What’s happened: The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas took effect last night after the cabinet officially approved the first phase of the Trump plan to return all the hostages.

• The hard right ministers from Jewish Power and the Religious Zionist Party opposed the deal, (with the exception of Minister Ofir Sofer), but the agreement was approved with the backing of the ministers from Likud.
• As of this morning Palestinian sources confirmed that Israeli air strikes in Gaza have now stopped.
• In an unusual step, US special envoy Witkoff and Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner briefly joined the cabinet meeting. Prime Minister Netanyahu thanked his guests and said, “We are at a momentous development. We fought during these two years to achieve our war aims, and a central one of these war aims is to return the hostages, all of the hostages, the living and the dead. And we’re about to achieve that.”
• Witkoff told the ministers, “Here we are today, because Hamas had to do this deal. The pressure was on them, they were backed up, and you’ve got the bigger army, you were making inroads, and that’s what led to this deal.”
• This morning it was cleared publication that Sgt. Maj. (res.) Michael Nachmani, a 26-year-old reservist from Dimona was killed yesterday by Hamas sniper fire on the outskirts of the Shati refugee camp in northern Gaza City.
• In total 914 IDF soldiers have fallen since the war began, 465 of whom were killed in the ground offensive inside Gaza. Sixty-one have fallen since the fighting resumed after the previous hostage deal earlier this year.

The process ahead: Now that the agreement has been approved, the IDF is supposed to complete its withdrawal to the yellow line in the Gaza Strip.

• There are reports this morning that the IDF has already withdrawn from the coastal road, allowing Gazans to travel south to north.  
• Israel has committed not to return to those areas unless Hamas fails to fully implement the agreement    
• Hamas will be required to release all the living hostages within 72 hours.
• Within the same time frame Hamas will turn over all the information it has about the deceased hostages to a mechanism involving Qatar, Egypt, Turkey and the Red Cross.
• In parallel, Israel is preparing for the release of 250 terrorists serving life sentences along with 1,700 residents of the Gaza Strip who were not involved in the October 7 massacre and were arrested after that date. In addition, 22 minors from Gaza who were not implicated in the attacks and were detained later and the bodies of 360 terrorists.
• The Justice Ministry announced that while the full list of prisoners designated for release has been compiled. It has not yet been made available to the public as the victims’ families will be informed first.
• Israeli media reports that several of the most notorious terrorists will not be released. These include senior Fatah figure Marwan Barghouti, Ahmad Saadat, Abbas al-Sayed, and Hassan Salameh. Also excluded were Hakim Awad, who murdered five members of the Fogel family in the West Bank settlement of Itamar in 2011 and is serving five life sentences, and Mahmoud Atallah, a life-term prisoner convicted in the case involving the sexual exploitation of female prison guards.
• Terrorists serving life sentences who are released as part of the deal will be deported either to Gaza or to foreign countries willing to accept them, most likely Qatar or Turkey. They will be permanently banned from entering Israel or the West Bank  
• Notorious terrorists among those to be released:
  • Iyad Abu al-Rub, a senior Islamic Jihad commander from the Jenin area, was found responsible for a series of deadly suicide bombings, including the 2003 attack in Sde Trumot, the 2004 bombing at the Stage nightclub in Tel Aviv, and the 2005 attack at the Hadera market, as well as numerous foiled plots.
  • Ibrahim Alikam murdered Ita Tzur and her 12-year-old son Efraim in an ambush near Ramallah in 1996. He was initially sentenced to life in prison, released at a later date, and re-arrested a decade after his first detention.
  • Bahij Badr, 51, led a Hamas cell in Beit Liqya that carried out multiple bombings, including the attacks at Café Hillel in Jerusalem, a bus stop near Tzrifin, and Har Zion Boulevard in Tel Aviv. He is serving 18 life sentences for murdering 18 Israelis.
  • Jihad Rum murdered Yuri Gushchin, a teenager from the Pisgat Ze’ev in Jerusalem, after kidnapping him three weeks before his scheduled enlistment in the IDF. Gushchin was taken to Ramallah, where he was killed. Rum was sentenced to life plus 20 years in prison.
  • Hussein Rwadra murdered Israeli soldier Eden Atias in a stabbing attack in Afula.
  • Nasser and Mahmoud Abu-Srur murdered Shin Bet security coordinator Haim Nahmani and were arrested in January 1993.
  • Nabil Abu Hadir, a resident of Shuafat, murdered his sister, claiming she had collaborated with the Shin Bet. He evaded capture for 17 years, during which he fled to Palestinian Authority territory and worked as a lecturer at Bethlehem University before being arrested and convicted.
  • Raad Sheikh, a Palestinian police officer, took part in the 2000 lynching in Ramallah, beating Israeli soldier Cpl. Vadim Nurzhitz with an iron bar. He is serving two life sentences.
• As the IDF redeploys US Central Command (CENTCOM) will be establishing a new command and control centre inside Israeli to lead the security coordination.  
• The force will be led by a US general and include hundreds of US  troops responsible for monitoring the implementation of the agreement.
• The US led joint task force will include troops from Egypt and Qatar. No US troops will be deployed directly in Gaza.
• In parallel Israel is facilitating an increase of humanitarian aid into the Strip.
• To coincide with the hostage release on Monday, President Trump is expected to visit Israel for a short visit and address the Knesset.

What’s happened: At midnight UK time the first phase of an agreement was signed that will see the release of all the hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.

• US President Donald Trump announced that both sides had agreed to the first phase of his peace plan. He expressed hope that the hostages would be freed by Monday at the latest. Survivors of captivity and families of hostages spoke on the phone with President Trump and thanked him for his work.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “This is a diplomatic success and a national and moral victory for the State of Israel. From the beginning, I made it clear: we will not rest until all our hostages return and all our goals are achieved. Through steadfast resolve, powerful military action, and the great efforts of our great friend and ally President Trump, we have reached this critical turning point. I thank President Trump for his leadership, his partnership, and his unwavering commitment to the safety of Israel and the freedom of our hostages.”
• President Herzog said, “At this moment, the heart of Israel beats as one with the hostages and their families. As the prophet Jeremiah wrote: “They shall return from the land of the enemy… and children shall return to their borders.” Adding, “I wish to boundlessly thank President Trump. He undoubtably deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.”
• The Hostages and Missing Families Forum issued a statement, “The hostages’ families have received the news of the signing of the agreement to return all 48 hostages with excitement, anticipation and concern. The forum welcomes the signing of the agreement that is meant to bring all the hostages home—the living for rehabilitation among their families, and the deceased for a proper burial in their country. This is important and significant progress on the way to bringing back everyone, but our struggle is not over yet and it will not end until the last hostage is back.”

The deal: The final and official details have not yet been released.

• According to Trump, the living hostages will be freed by Monday.
• The deceased hostages are likely to be released gradually after the living ones.
• Hamas will not hold hostages release ceremonies.
• It is believed that the hostages know about the agreement and Hamas has begun preparations for their release.
• The Nukhba terrorists who invaded Israel on October 7 will not be released. A Hamas source said the hostages will be released in exchange for 2,000 Palestinian prisoners within 72 hours of signing the agreement.
• Israel will control 53 per cent of the Gaza Strip’s territory until the last of the hostages is freed. The IDF will then withdraw to the “yellow line” that President Trump showed on the map last week.
• The significance is that IDF troops will remain in the perimeter and act as a buffer keeping  the Gaza Strip separated from the Gaza periphery communities.
• Part of the success was the US insistence that the first phase had to be implemented as a condition for continuing the negotiations on fully ending the war. This prevented Hamas from raising issues that will be discussed in the second phase. It is hoped that once the hostages are released it will be easier to discuss Hamas demilitarisation and future governance of Gaza.

Photo credit: Donald Trump on Truth Social

Looking ahead: The agreement is to be formally signed at 1000am UK time in Sharm el-Sheikh, at which time the ceasefire will go into effect.

• The signing will trigger a 72-hour countdown to free all the hostages and release the Palestinian prisoners.
• Israel’s security cabinet will meet this afternoon, followed by the full cabinet in order to approve the Palestinian prisoners set to be released.
• At Prime Minister Netanyahu’s invitation President Trump could visit Israel next week and address the Knesset.
• In preparation of the release the Red Cross has been instructed to prepare vehicles and ambulances to turn the hostages over to the IDF quickly.
• The IDF has prepared initial emergency rooms with medical teams and equipment to treat them even before they are moved to hospitals in Israel.

Two year memorial: On Tuesday night tens of thousands of people attended an emotional national memorial ceremony that was held for the October 7 families in Ganei Yehoshua Park in Tel Aviv.

• For the second year in succession, the Kumu movement organised the ceremony for the October 7 families. It began with a poignant minute of silence observed by millions of viewers at hundreds of community screenings across Israel and the rest of the world.  
• After that the father of Sgt. First Class (res.) Ben Zussman, who was killed in action in December 2023, recited the prayer in memory of the fallen. Rabbi Elhanan Danino, whose son Ori Danino was murdered in Hamas captivity, recited the Kaddish prayer on behalf of all the victims.  
• Actor Tzahi Halevi, who fought on October 7 in Kfar Azza, and Ashira Greenberg, widow of Lt. Col. Tomer Greenberg, the former commander of the Golani Brigade’s 13th battalion who was killed in action in Gaza, presided over the ceremony.
• Israel’s leading performing artists, including Shlomi Artzi, Berry Sakharof, Shalom Hanoch, Yardena Arazi , Eden Golan, Hadag Nahash and Rami Kleinstein performed during the course of the evening.
• Among the speakers, Omer Shem Tov, a captivity survivor, said in a speech that the hostages’ release was a fundamental condition for healing Israeli society. Shem Tov said, “On a morning of holiday, happiness and a party with friends—in a single moment our world changed. That night, we were still kids who were dancing life. But in the morning everything was broken. After 505 days of pain, difficulty and mostly longing, I returned home to my family. We are still on the way with 48 hostages who haven’t returned yet. Thank you to the heroes who fought and never returned. Thank you to the men and women fighters who are defending us today as well. We will swear to be worthy of you.”

What’s happening: The Israeli negotiating team is set to begin intensive talks in Sharm el-Sheikh in an effort to reach a hostage deal within the next few days.

• Last night Prime Minister Netanyahu convened the inner security cabinet to discuss preparations for the deal and give instructions to the negotiators. Attending were ministers Katz, Saar, Dermer, Smotrich and Ben Gvir as well as David Zini, the new director of the Shin Bet. 
• The Israeli team currently traveling to Egypt includes Coordinator for the Captives and Missing Brig. Gen. (res.) Gal Hirsch, Hostage Coordinator Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon, Netanyahu’s foreign policy adviser Ophir Falk as well as Mossad, Shin Bet and IDF officials.   
• The top priority is to finalise the first stage of Trump’s plan, which includes the release of all 20 living hostages and the bodies of 28 fallen the hostages within 72 hours. 
• Among the key issues to be discussed:
  • Technical aspects of coordinating the hostages’ handover to the Red Cross. 
  • The parallel release of Palestinian prisoners.
  • The lines of IDF redeployment.
• In his latest comments President Trump said that he had been informed that the first phase of the peace plan should be completed this week. President Trump wrote: “We had some very good meetings…and it looks like it’s working, so we’ll wait for a little while, see how it all turns out. I am asking everyone to MOVE FAST. I will continue to monitor this Centuries old ‘conflict.’ TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE OR, MASSIVE BLOODSHED WILL FOLLOW — SOMETHING THAT NOBODY WANTS TO SEE!”  
• US Secretary of State Rubio said yesterday that 90 per cent of the details of the hostage deal that are to be discussed in Egypt have already been settled and said that the remaining issues must not take weeks to resolve.

Context: For as long as President Trump remains personally invested there is increasing cautious confidence that a deal could be achieved. 

• Despite Rubio’s (and others) confidence there appear to still be significant gaps between the sides. 
• Israel believes that Hamas will ask to expand the Israeli withdrawal in Trump’s map to beyond the yellow line. Israeli officials also anticipate that Hamas will argue that it needs the IDF to withdraw from more areas so that it can round up all the hostages and bring them to the places where they are to be released. 
• While Trump set a strict time frame of 72 hours, Israel expects that Hamas will try to extend the deadline. It believes that Hamas will ask for more time to find the remains of all the deceased hostages, which are located in a number of places across the Gaza Strip. 
• Hamas is expected to demand the release of all the heavyweight prisoners serving life sentences, and to prioritise the oldest and those serving the longest sentences. 
• So far there are highly symbolic prisoners that Hamas has demanded and Israel has refused to release these include:
  • Marwan Barghouti – Convicted in 2004 of five counts of murders. Affiliated with Fatah, he is considered by Palestinians as a potential future leader.   
  • Ibrahim Hamed – Hamas military commander in the West Bank who was convicted of orchestrating multiple suicide bombings during the Second Intifada that killed dozens of Israeli civilians.
  • Abdullah Barghouti – Convicted for manufacturing bombs used in numerous suicide bombings and other mass‐casualty attacks which killed dozens and wounded hundreds. He is serving the longest sentence (67 life terms). 
  • Ahmad Saadat – Deemed responsible for the assassination of Minister Rehavam Ze’evi in 2001, and is a leader in the PFLP.
  • Hassan Salama – Leading figure in Hamas’ Al‑Qassam Brigades, convicted and serving many life sentences. 
  • Abbas al‑Sayed – Convicted for masterminding the 2002 Passover “Park Hotel” suicide bombing in Netanya and other terrorist attacks; sentenced to many life sentences. 
• According to the Trump plan outline Israel should release 250 prisoners serving life sentences and 1700 other prisoners. 
• The problem is that there are only 285 life-term prisoners which leaves Israel with limited flexibility. 
• Israel is also adamant that among 1,700 Palestinians due to be released who were arrested since October 7 2023 they will not be releasing Nukba terrorists that participated in the massacre. 
• The location of the talks in Sharm el-Sheikh represents the Egyptian upper hand in hosting these talks after the failed efforts in Qatar.
• The Hamas delegation is led by Khalil al-Hayya who survived the attempted assassination attempt in Qatar.
• Among Trump’s significant achievements to reach this point was to receive the backing of Hamas supporting Qatar and Turkey. It remains to be seen whether they are prepared to place real substantive pressure on Hamas to conclude a deal, for example by expelling Hamas external leadership if they do not reach an agreement.

Looking ahead: According to the US assessment today’s talks will focus primarily on technical issues, and will not require the involvement of the senior US officials. 

• Only once there is recorded progress will the two lead US envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner join the talks in the next couple of days.
• Similarly, Israel’s lead negotiator Minister Ron Dermer will also only join once progress has been made. Dermer has never held even indirect talks with Hamas in such close proximity.   
• The Americans want to conclude the negotiations and possibly even have the hostages released before October 10 – the day the Nobel Peace Prize is announced.
• Only if there is progress on the first stage will the sides continue to discuss further IDF redeployment and the full disarmament of Hamas. 
• Tomorrow marks the second anniversary of the October 7 massacre. 

Gaza: During Yom Kippur Hamas were able to launch five rockets towards Ashdod, four were intercepted whilst one landed in an open area.

• On Wednesday several projectiles were launched from the Khan Yunis area and landed in the aid distribution site in Rafah, but did not cause any damage. 
• According to the IDF, “Despite the projectile launches fired, the aid distribution site opened yesterday, and thousands of weekly food packages were distributed to Gazan residents, without Hamas’ involvement.” 
• According to COGAT over the last week, 1,517 aid trucks entered Gaza, whist 2,14 trucks were able to distribute aid, with an additional 404 awaiting collection inside Gaza.  
• In addition the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation has distributed more than 175 million meals since their operations began at the end of May. 
• The IDF has continued to expand its incursion and is now operating in the heart of Gaza City, an estimated 1.5 km from the coast. It has also created an additional divide south of the Capital, including security checks on those leaving to the south.  
• Off the coast the Israeli navy took control of more than 40 vessels that participated in the “Gaza Freedom Flotilla.” Over 400 flotilla participants were arrested and brought to Ashdod Port ahead of their deportation from the country, no casualties were reported. 

Waiting on Hamas: Three days after US President Trump presented his peace plan for ending the war in Gaza, (giving Hamas a deadline of three or four days to respond), there has so far been no formal answer. 

• It is understood there is an internal disagreement within the organisation between those who want to reject the plan and those who would prefer to consider it in depth, on condition that significant changes are made. 
• Hamas appears to have several demands:
  • A clear timeline for the IDF to withdraw from the Gaza Strip.
  • Assurances that there will be internal Palestinian rule that isn’t dictated to by external parties. 
  • A refusal to fully disarm.
• Hamas is also looking to coordinate their position with other Palestinian factions. 
• According to the assessments, Hamas will likely choose the “yes, but” option, willingness to continue talks alongside presenting new demands.
• 48 hostages remain in Gaza, including 20 who are still alive. The Trump plan would require Hamas to release all of them within 72 hours of the start of the ceasefire. Hamas has claimed that this deadline might be difficult to deliver, particularly as some are held by different factions.
• Some senior Hamas members are also opposed to the deployment of “a temporary international stabilising force” in Gaza, to be operated by the US and Arab countries which Hamas sees as a new type of occupation.

What’s happened: President Trump unveiled his 20-point plan for ending the war at a White House press conference with Prime Minister Netanyahu, who accepted the plan on Israel’s behalf. The plan has also been endorsed by foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the UAE, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt.

• Speaking after President Trump, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the new plan “will bring back to Israel all our hostages, dismantle Hamas’ military capabilities, end its political rule, and ensure that Gaza never again poses a threat to Israel.” (More details below.)
• Prime Minister Starmer announced his “strong support” for the plan to end the war, saying, “the new US initiative to deliver an end to the war in Gaza is profoundly welcome and I am grateful for President Trumps’ leadership.” French President Macron also endorsed the plan, adding that “Hamas has no choice but to immediately release all hostages and follow this plan.”
• Before the announcement, Netanyahu called the Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani to apologise for the Israeli air strike on Doha on September 9. Specifically, the Prime Minister expressed regret that a Qatari citizen had been killed in the strike (which also eliminated five Hamas officials) and committed not to violate Qatari sovereignty again in the future. Netanyahu also told his Qatari counterpart, “I know your leadership has grievances against Israel and Israel has grievances against Qatar, from support for the Muslim Brotherhood to how Israel is portrayed on Al Jazeera to support for anti-Israel sentiment on college campuses.”

Trump plan in detail: The terms of the Trump plan would see Israel achieving nearly all the goals it set for itself at the war’s outset, but not those of some of the far-right coalition partners.

• All Israeli hostages, living and dead, held by Hamas are to be released in the first 72 hours of the implementation of the agreement, before any changes are undertaken in IDF deployments. In exchange, Israel will release 250 Palestinians serving life sentences for terror offences and 1700 Gazans detained since the war began two years ago, including all women and children. For every dead hostage released by Hamas, Israel will hand over 15 bodies of Palestinians.
• The agreement stipulates a staged withdrawal process of Israeli forces that does not end at the pre-war boundary. Each of three withdrawals is conditioned on benchmarks of Hamas disarmament and the entry of an International Stabilisation Force (ISF) manned by Arab and Muslim countries. The last stage in the agreement will still see Israel hold on to a narrow buffer zone on the border of the Gaza Strip.
• Amnesty will be offered to Hamas members who “commit to peaceful coexistence” and “decommission their weapons.” Presumably allowing Israel to continue to act against those that do neither.    
• An international “Board of Peace” headed by Trump and former Prime Minister Tony Blair will oversee the governance of the Gaza Strip by means of a “technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee” not answerable, initially at least, to the Palestinian Authority (PA).
• The re-entry of the PA into Gaza is conditioned on a set of reform’s in line with Trump’s 2020 Peace Plan. The reforms include provisions for rule of law, financial reform, an end to incitement and changes in school textbooks, and a monopoly of arms in the PA’s civilian law enforcement agencies that decommissioned arms from various militias and terrorist organisations.
• The plan recognises the Palestinian “aspiration” for statehood, but nowhere guarantees it as an outcome. Palestinian self-determination is conditioned on the American demands for a reformed PA. 
• There will be no mass expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza, no American suzerainty, and no “riviera.” The plan guarantees that “no one will be forced to leave Gaza, and those who wish to leave will be free to do so and free to return.” There is no provision anywhere in the plan for Israeli settlement of any part of the Strip or any Israeli annexation of territory.
• The plan includes a massive ramping up of aid. It does not eliminate UNRWA, nor does it eliminate the US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.
• The endorsements of countries such as Saudi Arabia and France are notable as Trump’s plan places conditions on the Palestinians to meet in order to move forward on the long-term aspiration for statehood rather than promising it to them at the outset or, as in Starmer’s initiative, offering recognition as a punishment for Israel. 
• The new plan differs from previous ceasefire initiatives in that it ends the war right away, has all hostages released immediately, and does not involve a full Israeli withdrawal from all territory in the Gaza Strip.
• It is also significant that along with Israel’s Arab allies, this plan is also endorsed by those countries that support Hamas, primarily Turkey and Qatar. 

Looking ahead: Hamas has not publicly stated whether it accepts Trump’s plan. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy to the region, told US media that Hamas had indicted to him that they would “study the plan in good faith and provide an answer.”  He praised this response as “a very positive initial reaction for a group that hasn’t yet had time to fully review our proposal.”

• Besides Trump and Blair, it is not yet known who will sit on the “Board of Peace.” The White House is expected to begin announcing the Board’s membership in the coming days.
• At the press conference, Trump said that if Hamas did not agree to his plan, the US will let Israel “do what you would have to do.” In such a situation, he said, “Israel would have my full backing to finish the job of destroying the threat of Hamas.”
• As part of Netanyahu’s apology to Qatar it was agreed that a trilateral (Israel, Qatar, US)   forum will be convened to work through areas of disagreement.