What’s happened: Israel and Hamas appear on the cusp of reaching a ceasefire deal in Doha.
- While Israel has accepted the outlines of a proposed ceasefire deal, Hamas has still not submitted a formal response to the proposed ceasefire and hostage deal.
- The group is reported to have demanded detailed maps and a clear timeline for the IDF withdrawal from parts of the Gaza Strip in the first stage of the agreement.
- Yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu Prime held meetings with two groups of hostages’ relatives. Netanyahu said that he was “ready [to agree to] a lengthy ceasefire, provided the hostages return. This is a matter of days or hours.” When speaking to another group, Netanyahu said that after President-elect Donald Trump takes office, “the rules of the game will change substantively. Every violation of the ceasefire will be met with a fierce and powerful response and a form of combat we haven’t seen yet.”
- Some hostage families are concerned that the current ceasefire framework may collapse after the first phase, only allowing a third of those currently held in the Gaza Strip to be returned to Israel. Apart from the 33 hostages who qualify as “humanitarian” cases and are slated to be released gradually over a six-week period, another 65 hostages will remain in captivity at this stage.
- The National Security Minister Ben Gvir revealed that he had personally blocked previous ceasefire and hostage release deals and threatened to resign from the current coalition. Ben Gvir also called on his fellow far-right Finance Minister Smotrich join him in opposing the deal.
- While Smotrich has historically vocally opposed ceasefire deals on the grounds that they provide too favourable terms for Hamas including the release of large numbers of convicted terrorists, he has yet to respond to Ben Gvir’s comments.
- Smotrich is understood to be “undecided” on whether or not he will support this deal, and stated that his priorities are “how to fully achieve the goals of the war, total victory, the complete military and civil destruction of Hamas, and returning the hostages home”. Smotrich has demanded guarantees that the war will not end upon the deal’s completion; that the IDF will resume fighting in Gaza; and that changes be made to the way in which the military prosecutes the war.
Context: While a deal seems imminent, there are still unknown components.
- No list of hostages due to be released in the first phase has been provided by Hamas (nor any confirmation as to who is still alive); the specific areas from which Israel will withdraw and the schedule; an inspection mechanism for Gazans to return to the north of the Strip when Israel withdraws; and specifics over transitioning from the first phase to negotiations over the second phase, which are due to start from the 16th day of the ceasefire.
- Further negotiations are hoped to lead to an eventual full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip as well as the release of male hostages and the deceased’s remains, but both parties remain far from this point.
- Netanyahu’s messaging reflects his wish to try and balance different public constituencies. The Hostages Forum has been pushing for a ceasefire for many months, while the Tikva Forum and the Gevurah Forum are considered more ideologically right-wing and have been pushing for total defeat of Hamas.
- In any event, the government is not expected to collapse if the deal is approved. Due to Gideon Saar’s New Hope party joining the coalition last September, Smotrich and Ben Gvir do not have the power to topple the government over the ceasefire deal.
- In parallel, US Secretary of State Blinken delivered what may be his final speech in office where he provided his most detailed yet view of what “the day after” in the Gaza Strip could be. Blinken stated that the Palestinian Authority (PA) should invite international partners “to help establish and run an interim administration with responsibility for key civil sectors in Gaza, like banking, water, energy, health, civil coordination with Israel.”
- He also confirmed that the interim administration would “hand over complete responsibility to a fully reformed PA administration as soon as it’s feasible”, while suggesting that “an interim security mission would be made up of members of partner nation security forces and vetted Palestinian personnel”. This would eventually lead to the establishment of a local PA security force.
- Blinken acknowledged that this plan would be handed over to President-elect Trump’s transition team, and it would be for them to implement once in office in the event that a ceasefire deal is agreed on.
- International partners have indicated a willingness to support and engage with Blinken’s suggestions for a PA governed Gaza, but on the proviso that governance was the responsibility of PA with unified control of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and a pathway to establishing a Palestinian state had been initiated.
Looking ahead: There is hope that that an announcement will be made imminently possibly even later today or tomorrow, with the deal starting to be implemented as early as Sunday.
- It remains unclear if hostages will be released via Egypt or through the other crossings. Israel is likely to once again coordinate their safe transfer via the Red Cross and then have medical facilities on standby to receive the released hostages.
- If Hamas fails to agree terms, the IDF could intensify their operations.