the fact that the US didn’t take into account their pressure before the war not to start a war.
00:13:34:13 – 00:14:05:23
Sima Shine
And, of course, they say that Israel was part of the, an encouragement to the president to go for a walk, a just in brackets. I want to say I, I don’t I assume all of you, knowing Trump, don’t think that they believe in Netanyahu as they persuaded the president to go, completely against his own, his own legacy of closing walls instead of opening walls, because Netanyahu told him that’s a good trip to Iran.
00:14:06:00 – 00:14:40:14
Sima Shine
So of course he was encouraging him, no question about that. And of course, the achievements of the of June 25th encouraged him. And the achievements in Venezuela also encouraged him. And, and also his belief that the Iranians are the regime in Iran and especially the nuclear issue is a is a problem. So, what I think is that there is a mix there are mixed feelings in the Gulf states, against Iran, against Israel, against the US.
00:14:40:16 – 00:15:05:24
Sima Shine
They depend on the US. So, they cannot change their relations. They depend on the on the support, on the land, on the buying equipment, arms and everything in the US. But I think there is a huge nervousness in the Gulf. They, they want to be their aim is to improve it, to be a hub for AI, to be a financial hub and others.
00:15:06:05 – 00:15:37:05
Sima Shine
And the world doesn’t support these plans for the future. So I think it’s, it’s one of the issues that I personally think is very interesting in, in, in looking for the future as well as the current and the remember, they remember that the geography doesn’t change and they will stay neighbours of Iran and therefore this is part of their calculation is, well, lasting is the about the internal situation in Iran.
00:15:37:07 – 00:16:02:06
Sima Shine
As the, as we are also the Iranians, it’s not only continuity of the system and the I also say a word about Mujtaba. It’s also to make sure that the people don’t go to the streets, contrary to what President Trump and Reza Pahlavi and Netanyahu have said to him, to them, after day, after we stop the war, that’s your time to go to destroy it.
00:16:02:08 – 00:16:31:07
Sima Shine
So, the regime has put a lot of Basij and IRGC people in different places. They’ve put barricades in there on the streets to, to make sure that they can check the people who is who and who is going where, and to make sure that nobody is sending pictures from any place. And what was what is interesting is that yesterday, I don’t know all the details, as you know, everything I’m saying is open sources.
00:16:31:09 – 00:17:06:12
Sima Shine
But what I understand is that yesterday there was a major attack on this. Gatherings of Basij and ROTC in different places on the streets of Tehran and other cities by US’s, some of them or all of them or some of them, I don’t know, coming from Iran itself. And I think this is we don’t know yet the proportion of this event and the what the what did it do and how many did they stop.
00:17:06:12 – 00:17:45:13
Sima Shine
What did this. So, we just know a very small details that it might be, a very interesting event. It that’s all what I know. I don’t know more about that. So don’t ask me because I really don’t know. And Mujtaba, that’s my last remark. So, we so we an hour ago, a, a someone on the, on the Iranian TV and reading the message from which but we didn’t see his face, and we didn’t see him even not we call we called it to something before, there are rumours that he was injured in his face.
00:17:45:13 – 00:18:07:01
Sima Shine
And perhaps this is the reason, there is a maybe also a reason that they think that if we see we see him, we will know where he is. So, I don’t know what the reason is, but they that doesn’t encourage the people in Iran to believe that everything is okay and the regime is stable and they and the leader is, is controlling everything.
00:18:07:01 – 00:18:32:09
Sima Shine
The new leader is controlling everything that happens. But what is more important is the message that comes out of say, well, he has said and the message is continuing his father resistance policy. We should resist and that will be the way we will succeed. And that doesn’t mean that he will not change his mind, that he will not do things that they, in order to stop the war.
00:18:32:11 – 00:18:56:18
Sima Shine
It doesn’t say anything. We already learned that it’s one thing to talk to the people and to make sure that the only aura or the base and they are, you see, and everything is, understand that the leader is under control and the situation is under control, and it’s something else. If they want to stop the war, they will have to come to terms with the Americans.
00:18:56:20 – 00:19:16:13
Sima Shine
Otherwise, they, if they continue with the same, the same demands that they have put between before, Steve will go before the will, probably they will not get to any, any agreement. So, it’s still open there. I stop here and please feel free to ask any question.
00:19:16:15 – 00:19:42:06
Richard Pater
Fantastic. Sima, thank you very much indeed. I’m going to start with 1 or 2 questions, and then and then I’ll open it up to the floor. I wanted to ask you specifically about what remains of the, the enriched uranium, stockpiles. Allegedly. Well, we understand 450g, up to 60% of highly enriched uranium. We understand that it’s some in maybe, maybe in some form of collapsed tunnel in the east behind area.
00:19:42:06 – 00:19:53:03
Richard Pater
First of all, is that your understanding? And what would it take for Israel or the US either to extract it or how do you destroy and decommission such a stockpile?
00:19:53:05 – 00:20:18:03
Sima Shine
So, this is an issue. It was an issue before. It continues to be an issue. We from what I understand, at the beginning, we thought that they all the 440kg of 68% in which are in this fight. And some days ago, we had the IAEA, EASA, general Secretary Grossi saying that they probably 200kg are in Spain and probably others, somewhere else.
00:20:18:05 – 00:20:46:20
Sima Shine
We, assume I always say, don’t look only on the 60% and you have to look on the 20%. They have some turns of 8,020%. It takes a little bit more time to enrich it to 60 and 90. But if you know how to enrich, no problem. It’s only a question of time. And then and therefore the demand, once there is any, any, negotiations, the demand will be, will probably be to take out everything that is there.
00:20:46:22 – 00:21:11:17
Sima Shine
The question would be if it’s possible to reach the places because they, they have been bombed in June. They are today again bombed. So, we don’t know, how is it but will it be possible to reach to those places? But the material probably. Is there yet still, even after taking. Because the material, in order to dilute the material, you need specific special chemical material.
00:21:11:19 – 00:21:40:20
Sima Shine
It’s not by bombing. And so, we will see what happens with that. I, I don’t know, there were a lot of rumours of, say, some, boots on the ground, some, ground operation. I I’m not sure that this is something plausible. It might be, if I’m correct, in the war will be ended with an agreement or with some, understandings.
00:21:40:22 – 00:22:16:13
Sima Shine
This will be part of the understandings, no question. What is interesting also is, to mention that yesterday, we, we see now reports coming from the attacks that probably the US has attacked a place called Lakhan, which is, at which was connected. It was built, before the 2014, 20, 25th June. Well, it, but Indians continued to, to build it after the war until the current war.
00:22:16:15 – 00:22:50:16
Sima Shine
Probably there is there, kind of a container, a big container that Iran could do, in the past has been doing and probably was planning to do, explosion with conventional material, but that can resemble a nuclear explosion. I understand it was it was the strike was a very effective and probably, these, this place is not anymore operational and will not be operational in the future.
00:22:50:22 – 00:22:58:19
Sima Shine
It’s very important because it’s connected to the, to the military, a program.
00:22:58:21 – 00:23:20:04
Richard Pater
Thank you. And just one more from me you mentioned before about the, the target of, of drones on the Basij. Checkpoints across the country. What are the other signals that we should be looking out for in terms of kind of how the regime will try and cling on to, to power? And what are what are the levers, you know, beyond the air strikes?
00:23:20:04 – 00:23:26:02
Richard Pater
Are we seeing from this? Right in the U.S.? What are the other levers that can be pulled to bring about? The demise of the regime?
00:23:26:04 – 00:23:59:12
Sima Shine
Yeah, that’s very difficult. Let’s say I it’s not by chance that neither is Trump. No. Netanyahu have said that the purpose of the war is regime change, because everybody understands that you cannot have a regime change in a country with 90 million people, such a huge state, by bombing from the outside, I think, so, we don’t know, in this case, we it’s very difficult to imagine a million going to the street now, or even when immediately after the war stops.
00:23:59:14 – 00:24:22:24
Sima Shine
The question is when the war will be, finished. How you what kind of you run? Will you see after the war, at the end of the day, this Iran entered the war in a very a dire economic situation. They didn’t have enough water and not enough electricity. Inflation, everything. All the all the parameters are very, very bad.
00:24:23:01 – 00:24:51:19
Sima Shine
The war at the end of the war, the sanctions will continue if there is no dramatic agreement, of course. And they and I think, they, this Iran will be much weaker than it started the war, with no, reserves. They’ll say too many reserves. I’ll say, I’ll say, economic capabilities to, to a reconstruct everything, to support the people.
00:24:51:19 – 00:25:18:02
Sima Shine
I think the situation will be very difficult for them, unless they go for a dramatic change, which I don’t see for the time being. And, but I always say, because at the end of the day, it’s a decision. It’s not more. It’s not something that you can measure today. It’s a political decision that the leaders now, the, the one who, is surrounding Mujtaba have to come together to a decision to do it.
00:25:18:04 – 00:25:44:21
Sima Shine
So, it can happen. And, and I think if doesn’t if that doesn’t happen, the more time passes, the more they would be weak. And I do think that people, most of the people will understand that this regime is weak, doesn’t have the, the, the answers to any of the problems. And I think it’s only a question of time before people will go again to the streets.
00:25:44:21 – 00:25:50:22
Sima Shine
And this time, perhaps even in a larger number than it was in the, in the past.
00:25:50:22 – 00:26:03:15
Richard Pater
And what about are there any signals of signs that there are people, soldiers or officers from the regime, either the IRGC or Basij or the or the army who are going to defect? Is any sense of that?
00:26:03:17 – 00:26:18:09
Sima Shine
I heard the president, talking about that. I didn’t see any, any signs that it is happening. Of course, if the if that will, if and when that will happen, that will be in a major way, an important element in the stability of the regime.
00:26:18:11 – 00:26:19:21
Richard Pater
Great. Thank you very much.