Hostage deal: Israeli officials are very optimistic about the prospects of an agreement being signed as more details have emerged over a potential hostage deal and ceasefire agreement:

• 33 hostages are to be released gradually in the first six-week stage of the deal. The working assumption is that most of them are alive. This will include: female soldiers, female civilians, men over the age of 50, and people who are either ill or wounded.
• In return, Israel will release Palestinian terrorists from Israeli prisons. Only once it becomes clear how many of the hostages are alive will the number and details of the Palestinian terrorists to be released be confirmed.
• Some of those released (convicted murderers and those still deemed a security risk) could be exiled abroad, most likely to Turkey, Egypt, or Qatar.
• Israel will release some Gazans arrested during the last year, but insists that none of the Nukhba terrorists that participated in the October 7th  massacre will be released in the first stage.
• Similarly, Israel is refusing to release the body of former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar (at least in the first stage). There are suggestions that Israel is conditioning its release on information being provided regarding the two civilians, Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, and the bodies of Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul, that have been held in Gaza for over 10 years.
• IDF forces will gradually withdraw from the population centres inside Gaza, but are expected to remain in some capacity on the Philadelphi Corridor (at least in the initial stage) and around the perimeter. 
• At some point in the initial period, Israel will allow Gazans to return to northern Gaza, through a currently unspecified monitoring mechanism.
• The Rafah Crossing will be opened for Gazans to enter Egypt for medical treatment. It is currently unclear who will be operating the crossing.
• During the initial six-week period, negotiations will continue to facilitate the release of the remaining hostages.
• If no further agreement is reached, Israel retains the option to resume the fighting at the end of the first six-week period.  

Fighting continues: In parallel to the talks in Qatar, the IDF continues to operate in the north, south, and centre of the Gaza Strip.

• Yesterday, the IDF suffered more fatalities. Five soldiers were killed and eight more were seriously injured in an operational accident in northern Gaza.
• The soldiers were working with explosives inside a building in Bet Hanoun when the explosives detonated prematurely, collapsing the building. The precise cause of the explosion will be investigated. 
• Overall 53 soldiers have been killed in the last 3 months in northern Gaza. 
• Once more the Houthis fired a missile at Israel last night. Air raid sirens went off at around 3:00 am in central Israel, sending millions of Israelis to their shelters once more.
• This was the third attack on Israel out of Yemen within the last 24 hours. Yesterday evening a missile was intercepted outside of Israeli territory, and a drone was downed in the morning.

Context: The emerging deal is similar to the proposal presented by President Biden in May 2024.

• Since then, more hostages have died and been murdered and hundreds of soldiers have been killed.
• In places where the IDF has withdrawn, Hamas has been able to reconstitute its fighting forces. Thousands of Palestinians have been killed and the extent of the damage and destruction of Gaza has also increased, both as a result of Israeli attacks and the substantial proliferation of IED’s and booby-trapped buildings.
• Israel has killed Hamas leader Sinwar, and dismantled the organisation’s military infrastructure. However, fighters remain able to carry out attack against soldiers and even launch rockets into Israel.
• Israel has significantly weakened Hamas’s allies in the Iranian-led axis, though the Houthis retain the capacity to launch regular attacks at Israel.
• Israel’s successful campaign against Hezbollah and Iran, as well as the fall of Assad in Syria, has created a more favourable strategic environment for Israel and weakened Hamas’s support.
• The election of Trump and his threats have significantly helped extract compromises on all sides. All the parties, including Israel, Egypt, and Qatar are keen to ingratiate themselves with the incoming president.
• In the previous efforts to reach a deal, Netanyahu had insisted on retaining control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Although the details remain unclear, it now appears that the military’s recommendation to implement creative technological solutions and cooperation with Egypt and the US will win out. 
• Domestically, Netanyahu faces opposition from his right-wing partners and some organisations supporting terror victims. Their main concern will be the release of unrepentant terrorist murderers which, as with the release of Sinwar himself in the Shalit deal in 2011, will lead to future terror attacks.     

Looking ahead: If/when a final agreement is reached, it will need to be voted on by the security cabinet, then by the full cabinet.

• The government is then expected to publish the names of the prisoners due to be released. At this point, the Israeli public will be given time to submit appeals against their release.
• Israel is insisting it will retain important assets (territory inside Gaza and heavyweight prisoners) to ensure the release of all the remaining hostages beyond the first stage.
• Only after that will talks about the reconstruction and the future governance of Gaza begin.

What’s happening: Indirect negotiations are ongoing in Qatar. The understanding is that this week will be critical opportunity to secure a deal. 

• Israel has sent its most senior delegation to Qatar to try and close a deal. The mission includes head of Mossad Barnea, the head of the Shin Bet Bar, Maj.-Gen. (res) Nitzan Alon, and the prime minister’s Foreign Policy Adviser, Dr. Ophir Falk. 
• On Sunday Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke to US President Biden and updated him on the progress being made. The prime minister thanked President Biden and President-elect Trump for cooperating in this “sacred mission.”
• On Saturday night Netanyahu met with Trump’s Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff. Witkoff came to Israel from Doha, before returning to the Qatar to rejoin the talks.
• Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told US media on Sunday, “We are very, very close on a hostage deal, and yet being very close still means we’re far because until you actually get across the finish line, we’re not there.”
• Also on Sunday, Foreign Secretary Lammy met his Israeli counterpart Foreign Minister Saar in Jerusalem. They discussed the possibility of an impending deal as well as wider regional issues including Lebanon, Syria and the Iranian threat.

Contours of a deal: Although no details have been confirmed, the deal is thought to resemble the one presented by President Biden back in May 2024 and to include three phases 

• During the first stage it is hoped that around 33 or 34 Israeli hostages will be released in exchange for a six-week ceasefire and the release of hundreds of convicted terrorists in Israeli prisons. Israel will also receive a list of the remaining living hostages. 
• The ratio is not yet known, but Israel is demanding that individuals sentenced to life imprisonment are deported abroad. 
• According to Al-Arabiya, 50 female Palestinian prisoners will be released for every female IDF soldier. 
• Palestinian media has reported that Qadura Fares, who heads the Palestinian Authority’s commission on prisoners, will also join the talks in Qatar. According to Fares, 25 hostages would be released in the first stage of the deal in exchange for 48 terrorists who were released in the Shalit deal and subsequently rearrested, as well as roughly 200 terrorists who are serving life-term sentences, and around 1,000 other prisoners, including “children, women and elderly” Palestinian prisoners in Israeli custody.  According to Fares, the total number of Palestinian prisoners who are to be released (during all the phases) is expected to exceed 3,000. 
• During the first stage, the IDF will redeploy outside population centres. Gazans will be allowed to return to northern Gaza but only after undergoing inspections by a third party that is not the IDF. The details of the inspection mechanism are still being discussed.  
• Israel is insisting on retaining at least a partial presence along the Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza- Egypt border, but is apparently prepared to redeploy out of the Netzarim Corridor that currently bisects the Strip. 
• Israel has continued to insist that there will be no formal end to the war at this point. The semantics are still being negotiated to find the appropriate language that will allow Israel to resume the fighting. 
• Another issue under discussion is the commitment to continue negotiations during the first stage until the second stage, which will involve the return of all the remaining hostages. 

Context: Although there is cautious optimism towards a deal, we have been here before. It remains unclear if Hamas are prepared to do a deal where they give up their most valuable assets.  

• Three IDF divisions continue to operate in the north, south and centre of the Strip. 
• Four more IDF soldiers were killed in Bet Hanoun in northern Gaza over the weekend. They were killed by an explosive device on a road that had been considered part of a safe route. 
• In a separate incident in the Jabalya area in northern Gaza on Friday, eight soldiers were injured, three of them seriously, by a bomb that exploded when they entered a building.  
• Since the start of the IDF’s ground manoeuvre in Gaza 14.5 months ago, 400 soldiers have been killed. This includes eleven soldiers who have been killed and 20 wounded in northern Gaza in the last two weeks. 
• The ground manoeuvre in Bet Hanoun in the north east corner of the Strip is considered critical for restoring security to Sderot and other communities due its close proximity.
• The IDF casualties are the latest example of Hamas being able to rehabilitate its fighting force even if it reverts to guerrilla tactics they have been able to booby trap hundreds of buildings, plant explosives under roads and set up sniper and anti-tank missile positions.
• The IDF is once more reviewing these incidents to learn lessons and change their operating procedures. 
• Ahead of any hostage agreement Prime Minister Netanyahu is working to ensure any deal brought to the security cabinet enjoys the widest consensual support possible.
• Netanyahu already has a majority thanks to support from his Likud party, Gidon Saar’s faction and the ultra-Orthodox. On Sunday night Netanyahu met separately with National Security Minister Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Smotrich to persuade them to support the deal too. 
• Netanyahu reportedly told Smotrich it would be a mistake to damage relations with the Trump administration. As a further incentive he suggested that approving the deal would help facilitate his plans for the West Bank. 
• The current assessment is that even if Smotrich and Ben Gvir don’t support the deal they will not bring down the government.       

Looking ahead: The IDF is preparing for two scenarios – the first in which negotiations succeed and the second in which they fail. 

• In the event of a deal, the IDF will significantly expand the amount of Humanitarian Aid and redeploy forces out of northern Gaza.
• If there is no ceasefire the IDF studying the option of expanding the ground manoeuvre.

What’s happened: The IDF recovered two bodies from a tunnel in Rafah in southern Gaza on Wednesday. 

• One of the bodies was identified as Youssef Ziyadne, a 53 year old Israeli-Bedouin from Rahat who was the father of 18 children. 
• The second body is widely presumed to be his 22 year old son, Hamza, but this has not been formally confirmed. 
• Youssef was kidnapped on October 7^th along with three of his children from the cowshed in Kibbutz Holit. 
• His two younger children Aisha 17 and Bilal 18 were released as part of the hostage deal in November 2023 with Hamza remaining in Gaza.
• Youssef’s body was recovered from Rafah in a special IDF and Shin Bet operation from an area where the IDF had operated in the past. The troops returned after receiving new intelligence about the hostages’ location. 
• Body remains of the terrorist who was guarding him were also found. Though the IDF doesn’t know what caused Youssef’s death or when he was murdered, but it is understood that it was not recent. 
• On hearing the news Israeli leaders from across the political spectrum expressed sorrow.
• The Israeli media carried critical quotes from one member of the Ziyadne family, speaking about the government saying, “They don’t listen to anyone. They’ve decided that they want dead hostages. Do you know why? Because they don’t want witnesses against them if there is ever a commission of inquiry. They don’t want hostages who can testify.”  
• Farhan Qadi, who was rescued from a Rafah tunnel at the end of August, was a childhood friend of Ziyadne. He told Yediot Ahronot, “This broke me, completely broke me, we all cried. Youssef was a neighbour and a friend. This is very hard. The war should have been stopped a long time ago and they should have been brought home. I also put up a mourners’ booth. He was everyone’s friend, everyone’s father, he didn’t deserve this. Nobody deserves this.” 
• There remain 98 hostages held in Gaza for 461 days, 37 of whom have been declared dead.
• Also yesterday, another three IDF soldiers who were killed in Beit Hanoun in the northern Gaza Strip when their tank was hit by an explosive device. All three were in their early 20s. 

Context: Efforts to reach a hostage deal continue in Qatar. There are contradictory reports as to whether a deal is close or not.         

• Steve Witkoff, President-elect Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, met yesterday in Florida with Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer, before heading to Qatar. 
• Arab media reports suggest that Witkoff’s trip to Qatar is designed to approve a finalised deal between Israel and Hamas.
• On this issue Biden and Trump teams appear well coordinated and there is hope that Witkoff’s presence will help galvanise positive momentum.  
• However, Israeli officials reportedly remain sceptical about the prospects of a deal being concluded shortly. Reports suggest that every time an agreement is reached on one issue, Hamas reopens other issues.
• The White House also seem to have doubts about the prospects of hostage deal negotiations ending in success, largely due to Hamas intransience and the substantial gaps that remain between the sides.  
• The talks remain slow and laboured as it takes a long time to receive answers from Hamas in Gaza and then run the decision via their external leadership too. 
• At the same time, Secretary of State Blinken said last night that the sides were very close to an agreement on a ceasefire and releasing hostages.   
• Arab media sources are more confident a deal can be reached soon. According to Arab media the mediators are discussing a 6-8 week ceasefire, increased aid for the Gaza Strip and rebuilding the Gaza Strip’s health system. Israel would receive a list of the living hostages during the ceasefire, plus a number of bodies whose location Hamas knows. An agreement on the Gaza Strip’s future administration would be postponed to a later stage. According to Egyptian officials the agreement would include IDF troops remaining on the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors and that the issue of the Rafah crossing would be discussed separately by Egypt, Israel and the US.

Looking ahead: Trump’s envoy Witkoff is due to arrive in Doha today. 

• There is speculation over what Trump means with his repeated line that “all hell will break loose” if a hostage deal is not concluded by January 20^th.  This could be concerted military pressure, the reduction of Humanitarian Aid and or diplomatic pressure brought to bear on Qatar and Turkey, due to their close relations and ideological affinity with Hamas

Fighting continues in Gaza: Despite the IDF’s ongoing campaign for 15 months, Hamas are still able to launch their own attacks.  

• This morning sirens were heard in Sderot and the surrounding area.
• On Friday Hamas launched a surface-to-air missile that narrowly missed an IDF helicopter but triggered sirens in Kibbutz Be’eri. 
• Also on Friday, two rockets were launched towards Sderot. One landed in an open area, the other near Kibbutz Nir Am. No injuries or damage was reported.
• On Saturday, a Hamas rocket hit the Erez border crossing, which is one of the crossings used to transfer Humanitarian Aid into northern Gaza. It caused damage both to the area of the crossing and adjacent to the humanitarian truck compound.
• Overall around 20 rockets have been fired over the last two weeks.  
• In parallel the IDF continues to operate in the north, centre and south of the Strip. The IDF announced that they struck over 100 terror targets in the Gaza Strip over the weekend.

Humanitarian Aid: According to the latest data from COGAT (Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories), on Sunday 82 trucks were collected from the Gazan side of Kerem Shalom by international organisations. 

• In addition around 720 trucks worth of aid are waiting for collection.
• 1,200 blood units entered Gaza last week via the Kerem Shalom Crossing to the Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis. 3,000 units of plasma were also delivered to support blood tests and medical care at hospitals.
• Since the beginning of December, over 1,200 Humanitarian Aid trucks have entered northern Gaza through the Erez Crossing carrying food, medical supplies, and shelter equipment. 

Hostage negotiations: A Saudi newspaper has published a list of 34 hostages to be released in the first stage of a potential deal.

• The list includes the two Bibas family children, 10 women including the five IDF spotters and the dual British-Israeli Emily Damari, 11 older men and 11 men aged under 50.
• However, Hamas has refused to say who on the list is alive. Instead they are claiming it will take a week or so to determine the condition of each of the hostages.
• Hamas continues to insist that any deal must include an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and a permanent ceasefire. 
• Israeli negotiators have been in Qatar since Friday, but there has not yet been a breakthrough.
• The Prime Minister’s Office released a statement this morning, “The list of hostages that has been published in the media was not provided to Israel by Hamas but was originally given by Israel to the mediators in July 2024. As yet, Israel has not received any confirmation or comment by Hamas regarding the status of the hostages appearing on the list. Israel will continue to act relentlessly for the return of all of our hostages.”
• A senior Israeli official told Israel Hayomnewspaper, “The negotiations have continued to advance the entire time, and we have very wisely chosen not to share every detail because that is damaging and is painful for the hostages’ families.”
• Several outstanding issues remains: Israel has continued to insist on receiving a definitive list of living hostages to be release in the first stage. The sides then need to agree on the number and identity of Palestinian prisoners whom Israel will release in exchange for them, and where the prisoners will be released to. 
• A second obstacle is Hamas’s demand to receive guarantees that the first stage will lead to a second and third stage, in which the war will end. 
• Prime Minister Netanyahu has continued to insist that the fighting will be resumed.  
• According to Yediot Ahronot, the sections of the agreement that address a formal end to the war have been worded vaguely. Hamas’s working assumption is that Trump might not allow Israel to renew the war in full force if a ceasefire agreement does go into effect. 

Hamas’s psychological warfare: On Saturday, Hamas released another propaganda video showing signs of life from hostage Liri Albag, 19. Her family has asked that people do not share the video or photos from it.

• Albag was kidnapped on October 7^th 2023 from the Nahal Oz military outpost.
• The Albag family released a statement after watching the video, “We watched today in horror the video that Hamas released, and we can’t breathe. That isn’t the Liri we know—that is a shadow of Liri. Albeit, [the video is] a sign of life from her, but this wasn’t the video that we had prayed for and it certainly isn’t an insurance policy. The perennially strong Liri appears broken and crushed. She says the words that they forced her to say and sent a lot of messages beyond that, pessimistic and survival.” 
• Following the release of the film Liri’s parents received a call from both President Herzog and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Herzog told them that the “Israeli delegation that is holding the negotiations has to remain in the negotiating room until all 100 hostages return home.”
• Her mother Shira Albag said, “We demanded from the prime minister and defence minister that the negotiating team should not return without an agreement. We understood from their remarks that they are prepared and willing to reach an agreement and to get all of the hostages back home.”

Hostage deal negotiations: There are mixed reports over the prospects of reaching a deal.

• Gaps remain between the Israeli and Hamas negotiating positions but talks are ongoing. 
• One issue still to be resolved are the number of hostages who are to be released. Hamas is thought to be prepared to free a double-digit number of living hostages, but Israel is pushing for Hamas to agree to a higher number. Hamas has said it is prepared to make up the difference by releasing dead bodies in the first stage of the deal. 
• According to an Egyptian report, five female soldiers are to be released in the first stage in exchange for 250 terrorists. 
• Though Hamas has not provided a list of hostages to be released, it has passed to Israel via the mediators a specific list of over 200 heavy-weight terrorists whom it insists will be released in any deal that is reached. Israel has demanded the right to veto the release of many of the people who are on the list. 
• The parties also remain at odds over the ongoing IDF presence along the Philadelphi Corridor and the Netzarim Corridor. Hamas has insisted on a large IDF troop withdrawal in the first stage of the deal. Israel is willing to consider a withdrawal only in the subsequent stages. 
• A third issue in contention is Hamas’s demand to end the war, whereas Prime Minister Netanyahu insists on returning to fighting.
• According to Kan News, an agreement has almost been concluded and that the remaining obstacles could be overcome. Israel and Hamas have agreed that any issue about which the parties disagree will be deferred to the second stage of the deal.
• It has also been revealed that Hamas has presented a new proposal in the negotiations: A one-week ceasefire in which no hostages would be released. According to the proposal, Hamas will submit a list of hostages it is capable of releasing after the fourth day of the ceasefire, and Israel will decide at the end of the seventh day whether it is prepared to accept that list or, instead, whether its choice is to resume fighting.

What’s happened: Overnight, the commander of the Hamas police in Gaza Muhammad Saleh and Hussam Shahwan, head of Hamas Internal Security Forces in Khan Yunis, were killed in an air strike in Khan Yunis. Nine others were reportedly killed in the attack.

• Saleh held a rank equivalent to major-general while Shahwan held a rank equivalent to brigadier-general.
• Earlier this week, an IDF drone targeted and killed Abed Al-Hadi, a Hamas Nukhba squad commander of Khan Yunis that had led the 7th Octobermassacre in Kibbutz Nir Oz.
• Rockets continue to be fired at Israel from Gaza. At midnight on Tuesday, as the new-year began, two rockets were fired from the central Gaza Strip towards Netivot. One rocket was intercepted and the other landed in an open area. No one was injured. 
• The IDF has also continued to operate in the Rafah area of southern Gaza. During a recent raid soldiers located and dismantled a rocket and weapons manufacturing facility containing medium to long-range rockets.