What’s happening: A deal has been reached for the release of 602 Palestinian detainees who were initially scheduled to be released last weekend.
- Israel refused to release them on time following a series of Hamas violations of the ceasefire agreement.
- Israeli anger was especially piqued by the theatrical ‘ceremonies’ Hamas was staging for hostage releases which were viewed by Israel as humiliating and grotesque.
- The initial retiurn of an anonymous Palestinian woman, instead of the body of murdered hostage Shiri Bibas, hardened the Israeli stance even more (Shiri’s body was later repatriated).
- There was further fury at the psychological torture of filming two hostages to witnesses a release ceremony of other hostages.
- The new deal will see the 602 detainees released this week in exchange for the bodies of four slain Israeli hostages. This marks the end of the first stage of the agreement.
- President Herzog eulogised Oded Lifshitz at his funeral yesterday. “I stand here, on the soil of your homeland, as President of the State of Israel, on behalf of the State of Israel, I ask you—beloved Oded, I ask Yocheved and your dear family—for forgiveness. Forgiveness that the State of Israel did not protect you, your family, and your kibbutz. Forgiveness that in the face of such inhuman cruelty, you were left to stand alone. Forgiveness that we did not manage to rescue you and bring you and all your friends home safely, out of the clutches of the murderers. I ask forgiveness.”
- Lifshitz’s 86-year-old wife Yocheved, herself a liberated hostage, also spoke. “Our abduction and your death have shaken me to the core. We fought all through the years for social justice, for peace. To my sorrow, we were hit by a terrible blow by those we helped on the other side. I stand here staggered to see the number of graves, and the terrible destruction of our community that was completely abandoned on October 7th.”
- The funeral of Shiri Bibas and her two children Ariel and Kfir is underway in southern Israel. The three will be buried in a private ceremony in Tzohar, a town near the family’s home in Nir Oz, the kibbutz in which they lived and from which they were abducted on October 7th 2023.
- Ofri Bibas, sister of Yarden, said earlier today: “Through the window, I see today a broken nation. We will not rise or be rehabilitated until the last of the hostages is home. Thank you all.”
- The IDF released another of its operational investigations of October 7th, this one from the massacre at Kibbutz Nahal Oz. The inquiry detailed the waves of attacks that morning and the army’s unpreparedness for fending off the attack as well as missed signals in the hours leading up to the attack that should have, but did not, lead to a higher state of alert.
- Further operational inquiries are due to be released in the coming days, including of the events at the nearby Nahal Oz outpost where 53 soldiers were killed (some of which was leaked to Israeli media yesterday), as well as at Kibbutz Kfar Aza and Moshav Netiv Haasara. The inquiry into the events at the Nova festival is due later.
Context: There is no sign from either of the warring parties or the various mediators that Israel and Hamas are close to reaching an agreement on the implementation of the second phase of the ceasefire deal.
- US envoy Steve Witkoff has been trying to broker an extension of the first phase of the ceasefire. Such an extension would see more exchanges of hostages for prisoners, particularly hostages who are considered to be in need of immediate medical care.
- The remaining hostages are all male and under 50, and the liberation of each one of these would presumably require Israel to pay a higher “price” in the number of Palestinian prisoners released in exchange. Furthermore, it is unlikely that an extension of the first stage would cover all living hostages as Hamas could be assumed to want to hold on some in order to attain its larger political goals in the war.
- If no agreement is reached to extend the first stage Israel is preparing to renew intensive fighting with the backing of the US. It is hoped that the credibility of this threat will persuade Hamas to extend the deal.
- A renewed outbreak of fighting, should the ceasefire collapse, will happen in a much different global strategic environment than that which obtained when the war broke out in October 2023. The Iranian “ring of fire” which surrounded Israel in 2023 has been broken in Lebanon and Syria, (but not Yemen), while the US administration today will not set limits on Israeli firepower.
- Beyond the government, other Israeli politicians have presented their own “day after” plans for Gaza. Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats, called for a moderate Palestinian force to govern Gaza while maintaining freedom of action for the IDF.
- Leader of the Opposition Lapid presented a plan which called for Egypt to take responsibility for Gaza for 15 years during which Egypt’s $155 billion foreign debt would be wiped clean by the international community. Lapid explained that Israel cannot agree for Hamas to remain in power, the Palestinian Authority is incapable of administering Gaza, Israeli occupation is undesirable and a state of ongoing chaos is a grave security threat to Israel. At the same time, the Egyptian economy is on the brink of collapse and poses a threat to the stability of Egypt and the entire Middle East. Lapid said that during the 15 year period, Gaza would be rebuilt and conditions for self-government created.
- Lapid suggested that the current ceasefire be completed until the release of all the hostages, Egypt take control over Gaza via a UN Security Council resolution, defined as a “guardianship,” with the goal of turning Gaza Strip over to the PA Authority following a process of reform and de-radicalisation, with measurable criteria. At the same time, a reconstruction process would begin under Egyptian supervision, while Saudi Arabia and the Abraham Accord signatories would participate in work groups and the US would invest in Gaza. He also called for Egypt to allow every resident of Gaza who wishes to leave and has where to go to do so in an regulated manner.
Looking ahead: The first phase of the ceasefire is expected to be completed tomorrow, with the release of four bodies of dead hostages. According to the agreement Israel will simultaneously release the 602 prisoners.
- Of the prisoners due to be released:
- Dozens of them were serving life sentences for murdering Israelis.
- Some of them are responsible for dispatching the horrific suicide bombing attacks from the mid-1990s.
- Fifty of them are serving life sentences, and 47 of them are terrorists who were freed in the Shalit deal and were subsequently reincarcerated after they violated the terms of their release